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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
MLB Baseball Premium Edition - August 5, 2005

darrell,

Six picks today.

View past 2005 MLB picks.

Good luck today, darrell!

The Wunderdog

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Premium Picks
**Milwaukee -118 over PHILADELPHIA (7:05 EST)
*Milwaukee/PHILADELPHIA UNDER 8.5 Runs

Sheets hurls tonight for the Brew crew who really have had a nice season all things considered. Milwaukee bats are hot and the Brewers are 20-8 after batting .350 or better over a 3 game span since 1997. Philadelphia is 8-25 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee has the small nod here in the bullpen and their lineup is superior at this point in the season. Abreu had gone missing until yesterday, when he finally dropped a bomb on the Cubs. Sheets enters in awesome form, winning his last two starts while holding his opponents to only 3 Earned Runs in 16 Innings Pitched. We find Sheets going UNDER in 12 of 14 games when he starts on the road after allowing 1 Earned Run or less in his previous starts. In fact, 5 of the last 7 games in this series have gone UNDER the Total, including the last four times in which Sheets or Lidle has started on the mound. Expect more of the same as both of them take the mound on Friday, especially as this Philadelphia squad has struggled against Sheets, even though they had defeated him the last two times they've squared off, they've scored just 3 Earned Runs. We side with the Brewers for two stars and the UNDER for one star here.

**WASHINGTON -185 over San Diego (7:05 EST)

What in the lords name has happened to the Padres? The hapless Giants are only 4.5 out in the West, which is a disgrace. Washington looks like it has sanpped out of its considerable funk and looks to keep it rolling this weekend. San Diego is 1-9 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) this season. Look for a low scoring game here, with the Nationals getting just enough hits to get a narrow victory. Two stars on the Nats here.

*Atlanta/ST. LOUIS UNDER 8 Runs (8:10 EST)

Great pitching duel here with Smoltz vs. Mulder. In his last three against the normally explosive Cardinals, Smoltz has allowed just seven runs in 22 innings. He comes in with a 2.66 ERA that drops to 2.25 at home. Mulder sports a 2.45 ERA over his last three starts and both of these teams have very solid bullpens. Atlanta's has a 3.62 road ERA while St. Louis' pen has a 3.30 ERA at home. Atlanta's entering their fourth straight road game tonight and they are 25-12 UNDERthis season after 3 or more consecutive road games. The Braves bat just .247 on the road. Both teams will struggle to score in this one. One star on the UNDER.

***Boston -127 over MINNESOTA (8:10 EST)

The Twins limp into this series having lost Torii Hunter, their lifeline, for the majority of the rest of the regular season, basically dashing any hopes for a playoff run. Hunter is the team's best defensive player and the igniter on offense as well. Underdogs with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 11-49 (18%) since 1997. The Red Sox just mash right handed pitching and should feast on Radke tonight in the Homer Dome. Boston comes in having won their last eight, while the Twins are 1-6 over the same time period. Three stars on the Red Sox here.

**Houston -115 over SAN FRANCISCO (10:15 EST)

After watching the Giants against the Rockies this week, seeing them nearly give a road sweep the the league's worst road team, we gotta fade 'em here. Simply put, they are not hitting the ball. Outside of a 5-run inning last night, they could barely score against Colorado's terrible road pitching. Gotta wonder where this team would be if Bonds and Alou were healthy but without them, they are pretty bad. Pettite has been the best pitcher in baseball over the past two months and should have little trouble mowing down the Giant batters tonight. Home teams at +125 to -125 off 3 consecutive game versus a division riva are only 26-58, in August games over the past five seasons. Despite a few recent setbacks, Houston is still 23-8 in the second half of the season this season. Two stars on the Astros here.

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How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.

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Good Luck.

 

The Wunderdog

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