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**BOSTON
-265 over Kansas City (1:05 EST)
Nailed
the five star last night on Boston. Many of the same
reasons apply tonight. Just a big time mismatch with
a team that's on fire and motivated against a team
that can't compete. Again... home favorites
of -200 or moreat 54% to 62% SU off
3 or
more
consecutive wins are 95-18 (84%) when playing
a team with a losing record over the last 5 seasons.
Road underdogs of +175 to +250 averaging 0.9 or
less HR's/game on the season off 5 straight games
where they stranded 7 or less runners on base are just
9-64 (12%) since 1997. After last night, Boston is
27-2 as a home
favorite of -250 to -330 over the last 3 seasons. Two
stars on the BoSox.
*PHILADELPHIA
-102 over Chicago Cubs (1:05 EST)
Mark
Prior just can't beat the Phils while his counterpart
Bret Myers looks for his fourth straight win. Over
his last three, Myers sports a 2.39 ERA and over
the past two seasons, he's 15-3 when working on 5
or 6 days rest. Philly blasts
it at home scoring
5.3 runs per game on .283
hitting. Home teams off
4 straight games with no home runs, and a hot bullpen
whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games are 65-30
(68%) since 1997. One star on Philly.
*SAN
FRANCISCO -123 over Colorado (3:35 EST)
Wow.
The Rockies have taken two straight on the road from
the G-Men. If the Giants could just score 4 runs they'd
have a couple of W's but noooooo. We almost stayed
away from this one because we've gotten burned on the
last two but putting emotion aside, this is yet another
good pick. Can the Giants score 4 or more? If they
do, they should have this. If not, they may give away
a third to the worst road team in baseball. I just
don't see the Rockies getting their first road sweep
in more than year. Not these Rockies. Not on the road.
Their offense is just terrible away from home: 3 runs
per game, .230 hitting, .287 OBP. They are 4-18 as
a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season including
0-9 at +100 to +125. Again, this comes down to San
Francisco bats waking up. Can Colorado hold them down
yet again? Consider that road underdogs
allowing
5.3 or more runs/game on the season, after allowing
3 runs or less 2 straight games are just 26-72 (26%)
since 1997. One star on the Giants.
***LA
ANAHEIM -144 over Baltimore (4:05 EST)
Stick
a fork in the Orioles as they are done. They've dropped
seven straight and fourteen of their last fifteen!
Can they turn things around on the road tonight against
a superior Angels club who've taken the first two
in commanding fashion (18-5)? No way Jose. Rookie
Ervin Santana comes in with a 3-0 record and 2.95 ERA
in his last three starts. and he's 5-2 overall at home
this season. He'll face a Baltimore squad that's barely
managing 3 runs per game over their last seven. Take
the better team with momentum against the team that's
doubting themselves. Three stars on Anaheim.
*ST.
LOUIS +102 over Florida (8:10 EST)
AJ
Burnett has certainly picked things up since the trade
rumors started. But, he'll face a St. Louis team that
is 35-21 at home and scoring 7 runs per game over their
last seven games. Over the past two seasons, Burnett
is just 3-11 on
the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 and he's 2-11 in
night road games. St. Louis puts Jeff Suppan on the mound,
no slacker himself. The
difference
here
in
what
should
be a close game, is the bullpen. St. Louis' has a 3.35
home ERA while Florida's is just terrible on the road
(6.42 ERA). Florida is 4-12 this season when facing a
good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. One star
on the home club here.
**Houston
+113 over ARIZONA (9:40 EST)
Oooh
- smokin' hot. The Astros have now won 15 of their last
17 and go for the road sweep against the D-Backs. Normally
it's tough to back road teams for a sweep but this is
not a normal situation. How can you not take the Astros
right now - especially as an underdog? And, Arizona
is sub-.500 at home this season, scoring 4.2 runs per
game.
Houston's
pitching
has been
phenomenal and momentum is just on their side right now.
Arizona is 2-10 at home vs. an NL starting pitcher
whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last 2 seasons
and their bullpen is bad. Teams +125 to -125 with a very
bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season
against
opponent
with
a starting pitcher
whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season are just 14-46
(23%) over the last 5 seasons. Two stars on the Astros.
Check
up-to-the-minute lines on these games:
MLB
Lines & Odds
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