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NFL Preseason Picks - How to make the best predictions
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NFL Picks for the 2007 season  |
That being said, there are some indicators of ATS (against the spread) results in the preseason. In fact, the same issues that make these games more difficult to handicap make them more difficult for lines-makers to peg. Remember, it doesn’t take much of an edge - if we can beat 52.4% with our picks, we bank!
In 2002, we went 4-1-1 ATS in the preseason. In 2003, we went 9-6 ATS, in 2004, we went 11-9-1 ATS and in 2005 we were an incredible 20-8 in the "games that don't matter." Despite going just 13-14 in 2006 (our first losing year), overall, we've hit 60% for +26.3 units.
We make our preseason picks by analyzing the following:
Coaches/Philosophy
Do they take the preseason seriously or use it for its
intended purpose (to test out players and new schemes)?
For example, take a look at Bill Parcells. His focus on making every play count, whether in a real game or practice, and his disciplined approach has resulted in his team covering the spread in roughly two thirds of the preseason games he has coached. The retired Marv Levy of Buffalo was just the opposite and was a great "go-against" preseason coach. We track every coach's record and look for signals as to how they approach these games. Keep an eye on Jack Del Rio. In three seasons with Jacksonville, he has gone 8-4 with two 3-1 campaigns and no losing years, indicating he takes the preseason seriously. On the flip side, Andy Reid, despite a 3-2 campaign last year, has only won 36% of his preseason games in Philly.
Be careful, however, about blindly betting "good" coach vs. "poor" coach. Over the past five years, "good" coaches (50%+ preseason ATS record) were 51% ATS while "poor" coaches (<50% preseason ATS) were 44% ATS. There is a difference, but it isn't huge. Further analysis is required to uncover more predictive trends. For example, put that "poor" coach in a favorite position and he'll cover only about a third of the time. Find another trend or two to combine with that and we have a very good bet.
Finally, "new" NFL coaches have more to prove and more to play for than experienced vets who are secure in their jobs. In 2002, the four "new" head coaches went 11-5 (69%) ATS. In the 2003 preseason, the five head coaches who were new to their team went 12-8 (60%) against-the-spread. But in 2004, new head coaches went only 13-15 ATS. In 2005, they bounced back, going 8-3 ATS. In 2006, they again took a step backwards, going just 16-17 ATS. We look for new head coaches in certain situations where they have an advantage vs. playing them blindy.
Team Depth
Backups play more than starters and some teams' backups
are better than other teams' starters. Look for situations
in which starters will be playing against backups. Teams
with veteran starters who are not fighting for their
job will tend to play these starters very little in the
preseason. Look for teams with a couple of good players
fighting for the same job. These players will get extra
playing time as coaches try to determine the starter.
Also look for teams with great backups, especially at
quarterback. Some teams’ second or third-string
quarterbacks could start for other teams. When they get
to play against their opponent’s second or third-stringers,
they’ll rack up the yards – and the points.
Game Plan
Coaches often announce their intentions for upcoming games.
Sometimes they are looking to give a specific player
a lot of playing time and other times they are just looking
to get out of there as quickly as possible without any
injuries. Sometimes after several weak preseason performances,
coaches challenge their teams to show something before
the regular season starts and meaningless game becomes
meaningful.
Preseason Historical Systems and Trends
It is true that some simple older popular trends (bet on
a team in its second preseason game if its opponent is
playing its first) are no longer predictive (this one
is <50% over the past five years). However, there
remain very good predictive trends/systems for the preseason.
For example, dogs of over 7 points do very well, especially
when facing a team off a win. We track and apply over 150 preseason situations and trends when making our picks.
Keep these items in mind when handicapping the NFL preseason. We utilize a system that takes all of these variables into account on our preseason picks.
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