How
to Bet the NFL Playoffs
How to select your NFL Playoffs Picks
We just love the NFL postseason. Although there is obviously
an opportunity to do well during the regular season,
the NFL
playoffs provide a much more consistent and predictable
set of circumstances. As opposed to going primarily
with
underdogs as we do during the regular season, we spread it
around in the post-season. In fact, we actually lean
towards
the
favorites
in our NFL picks.
Why is that you ask? Here
are some of the reasons:
1. THE CREAM RISES TO THE TOP IN THE NFL PLAYOFFS
In
the NFL playoffs, the best teams usually win, and cover
the spread. Identifying the best team is not always
easy,
but if you can, you can consistently win in
the postseason. There are a myriad of stats to look
at including straight-up
record, core statistics (points, rushing, passing,
etc) and non-core stats (sacks, punting yardage, etc).
Look at yards per play and yards per point. I
utilize a system that weights statistics based
on their historical predictive properties.
2. THERE IS NO “NEXT WEEK” FOR LOSERS…
AKA THE “RUN UP THE SCORE” SYNDROME
In
the regular season we can spot situations where a favorite
is poised to be upset by a supposedly
lowly underdog.
In
the regular season, even very strong
teams
sometimes let down their guard. In the playoffs,
letdowns rarely
happen.
This is no surprise. Players and coaches understand that
if they lose this game, they go
home. So, the stronger teams
play up to their true ability. The
favorites in the NFL don’t
often let up at the end of a game
to allow a dog a late
cover. In fact, in the playoffs teams run up the score.
Even if they are up by two touchdowns,
the winning team
wants to leave NOTHING to chance and will take the opportunity
to score another two if they can.
The unwritten rule in
the NFL (don’t run up the score) goes out the window
in January as opposing coaches and
players don’t
frown on having another team pile
on. They would do it
if the roles were reversed!
3. HOME SWEET HOME!
It
is widely recognized that home field advantage in the
NFL is important. Regular season spreads
are routinely adjusted
by about 2.5 to 3.5 points
in favor of
the home team. But
in the playoffs, home field
advantage cannot be overstated. Home squads
don’t have to travel after a long brutal
season. The home field
energy from the crowd is especially intense in January.
Weather plays a big role (just ask a
warm weather team like
Tampa Bay having to travel to Green Bay or Buffalo
in January). And, the better team usually
“earned” home field advantage by playing awesome
football for 16 weeks. The lines-makers typically cannot
adjust
the spread enough to account
for these factors. Over the past eight seasons, home teams
have covered the spread nearly
64% of the time! Home underdogs
do even better. Home dogs are very rare (we have seen only
13 of them since 1982)
but if you find one – jump
on it as they are 11-1-1
against the spread
in those games.
4. STATISTICAL HANDICAPPING INCREASES IN IMPORTANCE
In
the playoffs, we have reliable data from 16 games worth
of stats to evaluate. As
stated earlier, the best teams
step up in January
and there are fewer situational letdowns and surprises.
The teams
with the advantage
in key statistical
areas usually
win and cover. Knowing
which stats to emphasize an lead to very
successful spread
predictions.
Keep these items in mind when handicapping
the NFL playoffs. Our postseason picks utilize
systems
built around
these variables.
Now, read about our approach to SuperBowl Picks.
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Free NFL picks this season... 
Click
here to see our philosophy for the NFL
regular season.
Click
here to see our philosophy for the NFL
preseason.
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