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Wunderdog
NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions
2003
Weekly NFL Picks
Wildcard
Weekend
Can Favre Keep Delivering?
Week 17 provided
a strong finish with a 4-2 showing against the spread.
I was on the right side of the Arizona’s
wild finish that knocked Minnesota out of the playoffs
after a 6-0 start. Why Tice still has a job, I don’t
know. I also correctly picked Detroit covering as a huge
dog +10 against St. Louis. I also was right with New Orleans
over Dallas and Houston over Indianapolis. I missed the
mark with Washington and Baltimore, who won but did not
cover due to a crazy 4th and 1 fake punt 75-yard touchdown
by Pittsburgh.
I am really
glad we’re entering the playoffs off
a winning week and with some momentum. Can’t say
the same for the Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, or St.
Louis Rams. Will it matter for these teams? Read on...
Here’s
an excerpt from a newsletter from last year with some
tips for handicapping the NFL post season:
I just love the postseason. Although there is obviously
an opportunity to do well during the regular season, the
playoffs provide a much more consistent and predictable
set of circumstances. As opposed to going primarily with
underdogs, I spread it around in the postseason. In fact,
I actually lean towards the favorites. Why is that? Here
are some of the reasons:
1. THE CREAM RISES TO THE TOP
In the NFL playoffs, the best teams usually win, and
cover the spread. Identifying the best team is not always
easy, but if you can, you can consistently win in the
postseason. There are a myriad of stats to look at including
straight-up record, core statistics (points, rushing,
passing, etc) and non-core stats (sacks, punting yardage,
etc). Wunderdog utilizes a system that weights statistics
based on their historical predictive properties.
2. THERE IS NO “NEXT WEEK” FOR LOSERS… AKA
THE “RUN UP THE SCORE” SYNDROME
In the regular season we can spot situations where a
favorite is poised to be upset by a supposedly lowly
underdog. In the regular season, even very strong teams
sometimes let down their guard. In the playoffs, letdowns
rarely happen. This is no surprise. Players and coaches
understand that if they lose this game, they go home.
So, the stronger teams play up to their true ability.
The favorites don’t often let up at the end of
a game to allow a dog a late cover. In fact, in the playoffs
teams run up the score. Even if they are up by two touchdowns,
the winning team wants to leave NOTHING to chance and
will take the opportunity to score another two if they
can. The unwritten rule in the NFL (don’t run up
the score) goes out the window in January as opposing
coaches and players don’t frown on having the score
run-up against them. They would do it if the roles were
reversed!
3. HOME SWEET HOME!
It is widely recognized that home field advantage in
the NFL is important. Regular season spreads are routinely
adjusted by about 3 to 3.5 points in favor of the home
team. But in the playoffs, home field advantage cannot
be overstated. Home squads don’t have to travel
after a long brutal season. The home field energy from
the crowd is especially intense in January. Weather plays
a big role (just ask a warm weather team like Tampa Bay
having to travel to Green Bay or Buffalo in January).
And, the better team usually “earned” home
field advantage by playing awesome football for 16 weeks.
The lines-makers simply cannot adjust the spread enough
to account for these factors. Over the past eight seasons,
home teams have covered the spread nearly 64% of the
time! Home underdogs do even better. Home dogs are very
rare (we have seen only 13 of them since 1982) but if
you find one – jump on it as they are 11-1-1 against
the spread in those games.
4. STATISTICAL HANDICAPPING INCREASES IN IMPORTANCE
In the playoffs, we have reliable data from 16 games
worth of stats to evaluate. As stated earlier, the best
teams step up in January and there are fewer situational
letdowns and surprises. The teams with the better team
in key statistical areas usually win. Knowing which stats
to emphasize an lead to very successful spread predictions.
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- This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings -
-------------------------------------
UNDERRATED / BY / OVERRATED
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BAL 6.2 TEN
DEN 5.8 IND
GB 1.8 SEA
DAL 0.1 CAR
For a detailed description of how to use the Matchup Power
Ratings, click here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/matchup-power-ratings.html
What is this
money-line thing? What is meant by playing a team “straight-up”?
Click here for an overview: http://www.freeunderdog.com/moneyline.html
On to this week's selections...
BALTIMORE +1
over TENNESSEE (at Baltimore – Saturday
4:30PM Eastern)
A running game and a defense and getting points at home
in the playoffs. Ohhhh baby! Next to Dallas, Baltimore
owns the best defense playing this weekend. The Ravens
play well against Tennessee, having won five straight matchups
and covering the spread 10 of the last 14 times these two
have met. Big-time players make big-time plays in big games.
Baltimore has the league’s offensive player of the
year, running back Jamal Lewis, who is on a roll. They
also have the league’s best defender and AP Defensive
Player of the Year, Ray Lewis who will be so fired up on
Saturday it will be downright scary. The Titans are strong
against the run (allowing a league-low 81 yards per game
on the ground) but if anyone can find a way to crack the
code, it’s Jamal Lewis. He is big and quick and can
beat you by pounding you up the middle or getting outside
on a cut-back run. Because of Lewis’ feats and the
way the Ravens started the year offensively, a lot of people
think of them as one-dimensional. But consider this: since
Anthony Wright took the reigns six weeks ago, Baltimore
has scored 30 points per game and has gone 5-1 straight-up.
Wright has contributed with 9 touchdowns during those games,
demonstrating that Baltimore can beat you through the air,
too. On Saturday, Wright will be facing one of the league’s
worst pass defenses. In fact, only two teams gave up more
yards through the air this year. Back to Baltimore’s
defense: The Ravens finished third in the league. It’s
hard to imagine Ray Lewis getting better but he is. He
led his team this year (a linebacker!) in interceptions.
On the other side of the ball, the reason to worry is McNair.
This guy really can win games by himself. But I expect
Baltimore’s defense to make that hard on him. And
if he doesn’t win it by himself, Tennessee doesn’t
have a chance. They are ranked seventh-worst in the league
in rushing. Tell me again why this team is favored on the
road? Baltimore plays better in the postseason. The Ravens
are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in January while Tennessee
is 0-4 in the same month. My Matchup Power Ratings tell
us that Baltimore should be favored in this one. Why argue?
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Baltimore straight-up to win
DALLAS +3 over CAROLINA (at Carolina – Saturday 8:00PM
Eastern)
Who isn’t still amazed that Parcells was able to
take a team that was 15-33 over the past three seasons
and get them into the playoffs in his first year? Will
his magic last another week? You bet! This guy knows how
to motivate and how to win playoff games. He’s won
playoff games with all three of his previous teams, taking
the Jets to the AFC championship, the Patriots to the Super
Bowl and winning the whole enchilada with the Giants. This
year, he’s gotten his team to over-perform but he’s
actually got some serious weapons (at least on defense).
He’s got the league’s top-ranked D, allowing
a very stingy 253.5 yards and 16.2 points per game. This
defense has no glaring weaknesses as they are top-three
in the league against both the run and the pass. As it
has many times this year for the Cowboys, this game will
likely come down to the performance of Quincy Carter. Lucky
for him and Cowboys’ backers, he’s got confidence
going into this game. Dallas beat Carolina (then 8-2) in
an important game in week 12. Carolina players feel they
aren’t getting the respect they deserve. Julius Peppers
this week complained about it to the media. Do they deserve
more respect? Well, they did win 11 games this year. But,
their offense is strictly middle-of the road while their
defense is very good but not great. While they posted a
lot of wins, the Panthers disappointed in other ways. They
had an ATS record of just 38%, horrible for a playoff team.
And, they are also just 2-9 ATS as a favorite this year.
Carolina is about as dependent on their running game as
any team in the league. In their 11 wins, Stephen Davis
rushed for 113 yards per game. In their 5 losses, he managed
just 86 yards. As they did six weeks ago, I expect Dallas
to contain the big man. The ‘Boys held him to just
75 yards that game. If they can do the same this week,
and don’t turn the ball over, they will win. I expect
a close game but one that Dallas could and should win.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Dallas +3
GREEN BAY -7 over SEATTLE (at Green Bay – Sunday
1:00PM Eastern)
One of the worst road teams in the league travels east
to face a team with one of the biggest playoff home-field
advantages known to man. Yes, the Packers lost last year
at home but that was the first time in 12 home playoff
games and there was a very good reason – a guy with
an S on his chest named Vick (and five Packer turnovers).
Green Bay were pretenders last year and are a better team
this year. That’s one reason Packer-backers are laying
a full touchdown this weekend. The other main reason is
that Green Bay, and Brett Farve in particular, is riding
some big-time momentum. Since the loss of his father, the
Packers have outscored their opponents 72-10. Over the
past four games, the Pack is averaging 36 points per game.
Green Bay won its division on a wild last-second touchdown
by Arizona which knocked the Vikings from division leader
to out of the playoffs. The Seahawks also backed into the
playoffs thanks to a Cowboys loss to the Saints. The earlier
matchup this season between these two teams in Lambeau
was a runaway victory for Green Bay 35-13. This Packer
team is not just about Brett Favre, though. In fact, for
most of the year, he has played average or worse. The fact
that he is back to his “old self” and peaking
right now is a major bonus. This team also sports an amazing
running back in Ahman Green. Green is similar to Jamal
Lewis – powerful and extremely fast. The Packers,
with Green, have the league’s third best running
game. That is huge in the playoffs. Green Bay has several
motivational factors going for them this year. Favre’s
inspiration to play well for his father will continue.
His team is also playing with extra effort for him. In
addition, the Packers will be looking to atone for last
year’s home playoff embarrassment. They want very
much to reestablish Lambeau field as the most feared place
to play in January. They are also still riding the emotional
high of getting into the playoffs with Arizona’s
last-second touchdown. Someone pointed out to me this week
that Green Bay lost three games at home this season. So
is their home-field mystique in jeopardy? Not so fast my
friend. Let’s look at those three games. First off,
in each of those games, Brett Favre as I mentioned, was
playing average. He had severe issues with his broken thumb.
His splint is now off for the first time since it was broken.
Secondly, these three losses came against very good teams
(at least at the time): Minnesota in week 1, Kansas City
and Philadelphia. The Pack are HOT and won’t cool
down this weekend. Look for the Packers to continue their
hot streak, even on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Green Bay -7
DENVER +3 vs. INDIANAPOLIS (at Indianapolis – Sunday
4:30PM Eastern)
When the Broncos visited Indianapolis last two weeks ago,
they had their way with the Colts in a 31-17 rout. Should
we expect anything different this time? I don’t expect
a rout but I expect the same outcome. Clearly lots went
Denver’s way that game. I don’t expect that
to happen again. The Colts will make adjustments. However,
Denver is about as strong and well-rounded a team as there
is in the playoffs right now – and that’s including
teams on a bye this week. They’re ranked Top 10 in
the league in rushing offense, total offense, rushing defense,
passing defense and total defense. In fact, the only area
they are not ranked highly is passing offense. This is
at least partially explained by Jake Plummer’s absence
in over a third of this season’s games. Jake and
oft-injured Clinton Portis should be close to 100% this
weekend. If they didn’t have to do it all on the
road, the Ponies might be a decent pick for the Super Bowl.
The Broncos have what I call the “Super Bowl Formula”:
a strong running game (ranked 2nd) and a tough defense
(ranked 4th). Peyton Manning is a mixed bag. He’s
coming off an MVP-caliber season (4,267 yards and 29 TDs)
but we all know his history in big games both in the pros
and college. This is one of the reasons I picked the Jets
against the Colts last year in what turned out to be one
of the biggest drubbings of all time (the Jets won 41-0).
Manning certainly wants this game as bad as any he’s
ever played. Will that help him or hurt him? Hard to tell.
He’ll certainly be motivated but the increased pressure
might be exactly the reason he’s struggled in big
games in the past. Denver’s coming in to this game
with more confidence. Minus the last game of the season
in which they sat multiple starters, they’re riding
a 4-game winning streak (and we’ve already discussed
their big win over Indy two weeks ago). Indianapolis has
show weakness in the second half of the season. In their
last five games, they went just 3-2 and nearly lost to
Houston in the final game of the season. One big difference
between this game and the last matchup between these clubs:
This week the Broncos will have one of the top weapons
they didn’t have – a healthy Clinton Portis.
Even without him, the Broncs put up 227 yards on the ground
against the Colts. My Matchup Power Ratings indicate that
this game should actually be closer to a pick ‘em
or with the Broncos favored. While I give the motivational
edge to Indianapolis, I think Denver is just a stronger
club.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Denver +3
Good luck!
The Dog
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