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Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions 2003 Weekly NFL Picks SuperBowl A Texas Tussle Who would’ve thought we’d see Carolina in the Super Bowl two years after their 1-15 2001 season? I’ll admit I didn’t call that one. I didn’t call the fact that Carolina would run the table on the road in this year’s playoffs, either. But here they are, one win away from being crowned the best NFL team in 2003. New England has been on a tear, winning 14 in a row. They enter this game with the league’s best defense. Head coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel have built a defense that held two of the league’s top offenses to just 14 points each over the past two weeks. Coming into those games, Indianapolis was averaging 39 points per playoff game (31.9 per game overall) and Tennessee was putting up 29.4. While not as good statistically as the 2001 Ravens or last year’s Tampa Bay Bucs, this defense is awesome. Since week six of the regular season, they’ve given up just 12 points per game. Carolina can play D, too. In fact, in looking strictly at games played away from their home fields, Carolina actually outshines the Pats. Carolina allowed just 17.4 points per game on the road this year versus 21 points given up by New England away from Foxboro. Jake Delhomme has been brilliant, if not flashy, in the playoffs. This team doesn’t ask a lot of him but he does what it takes to win. The Panthers resemble Super Bowl winners of recent past in several ways. In 2001, Baltimore won with a good defense and a quarterback that wasn’t asked to win games by himself. Carolina also resembles the Patriots of 2001, coming out of nowhere with an unknown but poised quarterback to win the Super Bowl as a two-touchdown favorite. While most people feel that New England should win the game, the big question is whether they’ll cover the spread. New England won just one road game this year by 7 points or more while Carolina lost just twice all season by 7+ points. But New England has some strong intangibles including a 14-game win streak, the experience of having been here before, and two weeks of preparation with mastermind Bill Belichick. As I did last year, I’ll break my analysis down into four key areas: Offense, Defense, Matchups and Intangibles. - OFFENSE - Carolina Offense (rank): These teams
have similar mediocre offenses. New England’s
strength is passing while Carolina does it on the ground.
Both of these teams play slightly better against top defenses.
New England has a slight edge due to Tom Brady. He completes
60% of passes and makes very few mistakes. He is cool under
pressure and flat out wins games. In his career, Brady
is 26-4 SU in November and December including a perfect
playoff record.
New England Defense (rank):
...When Carolina has the Ball: New England
allowed just one running back, Clinton Portis, to rush
for 100 yards. Will Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster
have a huge day? Not likely. How about the surging Jake
Delhomme? He is not a mobile quarterback which doesn’t
bode well for Carolina. The Panthers are a big play passing
offense. If Marvin Harrison and the explosive Indianapolis
passing game couldn’t handle New England’s
aggressive-play, how will Carolina? The Panthers will struggle
to move the ball all day long.
We all know
that turnovers play a huge role in the outcome of any
NFL game. The problem is that they are not predictable.
But wait. The Patriots lead the league in turnover differential
(+17) while the Panthers gave the ball away more than they
took it (-5). Jake Delhomme, despite his great recent performance,
can be accident-prone. He threw nearly an interception
a game this year (17 in 19 games). The Pats led the league
in interceptions with 29 in the regular season and 5 more
in two postseason games (against the league’s top
two QBs no less). A few Delhomme interceptions, if they
happen, will make for an easy Patriots cover.
Part of me worries about Carolina is that they have shown an ability for the upset win. They resemble in a lot of ways the Patriots of two years ago. Anybody’s power ratings indicate that this game should be won by New England by only a field goal or less. However, there is just too much pointing the way of the Patriots for me. I believe the Pats have too strong a defense, too skilled a quarterback, and too good a coach to not win this game. And, out of the 36 prior Super Bowls, only 5 teams have won without also covering the spread. I also have several Super Bowl systems that I use to analyze the big game every year. My first system, which looks at a number of variables across offense, defense, special teams and intangibles, is 27-3 ATS. My second system, which focuses on winning percentage and postseason play-to-date is 19-3 ATS. Both of these systems pick the Pats to cover the spread.
Both of these trends are based on the fact that the public tends to overreact to recent performance. Since these defenses are so strong (and the offenses so average), the game must go UNDER, right? I say the Total in this game is artificially low and you are getting a lot of value to take the OVER. In addition: ...THE DOG SAYS: Take OVER 38 points Good luck!
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