Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions

2003 Weekly NFL Picks

Conference Semi-Finals

Home Sweet Home

No three words better describe the NFL Semi-Final round of the playoffs. Since the NFL went to a 12-team playoff format in 1990, home teams in this round are 43-9 straight-up. Over the past fifteen years, home teams have covered the spread 66% of the time. Should you just go with all of the home teams this week? I don’t think so. Read on...

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- This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings -
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UNDERRATED / BY / OVERRATED
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GB 3.8 PHI
KC 3.4 IND
CAR 2.8 STL
TEN 2.3 NE

For a detailed description of how to use the Matchup Power Ratings, click here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/matchup-power-ratings.html

What is this money-line thing? What is meant by playing a team “straight-up”? Click here for an overview: http://www.freeunderdog.com/moneyline.html

On to this week's selections...

CAROLINA +7 at ST. LOUIS (Saturday 4:30PM Eastern)
The Rams are a perfect 8-0 and 6-1-1 vs. spread at home this year. They are well rested and facing a Panthers team that struggles to score points but boasts a tough run defense and excellent running game. Carolina averaged just 20 points per game during the regular season. The Panthers are the weakest of this weekend’s teams in my opinion. If they were playing any of the other three playoff home teams, I think the spread would be (or should be) over 10 points. This one will come down to the situation. The Panthers’ average margin of victory on the road this year? 1 point. The Rams at home have outscored opponents this year by an average of 17 points. How is Carolina’s defense (ranked 28th in the league against the pass) going to handle this well-rested and motivated Rams offense? As long as the Rams don’t turn the ball over more than once, I think they’ll cover this number.

Wunderdog’s systems and trends for this game:
+Semi-finals system #1 (36-9 ATS): Picks Rams
+Semi-finals system #2 (7-0 ATS): No Pick
+Matchup Power Ratings: Picks Carolina
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Rams:
---4 trends with 60%-69% ATS record
---4 trends with 70%-79% ATS record
---3 trends with 80%-89% ATS record
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Panthers: None

...THE DOG SAYS: Take St. Louis -7

TENNESSEE +6 at NEW ENGLAND (Saturday 8:15PM Eastern)
Very tough game to call. Much of my analysis favors the Titans but New England is too tough at home to go against, especially after a week of rest. Tennessee has better stats in many key areas and seems to find ways to win games they sometimes shouldn’t (I still think Baltimore should have found a way to win last week). New England has a handful of pretty strong historical playoff trends favoring them including a trend that is 18-5 ATS involving games with a low-scoring Wildcard winner.

Wunderdog’s systems and trends for this game:
+Semi-finals system #1 (36-9 ATS): Picks Titans
+Semi-finals system #2 (7-0 ATS): No Pick
+Matchup Power Ratings: Picks Titans
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Titans:
---1 trend with 70%-79% ATS record
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Patriots:
---2 trends with 60%-69% ATS record
---3 trends with 70%-79% ATS record
---1 trend with 80%-89% ATS record

...THE DOG SAYS: Pass

INDIANAPOLIS +3 at KANSAS CITY (Sunday 1:00PM Eastern)
We’re getting an undervalued Chiefs team in this one, largely due to Indianapolis’ unbelievable showing last week. Both of these teams rock on offense and struggle on defense (yes, I’m being polite). Indy has Peyton Manning who, when he is on, is the best the game has to offer. However, there are a few important things going Kansas City’s way. First off, they are at home after a week of rest and two weeks of preparation. They have one of the great coaches of all time with a lot of positive playoff experience (the Colts and Tony Dungy, in contrast, have been horrible in the playoffs prior to last week). KC’s rushing game, with Priest Holmes, is likely to have its way against the Colt’s porous run D while Indianapolis will have success versus KC’s 29th ranked defense. Too great offenses and two bad defenses. Who has the advantage? I believe the extra week of rest and preparation will be enough for Kansas City. The Chiefs score 34 points per game at home and have won 13 straight at Arrow Head. It is arguably the loudest and toughest NFL venue for visiting teams. Average margin of victory in those thirteen games? 19.2! Kansas City has too much going for them to be just a three point favorite. They have the best offensive line in football and the best offense in football. They have the intangibles (Vermeil) and great special teams (Dante Hall). And most importantly, they have the extra week of rest.

Wunderdog’s systems and trends for this game:
+Semi-finals system #1 (36-9 ATS): No Pick
+Semi-finals system #2 (7-0 ATS): Picks Chiefs
+Matchup Power Ratings: Picks Chiefs
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Colts:
---1 trend with 70%-79% ATS record
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Chiefs:
---2 trends with 60%-69% ATS record
---1 trend with 70%-79% ATS record
---1 trend with 80%-89% ATS record

...THE DOG SAYS: Take Kansas City -3

GREEN BAY +5.5 at PHILADELPHIA (Sunday 4:45PM Eastern)
Is this Packer team a team of destiny? I do think they’ve got something special going on right now and I wouldn’t want to face them. They didn’t cover last week but they won their sixth straight. This week they have a legitimate shot at winning a tough road playoff game. Yes, I know how tough it is to win on the road in this round of the playoffs. It takes a lot for me to recommend a road team. The Eagles, however, are just 5-3 at home this year. The only team they beat at Lincoln Field with a winning record was the Cowboys. I’m just not sold on this Philadelphia team like a lot of other people. Philadelphia is the proud owner of two interesting stats that none of the other seven teams playing this week can claim (or would want to). Did you know that Philadelphia actually gave up more yards than they gained this year? Did you know that Philly’s defense allows a higher pass completion percentage than their offense achieves? Their defense is ranked 20th in the league and that smells like success for the Packers who have one of the best QBs of all time and one of the best running backs in the game. On top of that, this team is HOT-HOT-HOT. The last time these two teams met in week 10, Green Bay’s Ahman Green racked up 192 yards on the ground. It takes a lot for me to go against a home team in this round of the playoffs but getting 5.5 with the #3 rushing offense against the 22nd ranked rushing defense goes a long way toward changing my mind. Green Bay qualifies for a trend involving teams who had a lot of blow-out wins in the regular season vs. teams that did not. This trend is 30-13 (70%) over the past decade and went 4-0 last year.

Wunderdog’s systems and trends for this game:
+Semi-finals system #1 (36-9 ATS): Picks Packers
+Semi-finals system #2 (7-0 ATS): No Pick
+ Matchup Power Ratings: Picks Packers
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Packers:
---2 trends with 70%-79% ATS record
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Eagles:
---2 trends with 60%-69% ATS record

...THE DOG SAYS: Take Green Bay +5.5

Good luck!
The Dog

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