Wunderdog
NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions
2003
Weekly NFL Picks
Conference
Finals
And then there were four
Last week’s games were amazingly close with all
four decided by a touchdown or less. In fact, 19 total
points separated the winners from the losers. That’s
the lowest total difference in modern history. On a weekend
where home teams (well rested, top performers in the league)
are supposed to win, two home teams are now at literally
at home – on the couch. Both road winners were impressive
in different ways. Carolina continued to shock everyone
by going into St. Louis and upsetting the touchdown-favorite
Rams who were undefeated at home. And Peyton Manning put
together a near flawless performance, again, to beat KC.
I was 1-2 on my picks, winning with Green Bay but losing
with KC and St. Louis. My statistical look at the games
were 3-1 with my Matchup Power Ratings correctly calling
Green Bay, Carolina and Tennessee.
Who will advance to Super Bowl XXXVIII? My thoughts are
below...
-------------------------------------
- This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings -
-------------------------------------
UNDERRATED / BY / OVERRATED
----------------------------
PHI 4.6 CAR
NE 4.5 IND
For a detailed description of how to use the Matchup Power
Ratings, click here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/matchup-power-ratings.html
On to this week's selections...
INDIANAPOLIS +3 at NEW ENGLAND (3:05PM Eastern)
Peyton’s been 99% perfect two games in a row now.
Against two teams that were good enough to make the playoffs,
no less. Last game was even on the road. This guy’s
on a mission and its tough to tell if anyone can slow him
down. The Broncos and the Chiefs didn’t even come
close. Due largely to Manning’s performances, the
Colts haven’t punted during the postseason! We all
know about the Chief’s defense which explains last
week. The Broncos had a pretty good defense during the
regular season but played absolutely horribly in the Wildcard
game. They put no pressure on whatsoever on Manning, who
has shown that if he isn’t pressured, he will beat
any team in the league. The million dollar question this
weekend for me is: Can the Patriots slow down Peyton Manning?
I think they have an excellent shot. The Patriots defense
is a unique one. Belichick is a defensive mastermind. He
throws so many different looks at opposing offenses and
quarterbacks that they have a tough time telling what’s
coming. This is super-important this weekend against Manning,
who likes to change plays at the line of scrimmage based
on what he sees. He will have a much tougher time calling
audibles this weekend than the past two weeks (the Pats
successfully confused him in their win earlier this year).
The Patriots defense allowed the fewest passing touchdowns
this year (just 11) in the league. They also had the most
interceptions. They racked up five more sacks than the
Chiefs and Broncos. The Patriots were tops in the league
this year in opponent’s passer rating – by
a long shot. And, the Pats have allowed just 36 points
in their last seven home games. That’s 5 points a
game, sports-fans!! I think Bill Belichick will, with this
great defense, throw a wrench in Manning’s perfect
postseason. I think there is a good chance they will cause
a turnover or two (they were +17 in turnover ratio this
year) and do enough to allow Tom Brady to win this game
and cover the spread. If they do win the turnover battle,
the Patriots should win the game. They are 11-0 when they
had the turnover advantage this year. My Systems and Power
Ratings back up my thoughts on this one (see below). Freezing
temperatures and snow are expected on Sunday, making it
difficult on a dome team like Indy. Yes, last week was
on the road but it was mild sunny weather in KC. New England
just finds ways to win against very good teams. In a game
that could go either way, I give New England this final
advantage: they are not overly reliant on any given player.
The Pats have started 42 different players. Last week Tom
Brady threw to 10 different receivers. Who’s the
star on this team? They all are. The Colts, on the other
hand, are completely reliant on the arm of Peyton Manning.
Will he be able to turn in another perfect game? I don’t
know. But, chances are he will have some slip-ups and if
he does, New England wins.
Wunderdog’s
systems and trends for this game:
+Conference Finals system #1 (23-6 ATS): Picks the Patriots
+Conference Finals system #2 (3-2 ATS): Picks the Patriots
+Matchup Power Ratings: Picks the Patriots
+Conference Finals historical trends favoring the Colts:
---4 trends with 70%-79% ATS record
+Conference Finals historical trends favoring the Patriots:
---2 trends with 60%-69% ATS record
---4 trends with 70%-79% ATS record
---2 trends with 80%-89% ATS record
...THE DOG SAYS: Take New England -3
CAROLINA +4 at PHILADELPHIA (6:45PM Eastern)
Can I pick them both to lose? I am not hot on either of
these teams. Carolina, behind the arm of Jake Delhomme,
is peaking and playing very well. They deserve a lot of
credit for getting this far. But, they just don’t
seem like one of the four best teams in the league to me.
I think they’ll be a great team for years to come
but they just don’t seem like Super Bowl material
to yet. On the other side of the ball, I’m also surprised
Philadelphia is here. They have a terrible run defense
and pretty average stats. Yet the Eagles find ways to win.
They also have a very strong motivation to win this week,
having lost in the conference finals two years in a row.
Last year was a particularly humiliating loss at home.
Both of these teams have found ways to win close games
and games they maybe should not have won. Last week the
Eagles survived 156 yards by Ahman Green, eight McNabb
sacks, and a must-have 4th and 26 to pull out a victory.
Seven of Carolina’s eleven regular season wins this
year were by a touchdown or less. The Eagles’ rushing
defense is in the bottom third of the league. Should we
care? Normally I do care but it hasn’t seemed to
hinder the Eagles this year. And, the Panthers’ top
running threat, Stephen Davis (questionable) will not be
able to play at full-speed and may not play at all. The
Eagles are without their leading rushing Brian Westbrook
but I don’t think this is a big deal. They have two
other very productive backs in Correll Buckhalter and Duce
Staley. It seems most analysts are worried about Philly’s
ability to run the ball. Has everyone forgotten what Duce
Staley did last year? If not for his holdout and the great
play of Buckhalter and Westbrook, Staley (averaging 5.0
ypc) could have had a Pro Bowl year this year. The question
is whether Andy Reid will keep balance and give Correll
and Duce the ball or abandon the run as he did last week.
I think Carolina’s luck runs out this weekend against
a highly-motivated home team who believes the NFC Championship
is their right.
Wunderdog’s
systems and trends for this game:
+Conference Finals system #1 (23-6 ATS): Picks Eagles
+Conference Finals system #2 (3-2 ATS): Picks Eagles
+Matchup Power Ratings: Picks Eagles
+Conference Finals historical trends favoring the Panthers:
---3 trends with 70%-79% ATS record
+Conference Finals historical trends favoring the Eagles:
---2 trends with 60%-69% ATS record
---4 trends with 70%-79% ATS record
---3 trends with 80%-89% ATS record
---1 trend with 90%-99% ATS record
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Philadelphia -4
Good luck!
The Dog
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