Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions

2003 Weekly NFL Picks

Regular Season Week 9

Last week both Cincinnati and Arizona were outright winners as dogs (‘Zona paid 2.2 to 1 for its straight-up win as a 6.5pt dog) and losers included Dallas, Minnesota, Cleveland and the Jets. Minnesota and Dallas weren’t close but I was real frustrated with Cleveland and NY’s near-misses. Both of these teams were close tp winning outright and covering as dogs (missed the cover in both by combined 4.5 points). Just one of those weeks... and one of those seasons so far. As I have stated, I am not happy with my performance this season. It’s been frustrating and a bit wacky (it’s crazy that home dogs are still just 10-24 ATS on the year).

So this week I really started wondering if other NFL handicappers were also struggling this season. Normally I don’t pay much attention to others and just focus on my performance but now that I am under .500 on the year, I became really curious. So, I surfed the web and came across a page on Vegasinsder.com that tracks records of 34 NFL handicappers game-by-game. Here’s what I found:

- Out of the 34, over half (19) were negative in units on the season
- The average handicapper is -47 units on the season
- Half (17) have picked more losers than winners so far this season

It does seem that it is a strange year for picking NFL games and that based on this sample at least, most handicappers are struggling. There is no excuse for sub-.500 performance and my goal is to break out of the pack ASAP and return to the winners circle, even if the season continues its wacky ways.

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- This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings -
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UNDERRATED / BY / OVERRATED
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DAL 8.2 WAS
PHI 7.8 ATL
GB 5.9 MIN
DEN 4.8 NE
STL 4.8 SF
IND 3.4 MIA
SEA 3.3 PIT
NO 3.1 TB
BAL 3.0 JAC
SD 1.5 CHI
NYG 0.7 NYJ
DET 0.6 OAK
CAR 0.3 HOU
ARI 0.1 CIN

As a reminder, the Matchup Power Ratings highlight for you the games in which the lines-makers have set the line incorrectly, BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TEAMS. To estimate the correct STATISTICAL line for the game, simply subtract the number above from the underrated team’s line. REMEMBER: These ratings DO NOT account for injuries, motivation, or historical trends. Rather, they are 100% driven by the statistical performances of the two teams season-to-date. As a result, I often play against the ratings due to these other very important factors.

On to this week's selections...

DETROIT +3 over Oakland (1:00PM Eastern)
Things are downright ugly in Oakland. The Raiders are off to their worst start since 1964. Head coach Bill Callahan seems to have lost faith in his team and the faith of his team (i.e. Charles Woodson publicly denounced his head coach this week). Think his players will be leaving it all on the field this week? Think again. Oakland starting QB and reigning MVP Rich Gannon is out with a shoulder injury giving second-year QB Marques Tuiasosopo gets his first start. The Raiders haven’t covered the number is 12 straight games (includes ’03 preseason). Nothing good can come from all this. Two bad teams meet but I like the home team getting points against a a Raiders squard with too much internal turmoil.

PLAYS: Take Detroit +3

NY JETS +2.5 over NY Giants (1:00PM Eastern)
The Jets lost a game they should have arguably won last week while the G-Men pulled of a big shocker in Minnesota. Kerry Collins finally had a great game but for most of the year, he’s looked horrible. And he’s facing a pressure pass rush (Jets are #1 in the league in sacks). These teams are pretty even but I like getting points with the Jets now that Pennington has his first game under his belt and a full week to prepare as the starter. Sure, he was rusty last week but he won’t be this week. Both teams are in need of a win but the Jets are a bit more desperate coming off a loss and sitting at 2-5. The Giants are 5-10 as favorites in the Meadowlands including 0 for their last 3. Home dogs do very well ATS versus teams off a win as a big dog.

PLAYS: Take the Jets +2.5 and straight-up to win

TAMPA BAY -8 over New Orleans (1:00PM Eastern)
Which defense will show up for Tampa Bay? The one that was torched by Indianapolis and San Francisco or the one that shut out Philadelphia and Dallas? I’m thinking the latter. Here’s why: It’s Revenge Time for Tampa Bay. They took out their frustrations on Dallas last week but they’re still pissed. Of TB’s four losses last season, two came from New Orleans. That’s enough motivation to keep Tampa fired up this week. On top of that, Tampa’s best chance to catch division-leading Carolina will be this current stretch in which they play 3 out of 4 games at home. Tampa also qualifies for a trend in which home teams off a shut-out cover most of the time in the following game.

PLAYS: Take Tampa Bay -8

SEATTLE -4.5 over Pittsburgh (4:05PM Eastern)
Seattle was surprised last week in a loss to Cincinnati but that doesn’t take away from the strength of this team. Pittsburgh on the other hand is really struggling on offense. Tommy Maddox is having an off year and the Steelers are uncharacteristically ranked 30th in rushing. Seattle’s off to their best start since 1999 and has won four straight at home this year. They haven’t covered the spread in the last five, however, which along with last week’s loss is what is keeping this spread below a touchdown (where it should be).

PLAYS: Take Seattle -4.5

ARIZONA +3 over Cincinnati (4:15PM Eastern)
Can the Bengals come into Arizona and win their third straight game for the first time in four years? Don’t jump on that bandwagon just yet. The glass slipper isn’t a perfect fit this weekend. Cincinnati played its best game of the season last week – a feat I think they’ll have a hard time repeating on the road this week. Arizona has more going for it than they get credit for. QB Jeff Blake will be motivated to play well against his former team. Running back Marcel Shipp is showing that Emmitt Smith isn’t needed after all. He ran for 165 yards last week in a big upset of the 49ers. Arizona also comes into this game with some confidence and hope but should have a larger chip on their shoulder as a home dog. All the attention is on the Bengals but Arizona has the tougher defense and played the better game last week. It’s time for this fairytale to end (or at least take a little break).

PLAYS: Take Arizona +3

Green Bay +4.5 over MINNESOTA (Sunday Night Game)
This is a must-win game for a hungry Green Bay team that can’t afford to lose its third straight. Even though Favre has had a rough go in domes, I think he’ll shine tonight under the national spotlight. It’s also a revenge game for Green Bay (Minnesota beat the Pack in week 1 this year). Also, the Packers are well rested and focused off a bye. Green Bay qualifies for a 14-0 trend involving road teams against teams off a loss as a favorite. Minnesota finally showed some weakness last week and I think that combined with an all out effort from Green Bay on Sunday night spells upset.

PLAYS: Take Green Bay +4.5 and straight-up to win

Good luck!

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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no guarantees and cannot be held responsible for any actions taken by newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you wager, do so only through legal channels. Good luck!

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