Wunderdog
NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions
2003
Weekly NFL Picks
Regular
Season Week 7
Last week I was on the wrong side
of a 3-4 record. The Jets won easily SU and ATS, and Dallas
and San Francisco covered. Washington, Arizona, Denver
and the Giants did not cover. My overall 2003 record now
stands at 22-22 ATS and 9-14 Money Line for +438 units
net.
This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings
---------------------------------
UNDERRATED / BY / OVERRATED
----------------------------
KC 8.1 OAK
CLE 6.1 SD
TB 3.5 SF
NYJ 3.2 HOU
SEA 3.1 CHI
MIA 2.9 NE
NYG 2.2 PHI
DAL 2.1 DET
CAR 1.3 TEN
DEN 1.2 MIN
STL 1.0 GB
WAS 0.6 BUF
NO 0.3 ATL
CIN 0.3 BAL
As a reminder,
the Matchup Power Ratings highlight for you the games
in which the lines-makers have set the line
incorrectly, BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE
TEAMS. This can be for good reasons (i.e. injuries) or
bad reasons (the public’s perception is way off).
These ratings are 100% statistically driven and do not
account for other important handicapping elements such
as motivation, injuries, and situational trends. There
are times I actually play against the ratings due to the
other factors.
On to this week's selections...
Denver +3.5 over MINNESOTA (1:00PM Eastern)
Minnesota is good but not as good as their 5-0 record and
30-17 average score indicates. Four of their wins have
come against teams with losing records (Detroit, Chicago
Atlanta and SF) and they’ve gotten a lot of lucky
bounces (league-high +10 turnover differential). Denver
is without starter Jake Plummer again this week but Steve
Beuerlein is an able-bodied backup. Even with Plummer
in there, Denver’s pass offense was mediocre at
best. With Clinton Portis in the backfield, the Ponies
will run the ball enough to take the pressure off Beuerlein.
Denver’s defense, #2 in the league, should be able
to contain Randy Moss and the rest of the Vikings offense.
Minny has covered every game this year and are due for
a fall. In fact, teams that are perfect ATS after week
5 typically lose a game ATS very soon thereafter. Also,
visiting dogs fare well against teams off a bye.
PLAYS: Take Denver +3.5 and straight-up to win
ATLANTA +1.5 over New Orleans (1:00PM Eastern)
The Falcons will have a new quarterback this Sunday. No,
not Michael Vick (darn!). Kurt Kittner gets his first start
in an effort to snap Hotlanta’s five game losing
streak. Not sure he’ll be the answer but there’s
a good chance he’ll provided a needed spark. The
reason I like the birds in this game is this: These are
professionals. The Falcons were thoroughly embarrassed
on the national stage Monday night. Pro football players
have pride. Atlanta will come out fired up this week on
both offense and defense. New Orleans on the other hand,
may have some mis-placed confidence. They won last week
but against who? The Bears? Give me a break.
PLAYS: Take Atlanta +1.5 and straight-up to win
Baltimore -1.5 over CINCINNATI (1:00PM Eastern)
Jamal Lewis. Jamal Lewis. Did I mention Jamal Lewis? Look
out Eric Dickerson – Jamal is on pace to shatter
the all-time single-season rushing record. Cincinnati’s
rushing defense is 22nd in the league. Baltimore is 9-1
in its last 10 games against Cincinnati. ‘Nuff said.
PLAYS: Take Baltimore -1.5
ST. LOUIS -3.5 over Green Bay (1:00PM Eastern)
St. Louis may just be back. In their last two games, the
Rams have outscored their opponents 73-13. This weekend’s
game will go a long way towards confirming that they are
really back. In those two games, WR Tory Holt has caught
23 balls for 294 yards, catapulting St. Louis to the top
spot in passing offense in the league. Oh yeah, and did
I mention that Green Bay is close to last in the league
(30th) in passing defense? Expect another big day for the
St. Louis offense. Brett Favre continues to throw ill-advised
passes and has historically struggled in Domes where he
has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and has a
record of just 11-19. I expect a road letdown by Green
Bay after two strong yet draining performances. Home teams
off shut-outs perform very well against the spread in their
next game.
PLAYS: Take St. Louis -3.5
SAN FRANCISCO +3.5 over Tampa Bay (4:15PM Eastern)
Five points. That’s the difference between a 5-1
record and the record San Francisco actually owns: 2-4.
San Francisco has lost two games by one point and another
by three. Obviously they are better than a .333 team. They
know this, too. And they know they can’t afford to
keep losing games if they want to make the playoffs. They
have stayed in games by playing great defense. San Francisco’s
D (5th in the league) is playing nearly as well as Tampa
Bay’s (4th in the league) but doesn’t get as
much press. I think Tampa Bay will struggle to get much
of a running game going in this contest. I also expect
Terrell Owens to snap out of his funk and step up to the
challenge of playing the world champs. Home dogs are a
dismal 6-18 so far this year but that can’t continue.
I like San Francisco at home.
PLAYS: Take San Francisco +3.5 and straight-up to win
Washington +3 over BUFFALO (4:15PM Eastern)
Washington is having their problems but it it’s worse
in Buffalo. The Bills can’t do much right at all
(except squeak by Cincinnati two weeks ago) after starting
the year 2-0. They are dead last in the league in one of
the most important stats: rushing. The Bills are averaging
just 57.5 yards per game and 2.5 per rush. That ain’t
gonna win games. Road dogs who out-rush their opponents
by a significant margin cover the spread about 7 out of
10 times. The Bills also qualify for a negative historical
angle that involves home teams that scored less than five
points in their last game that is 20-4 ATS including 2-0
this year.
PLAYS: Take Washington +3
OAKLAND +3.5 over Kansas City (Monday Night)
ABC is dreading another potential blowout on Monday night
following last week’s joke and I can’t say
I blame them. My first reaction to this game was that the
spread was way off. Kansas City at 6-0 should kill the
2-4 Oakland Raiders. The Raiders committed 19 penalties
last week and couldn’t look worst. The spread for
this game just looked too good to be true. And maybe it
is. The Raiders know their season is shot. All they have
to play for now is pride. Just imagine an upset win over
division rival Kansas City on Monday night. Imagine spoiling
your rival’s perfect record. You can bet the Oakland
players are imagining just that this week. After staring
the year well, Kansas City’s defense has reverted
to it’s poor play from 2002. KC is 26th in the league
in total defense. Oakland gets Jerry Porter back which
is the single biggest positive thing that could happen
to this offense right now. With his ability to open the
field up, Rice and Brown should have better games this
week. Teams that are winless ATS at this point in the season
do very well. In week 5, Chicago beat this Oakland team
to get their first ATS win. Last week, it was the Jets’ turn
to get their first ATS win. I look for Oakland to pull
of the shocker this week.
PLAYS: Take Oakland +3.5 and straight-up to win
Good luck!
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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible
for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no guarantees
and cannot be held responsible for any actions taken by
newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you wager, do so
only through legal channels. Good luck!
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