Wunderdog
NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions
2003
Weekly NFL Picks
Regular
Season Week 4
Welcome to the 2003 Week 4 Wunderdog
Full Subscriber NFL Newsletter
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Last week I won with Minnesota and lost with Seattle,
Oakland and Buffalo. Luckily a good start to the year still
has us well in the money. My record for the year is now
14-13 ATS and 7-9 on the money line for a net total of
+823 units.
This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings
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As a reminder, these ratings highlight for you the games
in which the lines-makers have set the line incorrectly,
BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TEAMS. This
can be for good reasons (i.e. injuries) or bad reasons
(the public’s perception is way off). Be aware that
these ratings are 100% statistically driven and do not
account for other important handicapping elements such
as motivation, injuries, and situational trends. There
are times I actually play against the ratings due to the
other factors.
These numbers represent how far off I believe the line
to be strictly based on statistics. The first team is the
team I think is underrated and would be considered the
play, statistically speaking. The higher the number, the
more I believe the spread, as of Thursday night, to be
wrong. For example:
ARI 5.5 ATL
This indicates that I believe Arizona should be giving
5.5 points more than they actually are. If they are already
a favorite, they should be a bigger favorite. If they are
an underdog, they should be a smaller underdog (or a favorite).
2003 Week 4 Wunderdog Matchup Power Ratings
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DEN 14.4 DET
BUF 14.2 PHI
STL 9.1 ARI
KC 7.0 BAL
GB 6.0 CHI
IND 5.0 NO
WAS 3.5 NE
CLE 2.1 CIN
SF 1.6 MIN
ATL 1.5 CAR
HOU 1.4 JAC
OAK 1.1 SD
PIT 1.1 TEN
NYJ 0.9 DAL
On to this week's selections...
Atlanta +6 OVER CAROLINA
We’re getting value with this line. Carolina certainly
had a big win against Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago.
But, their offense has been mediocre and this Falcons team
scorched them 71-0 in two meetings last year. Granted,
that was with Vick, but obviously the rest of the players
and coaches know how to play Carolina well. And against
an average Jacksonville squad, the Panthers allowed 24
points. Last game Atlanta had to face a very pissed-off
Tampa Bay team. That game aside, they have scored 29 ppg
against good defenses in Dallas and Washington. Early in
the season, teams that were winless in the preseason are
good bets (2-1 so far this season). Go with the Falcons.
**Money-Line Play? YES! Play all dogs money line except
those at exactly +3
CLEVELAND -4.5 OVER Cincinnati
Think Tim Couch is ready to play? Think he’ll do
everything in his power to play the best game of his life?
You bet. After an 0-2 start, Cleveland has confidence again
after surprising the 49ers as 7 point underdogs. Couch’s
teammates are going to be ready to play as well. In a very
winnable game, they have the chance to get to .500 and
get back in the hunt. Cincinnati on the other hand has
no confidence. After a hopeful preseason with a new coach,
they now realize that nothing has really changed. They’ve
been outscored by an average of 10 points per game. Small
home favorites with a win under their belt facing 0-3 teams
in week 4 cover the spread almost every time. Take Cleveland
to take advantage of a good situation and beat Cincinnati
by a touchdown plus.
Kansas City -3 over BALTIMORE
The Chiefs are my pick at this point in the season to win
the Super Bowl. They have it all – the best running
back, a good passing game, awesome special teams, one of
the best coaches in the history of the game and... a defense!
Yes, they added that last one this year. They’re
aren’t just winning – they are crushing all
comers. They have outscored opponents 110-48. In order
to win this one, Baltimore is going to need to put up 35+
points. I don’t see that happening. Road teams that
shoot the lights out in a big win the previous game are
45-18 ATS (6-2 the last four years and 1-0 so far this
year).
HOUSTON +3 over Jacksonville
Jacksonville starting QB Mark Brunell is hurting. If he
can’t go, it will be the rookie Byron Leftwich.
It’ hard enough for a rookie, but Leftwich started
camp late. If he has to play, it could be a long day
for the Jag offense. WR Jimmy Smith is still out (will
be back next week). Without him, Jacksonville’s
starting receivers have combined for just 10 catches
in three games. This Houston team is not bad. Don’t
forget they beat Miami in week one. They went on to lose
their next two but one was against the best team in the
league (KC). Now they’re getting points at home
against a team that seems to find ways to lose games.
Houston’s defense has been working overtime in
practice this week after giving up 42 points last week.
Teams that give up 40+ points do well against the spread
the following game.
**Money-Line Play? No. Play all dogs money line except
those at exactly +3
BUFFALO -3 over Philadelphia
Drew Bledsoe had a bad game last week. I don’t expect
that to happen again. Buffalo has a lot to play for in
an effort to keep up with the Joneses (Miami and New England)
in the tough AFC East. Philadelphia reminds me of the 2002
St. Louis Rams – a Super Bowl contender that has
gone down hill – Fast. The Eagles have scored just
10 points in two games. They are out of synch (is Duce’s
holdout holding them back?!?). Their once great defense
is giving up 24 per and is 27th in the league in pass D.
Not a good recipe against a motivated Drew Bledsoe. Meanwhile,
Buffalo’s defense is 8th in the league and looks
to be for real with the addition of Takeo Spikes and Lawyer
Milloy. My Matchup Power Ratings indicate that Buffalo
should be a much bigger favorite. Despite the fact that
Philly wants this one bad, I don’t think they have
what it takes to get it done against a Buffalo team that
wants it just as much.
**Money-Line Play? No. Play all dogs money line except
those at exactly +3
Indianapolis -1.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS (Sunday night)
Apparently last year’s playoff trouncing hasn’t
stuck in the heads of the Colts. They are off to their
best start in years. Edgerrin James may not play Sunday
due to a bad back but 2000 first-round pick Reggie Wayne
may be there to pick up the slack after a 141 yard 2TD
performance last week. On the defensive side the story
is even better. The Colts have allowed just two TDs all
season and are holding opposing offenses to less than 9
points per game. New Orleans, on the other hand, has shown
it can’t beat good teams. Outside of a win against
Houston, the Saints are scoring 10 points and giving up
27 per game. Indianapolis has an easy time in the Big Easy
this week.
Good luck!
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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible
for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no guarantees
and cannot be held responsible for any actions taken by
newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you wager, do so
only through legal channels. Good luck!
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