Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions

2003 Weekly NFL Picks

Regular Season Week 3

Welcome to the 2003 Week 3 Wunderdog Full Subscriber NFL Newsletter
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My record for the year now stands at 13-10 against-the-spread and 7-8 money line (straight-up underdogs) for +853 units. So, at $100 per pay, we are up $853 on the season. After nary a losing week for the first five weeks of the season, last week was 1-3-1 with a win on Cincinnati, a push on St. Louis and losses with Cleveland, Chicago and Detroit. Uggh. This week I of course expect a big bounce-back.

This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings
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As a reminder, these ratings highlight for you the games in which the lines-makers have set the line incorrectly, BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TEAMS. This can be for good reasons (i.e. injuries) or bad reasons (the public’s perception is way off). Be aware that these ratings are 100% statistically driven and do not account for other important handicapping elements such as motivation, injuries, and situational trends. There are times I actually play against the ratings due to the other factors.

These numbers represent how far off I believe the line to be strictly based on statistics. The first team is the team I think is underrated and would be considered the play, statistically speaking. The higher the number, the more I believe the spread, as of Thursday night, to be wrong. For example:

ARI 5.5 ATL would indicate that I believe Arizona should be giving 5.5 points more than they actually are. If they are already a favorite, they should be a bigger favorite. If they are an underdog, they should be a smaller underdog (or a favorite). Early on in the season use these with extreme caution as they are based on very few games.

2003 Week 3 Wunderdog Matchup Power Ratings
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SEA 9.6 STL
NYJ 9.5 NE
BAL 7.5 SD
GB 7.4 ARI
KC 7.3 HOU
BUF 6.9 MIA
DEN 6.0 OAK
IND 5.0 JAC
NYG 4.1 WAS
ATL 2.4 TB
SF 1.8 CLE
PIT 1.3 CIN
MIN 1.1 DET
TEN 0.2 NO

On to this week's selections...

Buffalo +3 OVER MIAMI
This Bills squad is excellent. Drew Bledsoe is one of the best QBs in the league and because of him, the Bills are averaging 34.5 ppg. He not only puts up the numbers, but he finds a way to win the big games. The defense is much improved this year and is giving up just 8.5 ppg including one shut-out. Miami certainly looked good against the Jets last week but the Jets aren’t the same team with Vinny and the Fins showed weakness against Houston in week 1. It has only been two games, but my Matchup Power Ratings have Buffalo pegged as a “should-be” favorite in this game. High-scoring road teams off a road game have won about 2/3 of their games ATS in recent years. This will be a close one and Buffalo will cover the number.
Money-Line Play? No. Play all dogs money line except those at exactly +3

Minnesota -3.5 OVER DETROIT
Over the past dozen years in week 3, visiting teams off a win have covered the spread 75% of the time when playing home teams off a loss. Minnesota is dominating opponents so far in ’03. Both of these teams have already played a common opponent on the road – Green Bay. Minnesota won by 5 while Detroit lost by 25. Detroit has managed just 4.4 yards per play so far this year (missing RB James Stewart badly) while allowing 5.9 per play. Minnesota is clearly the superior team, yet they are only giving 3.5 points. Take Minny to walk away with this one.

SEATTLE -3 OVER St. Louis
The Hawks are hot. Mike Holmgren knows that it’s win-or-lose-his-job-time and he’s got his team playing accordingly. Defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes has done a tremendous job in the first two games which has contributed to Seattle winning by an average score of 33 to 5! St. Louis continues to struggle and would be 0-2 if not for one of the dumbest plays and colossal mental farts of all time last week (a San Francisco receiver running the final 7 seconds off the clock instead of sitting down for the game-winning field goal). The odds-makers have made this a pick ‘em and thrown Seattle three points for home field advantage. What a joke! My Matchup Power Ratings indicate that the Seahawks should be a much, much bigger favorite in this one. On top of it all, Seattle qualifies for a handful of excellent trends. For example, small favorite home teams off shut-out wins are 15-2 ATS over recent years. Until Mike Martz figures out that to win, he needs to get the ball in Marshall Faulk’s hands more than a few times a game, I don’t expect the Rams to win much. Take Seattle to easily cover in this game.

Oakland +5.5 OVER DENVER
Are you ready for some Monday Night Football??
Everything seems to be going Denver’s way and not much is going Oakland’s way. Denver fans and media are watering at the mouth to atone for last year’s dominating sweep by Oakland. Denver, having cruised to easy victories in its first two games, should take advantage of the Monday Night lights and deliver some payback for last year to a struggling Raiders team, right? Not so fast. It was on this field on a Monday night last year when Oakland, off four straight losses handed Denver a 34-10 shellacking as a 5 point underdog. Games between these two clubs are played on a different level. You can throw records away. Denver is winning convincingly which has masked the fact that Jake Plummer looks like his old terrible self. This guy is as mistake-prone as they come. He has thrown more INTs than TDs in his career and has lost more games than he has won. He hasn’t looked good in the preseason or the regular season. Mark my words - He’s going to lose an important game for the Broncos before long and it just might be tonight. Oakland has had the advantage of two close games in which they have had to fight. Denver has cruised to early leads and easy wins against two teams with a combined record of 0-4. I don’t think Denver has really been tested yet. Will Oakland test them? It depends which team shows up. If Oakland is going to show up for any game, it’s this one. On paper it looks like Denver will rout. But as they say, the NFL isn’t played on paper, baby. It’s played in front of a national audience. That’s when big time stars like Jerry Rice and Rich Gannon shine. That’s also where pretenders like Jake Plummer stumble and fall. Take Oakland in the big upset.
**Money-Line Play? YES! Play all dogs money line except those at exactly +3

Good luck!

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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no guarantees and cannot be held responsible for any actions taken by newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you wager, do so only through legal channels. Good luck!

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