Wunderdog
NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions
2003
Weekly NFL Picks
Regular
Season Week 2
Welcome to the 2003 Week 2 Wunderdog
Full Subscriber NFL Newsletter
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Week one was
a thing of beauty. The theme was public overreaction
and it played out near perfectly. I figured that the
public
was overreacting to preseason results (Houston winless,
reports of Mark Brunell’s demise in Jacksonville,
and Mike Vick being out in Atlanta). The spreads in these
games were all wrong. As a result, I went 3-1, correctly
predicting winners with Houston +14 (Whoa Nelly! Even I
didn’t think they’d win it outright!), Jacksonville
+3.5 and Atlanta +2. I was wrong with Arizona +4 (Detroit
played really well!). Will the public overreact this week
to week 1 games? Read on...
My ATS record for the year now stands at 12-7 (64%) for
+430 units. So, at $100 per pay, we are up $430 on the
season.
FOLLOW THE MONEY LINE ALL THE WAY TO THE BANK
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12-7 is all well and good, but let’s talk about the
gold mine – THE MONEY LINE.
The Money Line is a SU bet. If we take underdogs SU to
win, instead of betting $110 to win $100, we bet $100 to
win something higher than $100. These bets pay more than
we put up because we are taking an underdog to win outright.
The ML payoff varies by sports book. My book pays anywhere
from 1:1 for a +1 dog to 7:1 for a +14 dog (yes, a $100
bet on Houston to win SU last week was worth $700).
As I stated
in my first preseason newsletter of this year, my underdog
selections did super well SU (Money Line) last
year. In off-season analysis of last year’s data,
I calculated that if we played every single dog selection
straight up, we would have been up 1890 Units in ML play.
Not bad at all. However, I dug a bit deeper (never know
when you’re going to find a bone!).
I uncovered an interesting and very profitable fact: There
was one specific spread in which the money line actually
lost money. That spread was exactly +3. Out of my 70 or
so dog selections last year, the two dozen that were +3
only won straight-up about 20% of the time. At a payoff
of about 1.3 to 1, this is not enough to make a play worthwhile.
Naturally, I
asked myself the question “What if
we played all dogs straight up except for those at exactly
+3?” The answer is that instead of +1890 units, last
year we would have made +2486 units!
So, that’s the secret formula for this year. Let’s
play all dogs SU (except those at exactly +3). How has
this strategy fared so far this year? Well, I have made
14 underdog selections. Three were at exactly +3 which
leaves us with 11 ML plays. In those 11, we have gone 7-4
(64%) SU for +1353 units! So for eleven $100 bets, we are
up $1353 net. No guarantee this will continue, but so far
so good.
This week I like five underdogs. But first...
This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings
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As a reminder, these ratings highlight for you the games
in which the lines-makers have set the line incorrectly,
BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TEAMS. This
can be for good reasons (i.e. injuries) or bad reasons
(the public’s perception is way off). The underrated
team is the one the statistics point to as the play. Be
aware that these ratings are 100% statistically driven
and do not account for other important handicapping elements
such as motivation, injuries, and situational trends. There
are times I actually play against the ratings due to the
other factors.
These numbers represent how far off I believe the line
to be strictly based on statistics.
SF 7.8 over STL (SF is a 3pt dog but should be a 4.8pt
favorite)
DEN 5.5 over SD (is -3 but should be -8.5)
BUF 4.9 over JAC (is -3 but should be -7.9)
NYG 4.7 over DAL (is -7 but should be -11.7)
TEN 4.6 over IND (is +2 but should be -2.6)
TB 4.1 over CAR (is -9.5 but should be -13.6)
CIN 3.5 over OAK (is +12.5 but should be +9.0)
DET 3.3 over GB (is +6.5 but should be +3.2)
ATL 3.3 over WAS (is -3 but should be -6.3)
CLE 2.1 over BAL (is +2.5 but should be +0.4)
CHI 2.0 over MIN (is +8 but should be +6)
PHI 2.0 over NE (is -4.5 but should be -6.5)
SEA 1.3 over ARI (is -4.5 but should be -5.8)
HOU 1.2 over NO (is +8 but should be +6.8)
MIA 0.3 over NYJ (is -3 but should be -3.3)
KC 0.2 over PIT (is -3.5 but should be -3.7)
Being game 2, these are based on limited data, so beware.
On to this week's selections...
CHICAGO +8 OVER MINNESOTA
Contrarian play. Chicago gets hammered 49-7 last week while
Minnesota pulls of the big upset in Lambeau. It seems
like Minnesota will walk in this one. However, Minnesota
played a Green Bay team that I believe will not meet
expectations this year (they aren’t that good).
Chicago played a much better San Francisco team. I believe
Minnesota will be a bit flat while Chicago will find
a way to play better than last week. Take the Bears.
CINCINATTI +12.5 OVER OAKLAND
We’re getting lots o’ points in this one. Everyone’s
writing off Cinci after confirmation (in their minds) last
week that Cincinnati is still hapless. I have to ask myself,
though, how a team in turmoil can lay 12.5 points. Oakland
has gone straight down hill since the Super Bowl spanking.
I don’t think they have yet recovered and may not
until mid-season. Counting the preseason, they have now
lost six straight games. Do you go from that to winning
by two touchdowns? I don’t think so. And Oakland
will have one eye on their always-big matchup with Denver
next week. Go Bungles!!
CLEVELAND +2.5 OVER BALTIMORE
Baltimore can’t be feeling too good right now. For
a team who’s strong point is defense, giving up 34
in your opener has got to raise doubts in your mind. Granted,
Cleveland didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard
last week, but this may work in our favor here. Small September
road dogs who score under 10 points in their previous game
do very well ATS versus teams that gave up a ton of points
last game. Cleveland wins this one outright.
DETROIT +6.5 OVER GREEN BAY
One of these two teams gave up 30 points last game and
lost as a five point favorite. The other team scored
42 points and won. Which one do you think should be favored
this week? If you guessed the team that scored 42 and
won, you’re wrong. Go figure. Green Bay has slipped
(think back to last year’s historical home playoff
loss). Detroit is up-and-coming. Harrington is 300% better
than his rookie campaign. The kid can play! Don’t
be surprised if GB is 0-2, and Detroit 2-0 after this
week.
SAN FRANCISCO +3 OVER ST. LOUIS
Talk about screwy lines! San Francisco is a playoff team
that won by 42 points last game. St. Louis kind of...
well... sucks. The public can’t seem to understand
this. This was the year that St. Louis was supposed to “be
back.” Mike Martz can’t coach. How do you
hand the ball to one of the best running backs of all
time so little? Hello! McFly! If they would just get
the ball in Marshall Faulk’s hands 25-30x per game,
they could win the Super Bowl. But they don’t.
The only thing that scares me a bit here is that Marc
Bulger will be taking the snaps for St. Louis. He is
the better QB in Missouri right now and St. Louis is
a better team with him. But, I still think SF will cover
this one. Some might argue that San Francisco will be
flat after such a high-flying performance. Don’t
count on it. Road teams that score the most points the
previous week and win by a ton do very well ATS the next
game, covering about 3 out of every 4. Take SF and the
points.
Remember, four of these games (all but SF) qualify for
our ML play this week.
Good luck!
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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible
for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no guarantees
and cannot be held responsible for any actions taken by
newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you wager, do so
only through legal channels. Good luck!
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