Wunderdog
NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions
2003
Weekly NFL Picks
Regular
Season Week 17
Protecting the Home Turf
The last week of the regular season is upon us. What does
that mean? As I like to say, go with the Dog! Actually,
go with the Home Dog. Home Underdogs have underperformed
this year. They are just 33-35 ATS (last week a poor 2-4).
I expect this week to return to normal with Home Underdogs
protecting their turf. Did you know how average-to-good
home underdogs do in their last game of the season? They
cover the spread about two thirds of the time. So, which
home dogs have enough going for them this week to make
them a selection? Which favorite(s) deserve a look? Read
on...
The Dog’s
picks went 4-4 in Week 16. I won with my sole 3-star
pick Houston, and also with 1-star selections
Minnesota, New Orleans and St. Louis. Losses include 2-star
New York Jets and 1-star picks Cleveland, Buffalo and Oakland.
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- This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings -
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UNDERRATED / BY / OVERRATED
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BUF 8.2 NE
CLE 7.1 CIN
JAC 6.6 ATL
CHI 6.2 KC
NO 6.1 DAL
TB 4.5 TEN
MIA 4.0 NYJ
BAL 3.4 PIT
HOU 3.3 IND
DEN 3.2 GB
CAR 2.1 NYG
SD 1.6 OAK
SEA 1.3 SF
WAS 1.2 PHI
STL 0.4 DET
MIN 0.2 ARI
For a detailed description of how to use the Matchup Power
Ratings, click here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/matchup-power-ratings.html
What is this
money-line thing? What is meant by playing a team “straight-up”?
Click here for an overview: http://www.freeunderdog.com/moneyline.html
On to this week's selections...
3 STARS (RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: 300 UNITS PER GAME):
NEW ORLEANS +1.5 over DALLAS (at New Orleans – 1:00PM
Eastern)
**PLAY ONLY IF PHILADELPHIA WINS ON SATURDAY!**
Assuming Philly wins on Saturday, Dallas will not have
a chance at winning the NFC East and getting home field
advantage. Yes, Dallas will want some momentum going into
the playoffs, but it won’t be enough to ensure a
win on Sunday after having their home-field bubble burst.
New Orleans really wants to finish the season on a high-note
to end the year at 8-8 which is a lot easier pill to swallow
than 7-9. Dallas plays much worse on the road. They are
1-3 ATS in their last four games and just 4-13 ATS on the
road following a great defensive performance (allowing
less than 10 points). Meanwhile, the Saints play the dog
role well, going 4-1 ATS their last five when getting points.
My Matchup Power Ratings tell us this spread is all wrong.
New Orleans, at home, should actually be giving around
a field goal. Parcells has the Cowboys playing above their
heads but statistically, they aren’t really better
than the Saints.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take New Orleans +1.5 and straight-up
to win (play only if Philly wins Saturday)
BALTIMORE -7 over PITTSBURGH (at Baltimore – SUNDAY
8:30PM Eastern)
Assuming Cincinnati beats Cleveland (they should), Baltimore
will need a win or tie in this game to win the NFC North.
They won’t let down if/when they get a big lead.
If that’s not enough motivation, they also have these
things going for them: Jamal Lewis will be running extra
hard to try to get the NFL record for most rushing yards
in a season (he needs 154 to surpass Eric Dickerson). His
O-line will be busting butt for him, too. Baltimore’s
playing at home in the last game of the season, a nationally
televised affair, against a division rival. The Ravens
will want the momentum going into the playoffs. Finally,
the Steelers have won six straight in Baltimore. Think
the Ravens want to put an end to that embarrassing streak?
If these motivational factors weren’t enough, the
Ravens are a much better team than the Steelers. My Matchup
Power Ratings indicate they could easily be laying 10 points
in this one. Even if Cincinnati loses, it won’t change
Baltimore’s game plan much. Either way, they will
run Jamal Lewis left, right, center - repeat. And, the
other motivational factors remain. The Ravens are 5-1-1
ATS at home this year and 13-4 ATS at home in December
while the Steelers are just 1-6 ATS this year off an ATS
win. Baltimore and its running game will be way too much
for the Steelers in this one.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Baltimore -7
2 STARS (RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: 200 UNITS PER GAME):
HOUSTON +7 over INDIANAPOLIS (at Houston – SUNDAY
1:00PM Eastern)
The Texans keep improving. They would have upset the Titans
as a touchdown underdog last week if it were not for Superman
Steve McNair. The Texans play especially well at home.
Their last six home losses have come by less than a touchdown.
They are 5-2 ATS at home this season. Indianapolis sure
has motivation in this game. They need the win or a Tennessee
loss to win their division and they are looking to atone
for an embarrassing loss last week to the Broncos. I think,
however, that Houston will play extremely well in this
game, and well enough to cover the large spread. Houston
doesn’t usually have long streaks of playing poorly.
To lose this game would mean ending the season on an 0-4
streak, something they haven’t done all season. The
Texans are 9-2 ATS off back-to-back losses. Indianapolis
should win this game but I think Houston covers the large
number.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Houston +7
WASHINGTON +7 over PHILADELPHIA (at Washington – SATURDAY
8:30PM Eastern)
Philadelphia reminds me a bit of Kansas City – lots
of wins but not that great of a team. Both have their defensive
problems which will limit their success in December and
January. How will the Eagles react to their first loss
in 10 games? Let’s look at what happened to two other
teams this season after they lost their first game following
a long winning streak. Kansas City went on an 0-4 streak
ATS and Minnesota an 0-5 ATS streak. With a run defense
like Philadelphia has, I love getting 7 points. The Eagles
have allowed 150+ rushing yards in five straight games.
Last week against San Francisco, it finally caught up with
them. It may not get any better this week. The Eagles lost
lost their best linebacker last game, Carlos Emmons with
a broken leg. Washington will no doubt run the ball a lot.
They are motivated to play spoiler and win at home to end
the season on some sort of up-note. Despite a poor season,
Washington has covered the spread 5 out of their last 7
games. This line is just too high. The Redskins have been
out of playoff contention now for some time and they have
shown an ability to play well in spite of this. They played
hard last week in what could be dubbed a meaningless game.
Finally, the Skins qualify for a 26-3 ATS trend involving
big home underdogs.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Washington +7 and straight-up to
win
1 STAR (RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: 100 UNITS PER GAME):
ARIZONA +7.5 OVER MINNESOTA (at Arizona – SUNDAY
4:05PM Eastern)
If Seattle losses to San Francisco on Saturday, this game
will not have playoff implications for Minnesota – they’ll
be in. Given that Seattle has won just one road game all
year, this is a distinct possibility. If that happens,
this game becomes an even stronger play. However, I like
it regardless of what happens in ‘Frisco. The Vikings
are an up-and-down team. They won big last week as I predicted,
in a highly important and emotional game. They often play
down to their competition, though. Four of their six losses
this year have come against teams with losing records.
Since mid-season, they’ve lost on the road to the
Giants, Chargers, Raiders and Bears. That gives pause to
think the Cardinals actually have a shot in this one. After
their last three big wins, the Vikings have fallen down
hard. After an 8 point win against Denver in week 7, they
lost by 12 to the Giants. After a 10 point win in week
vs. Detroit in week 12, they got crushed 17-48 by St. Louis.
And, after a week 14 34-7 win over Seattle they fell by
3 to the Chicago Bears. Now they are laying over a touchdown
on the road after a big win. The Vikings still have a very
suspect defense (ranked 26th in the league). As bad as
Arizona has been over the past few years, they are 17-6
ATS at home after 3+ losses. How’s this for a nice
contrast: Arizona is 5-1 ATS at home in their last six
while Minnesota is riding a 0-4 ATS streak on the road.
Oh yeah, and Minnesota is 1-15 SU in their last 16 games
played outdoors.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Arizona +7.5
DETROIT +10 OVER ST. LOUIS (at Detroit – SUNDAY 1:00PM
Eastern)
If Philadelphia losses to Washington on Saturday, St. Louis
won’t have anything to play for in this game as they
will have locked up home-field advantage for the playoffs.
Detroit certainly sucks this year. But they suck less at
home. They actually have a winning record at home (while
all three of the Rams’ losses this year have come
on the road). Detroit is riding a 12-4 ATS streak when
playing at home after back-to-back losses. This is too
many points.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Detroit +10
Good luck!
The Dog
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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible
for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no
guarantees and cannot be held responsible for any actions
taken by newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you wager,
do so only through legal channels. Good luck!
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