Wunderdog
NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions
2003
Weekly NFL Picks
Regular
Season Week 16
A Texas Upset?
Week 15 was a profitable week at +260 units as a result
of two big money-line winners. I was correct in calling
an upset win of Oakland (+6.5) over Baltimore and Chicago
(+3) over Minnesota. I was off the mark on Washington and
San Diego. My Matchup Power Ratings continue to pick up
speed at the end of the season with the top five going
4-1 ATS (11-4 the past three weeks).
This week I have broken my picks out based on a confidence
level as follows:
3 STAR PICKS:
My cream of the crop. These I feel VERY strongly about.
I’ll always recommend playing these
against the spread (ATS) and the underdogs straight-up
(money-line)
2 STAR PICKS:
Very confident in these picks. I’ll
almost always recommend playing these both ATS and the
dogs SU.
1 STAR PICKS:
Confident in these picks. I recommend playing these ATS
and I’ll selectively recommend playing
underdogs SU, as well.
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- This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings -
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UNDERRATED / BY / OVERRATED
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TB 7.2 ATL
CLE 4.7 BAL
NYJ 4.2 NE
STL 3.3 CIN
HOU 3.2 TEN
CAR 3.2 DET
CHI 3.0 WAS
DEN 2.9 IND
MIN 2.6 KC
SEA 2.5 ARI
GB 2.4 OAK
BUF 2.2 MIA
NO 1.8 JAC
NYG 1.6 DAL
PIT 1.5 SD
PHI 0.9 SF
For a detailed description of how to use the Matchup Power
Ratings, click here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/matchup-power-ratings.html
What is this
money-line thing? What is meant by playing a team “straight-up”?
Click here for an overview: http://www.freeunderdog.com/moneyline.html
On to this week's selections...
3 STARS:
HOUSTON +6 over TENNESSEE (at Houston – 1:00PM Eastern)
Steve McNair will probably play in this game. If he doesn’t,
it’s a bonus but it won’t matter. If Tennessee’s
passing game struggles due to a gimpy McNair or a rusty
Neil O’Donnell, they could be in trouble. Their rushing
attack is ranked 28th in the league. Another weakness of
this Titan’s team is their pass defense, one of the
league’s worst. Tennessee is giving up 27.5 points
per game over their last four, three of which were against
non-playoff teams. During that same span, the Texans have
scored just 10 points per game. I think that’s going
to change this week with the return of quarterback David
Carr (listed as probable) after missing four straight starts
with a sprained shoulder. He and the Houston fans will
be eager to rock at home in an attempt to play spoiler
against a playoff-bound team. In this, the second-to-last
week in the season, home underdogs cover the number better
than 7 out of 10 times. Houston is 4-1 ATS this year at
home.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Houston +6 and straight-up to win
2 STARS:
NY JETS +3 over NEW ENGLAND (at New York – SATURDAY
8:30PM Eastern)
This could be the Jets’ last big hurrah for 2003.
I won’t say it’s their Super Bowl, but getting
the league’s (arguably) best team at home on the
national Saturday night stage is big for New York. They’ve
had a frustrating season that has fallen plenty short of
expectations. They can go a long way towards putting that
behind them by beating New England on Saturday night. Combine
that with their weak six-point performance last week and
a strong desire to avoid a losing season, and you’ve
got a very motivated team, ladies and germs! The Pats have
won 10 straight and that kind of streak just can’t
last forever. Some would argue they’ve had some lucky
wins. Lucky or not, they’ve had their fair share
of close calls. The Jets running game got going last week
and they’ll need it against one of the stingiest
defenses in the league. At first glance, it looks like
the Jets won’t be able to score in this game. After
all, New England is giving up just 16 points per game and
the Jets have scored a combined total of 12 in their last
two! This is a perfect situation for a turnaround. The
Jets actually match up pretty well with the Pats. New York’s
primary weakness is run defense but New England doesn’t
have a running game to take advantage of it. The Jets should
actually hold up pretty well against Tom Brady and the
New England passing game. If the Chiefs lose to the Vikings
in the 5:00 Saturday game, this becomes an even better
pick as the Patriots will have less to play for. The Jets
are 19-4 ATS over the past six years when facing an opponent
on a win streak of two or more games. The Jets will bring
New England back to earth this week.
And don’t forget, all three of New England’s
ATS losses this year have come on the road.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take New York +3 and straight-up to win
1 STAR:
MINNESOTA +3 over Kansas City (at Minnesota – SATURDAY
5:00PM Eastern)
After that embarrassing performance last week, Minnesota
will bounce back. At home against one of the league’s
best, the Vikes will play at their best. KC still has defensive
problems and I expect a lot of Culpepper-to-Moss in this
one. Small home dogs in December fair well ATS against
teams coming off big wins.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Minnesota +3 and straight-up to win
BUFFALO -1.5
over MIAMI (at Buffalo – 1:00PM Eastern)
Could be cold and nasty in upstate New York. Miami players
have lost faith in themselves and have bought-in to the “December
Jinx.”
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Buffalo -1.5
CLEVELAND +3
over BALTIMORE (at Cleveland – 1:00PM
Eastern)
Yes, Baltimore falls for the second straight game. Statistically
speaking, game should be closer to a pick’em. The
Ravens left it all on the field against Cincinnati two
weeks ago.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Cleveland +3 and straight-up to win
NEW ORLEANS
+2 over JACKSONVILLE (at Jacksonville – 1:00PM
Eastern)
New Orleans playing with confidence and needs the win.
Jacksonville has nothing to play for.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take NEW ORLEANS +2 and straight-up to
win
ST. LOUIS -7
over Cincinnati (at St. Louis – 1:00PM
Eastern)
Marshall, Marshall, Marshall. Mike Martz finally has a
plan and it’s the right one. As long as he keeps
feeding Faulk the ball, this offense is scary good and
unstoppable at home.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take St. Louis -7
OAKLAND +4.5
over GREEN BAY (at Oakland – Monday
Night Game)
Monday night home game in December provides stage for Oakland
to show the league they haven’t quit. Green Bay had
great game last week but it was against San Diego and the
Pack is very inconsistent. Oakland rides momentum from
last week’s confidence-building win against Baltimore.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Oakland +4.5 and straight-up to win
Good luck!
The Dog
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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible
for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no
guarantees and cannot be held responsible for any actions
taken by newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you wager,
do so only through legal channels. Good luck!
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