Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions

2003 Weekly NFL Picks

Regular Season Week 15

Wow! Week 15 is already upon us. Just three more weeks of the regular season left. I am struck by a feeling that there are a lot of bad teams in the NFL this year and no great ones. At this point, it’s hard to pick a front-runner in either conference for the Super Bowl. These next three weeks will be very telling.

Week 14 winners included Tampa Bay, Denver, Buffalo and Atlanta. Losers included Miami, Arizona, Oakland and Cleveland. A mediocre 4-4 week that I’ll blame on Cleveland and their 4 turnovers :) The good news is that my Matchup Power Ratings have been doing well the past couple of weeks. The top five have gone 7-3 against-the-spread the past two weeks. Since the mid-point of the season, my overall picks are just 22-20 ATS. I continue to refine and learn each week and hope to get this winning percentage up over the last three weeks of the regular season. Even with a less-than-grand first half of the season, the season has remained a profitable one due to money-line winners.

This week I have four picks. I’ve reduced the number in an effort to focus on the strongest of my selections.

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- This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings -
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UNDERRATED / BY / OVERRATED
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TB 10.9 HOU
CHI 8.1 MIN
IND 4.2 ATL
OAK 2.2 BAL
WAS 2.0 DAL
STL 1.8 SEA
MIA 1.5 PHI
GB 1.2 SD
DEN 0.9 CLE
CIN 0.8 SF
NE 0.6 JAC
NYJ 0.6 PIT
KC 0.5 DET
NYG 0.3 NO
CAR 0.1 ARI
BUF 0.1 TEN

For a detailed description of how to use the Matchup Power Ratings, click here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/matchup-power-ratings.html

What is this money-line thing? What is meant by playing a team “straight-up”? Click here for an overview: http://www.freeunderdog.com/moneyline.html

On to this week's selections...

CHICAGO +3 over MINNESOTA (at Chicago – 1:00PM Eastern)
Minnesota chalked up a huge home win last week, 34-7 against Seattle. Maybe they’ve turned things around and are headed back towards where they started the season 6-0. Or, maybe not. Last week’s win came against a team that can’t win on the road, so I am not all that impressed. Chicago will play spoiler this week. As if this Vikings defense wasn’t having enough problems, their defensive coordinator accepted the head coaching position at Central Florida and won’t be in Minnesota next year. Where do you think his head is now? He’s not even being shy about it! He was quoted this week saying “UCF is my job right now and I will work on this job too.” The Vikings are ranked 27th in the league in total defense. Since week 8, they’ve given up over 28 points per game – and that average includes a 14 point performance against Detroit and a 7 point defensive effort last week. Outside of these two games, they’re giving up 35 points per game! By the second half, it should be dipping below freezing in Soldier Field, making it difficult on a dome team like Minnesota. The Bears are motivated by pride and the hope of reaching .500 by winning out. They are also motivated to spoil a hated division-rival’s playoff hopes. Rex Grossman gets the start at quarterback for the Bears. Normally I don’t like being on the side of rookie QBs but against this defense I’ll make an exception. The Chicago passing game, ranked 31st in the league, certainly can’t get any worse! A division home dog in December is a beautiful thing.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Chicago +3 and straight-up to win

OAKLAND +6.5 over BALTIMORE (at Oakland – 4:05PM Eastern)
The up-and-coming vs. the down-and-out. Baltimore crushed Cincinnati last week in a game that many had them losing. It was a huge win that all but locked up the division and a playoff birth for the Ravens, while sending the Cinderella Bengals a strong message. This particular game is sandwiched between 3 division games for Baltimore. After playing the Bengals last week, they meet Cleveland in week 16 and Pittsburgh in week 17. Because of this situation, and the fact that they’re coming off two very big wins (combined score of 75-19), Baltimore’s in a bad, letdown situation. If that weren’t enough, after another bad performance by the Raiders last week, the Ravens will enter this game with their guard way down. Opponents are accusing the Raiders of quitting – a shot to the heart of any red-blooded competitive NFL player. To some extent, it rings true. If you’ve seen the Raiders play this year, you know exactly what I’m talking about. I think this provides plenty of motivation for Raiders players this week. Oakland certainly has had its issues this year, but do they deserve to be a 6.5 point home underdog? That’s the equivalent of at least a 9.5 point neutral-field advantage (probably more in December, where home field plays a bigger role). My Matchup Power Ratings indicate that the Raiders should probably be closer to 4.5 point dogs. The Raiders have played their best ball at home this year, going a relatively respectable 3-3. Two of those three home losses were very close (lost by 7 to the Chiefs and lost in overtime to the Jets). The Ravens have put together two straight super-human performances. This week they let down and let the Raiders shock them.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Oakland +6.5 and straight-up to win

SAN DIEGO +4.5 over GREEN BAY (at San Diego – 4:15PM Eastern)
Brett Favre just isn’t the same this year. The Pack are sitting on the brink of playoff elimination and a lot of it has to do with the fact that Favre is playing like an average quarterback in 2003. He’s thrown 7 interceptions the last three games alone. The Chargers are slowly improving. They’ve covered the spread in their last two games and they are 2-0 ATS as home favorites of over a field goal this year. Those two games were against winning teams (they beat Minnesota in week 10 and gave Kansas City a run for their money two weeks ago). Home dogs off a win as an away dog in which they scored fewer than 15 points are very successful against the spread. The Chargers will be able to keep this game close and may win it.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take San Diego +4.5 and straight-up to win

WASHINGTON pick’em over DALLAS (at WASHINGTON – 4:15PM Eastern)
The Redskins would like nothing better than to spoil Dallas’ chance at the playoffs. Now they get the chance to do just that - at home. Washington players and coaches are bitter about the week 9 loss to the Cowboys and the fact that the up-start Cowboys have a shot at the playoffs while the Skins do not. The Cowboys desperately want to turn things around after losing two straight but I’m not sure they have the confidence, or the offense, right now to do it. Quincy Carter is playing poorly and Dallas’ running game is not good at carrying the load. Carter has thrown 13 interceptions over the past seven games and the excellent Dallas defense has not been doing enough to compensate. The past two weeks, Dallas’ defense has looked average or worse. Washington starts Tim Hasselbeck at quarterback as Patrick Ramsey is done for the season. It really shouldn’t matter much. My Power Ratings say the Skins should be favored by a couple of points in this one and by game time, they may actually be getting a point. December divisional home dogs historically have done very well against the spread. Dallas has won 11 of the last 12 meetings but the Skins make it 11 of 13 this week.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Washington straight-up to win

Good luck!
The Dog

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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no guarantees and cannot be held responsible for any actions taken by newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you wager, do so only through legal channels. Good luck!

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