Wunderdog
NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions
2003
Weekly NFL Picks
Regular
Season Week 14
I
can’t wait for this week
in the NFL. The playoff atmosphere is upon us with many
of this weekend’s games having major playoff implications.
In five of the six divisions, the top two teams meet in
matchups that will most-likely determine the division winner.
Last week’s
picks: Week 13 winners included New Orleans over Washington,
San Diego over Kansas City and
Jacksonville over Tampa Bay. Jacksonville and New Orleans
won straight-up, with the Saints paying off the money-line.
Losers included Arizona, Atlanta, Dallas and Oakland.
This week I have eight picks including both the Sunday
and Monday night games.
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- This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings -
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UNDERRATED / BY / OVERRATED
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CLE 5.9 STL
BAL 4.8 CIN
GB 4.4 CHI
BUF 4.1 NYJ
DET 3.3 SD
SEA 3.1 MIN
NYG 2.6 WAS
DEN 2.5 KC
HOU 2.2 JAC
TEN 1.4 IND
CAR 1.3 ATL
SF 1.1 ARI
MIA 1.0 NE
PHI 0.7 DAL
NO 0.7 TB
PIT 0.3 OAK
For a detailed description of how to use the Matchup Power
Ratings, click here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/matchup-power-ratings.html
What is this
money-line thing? What is meant by playing a team “straight-up”?
Click here for an overview: http://www.freeunderdog.com/moneyline.html
On to this week's selections...
OAKLAND +5 over
PITTSBURGH (at Pittsburgh – 1:00PM
Eastern)
The Steelers’ season ended last week with a heart-breaking
loss to Cincinnati. Their emotions won’t be in this
game. Oakland has been out of playoff contention for weeks
(they’re over it) and is playing better than they
started the season. How will they react this week to their
coach publicly calling them out? They could quit on him,
or they will play hard. I am thinking it will be the latter.
The natural reaction to someone calling your play poor
is to try to prove him wrong. If Oakland can control their
penalties, they can win games. Last week they gave Denver
two first downs on stupid 4th down penalties. Both led
to Denver scores. Statistically these teams are very close
but I give the emotional edge to Oakland getting the points.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Oakland +5 and straight-up to win
TAMPA BAY +1.5 over NEW ORLEANS (at New Orleans – 1:00PM
Eastern)
Last week New Orleans won a game they were supposed to
lose and Tampa Bay lost a game they were supposed to win.
Tampa hit a new season low, dropping their fourth out of
five and falling to 5-7. I expect them to bounce back this
week on pride alone. The Saints season continues to be
a tale of two teams. After starting the season 1-5, they
have climbed to 6-6. But wait. Who have they beaten? Their
six wins came against Houston, Chicago, Atlanta, Tampa
Bay and Washington, teams with a combined record of just
21-39. The Bucs are 4-2 ATS following an ATS loss this
year and they qualify for an 82-37 ATS trend involving
losing visiting dogs facing another losing/.500 team that
has gone 15-1 ATS over the past three seasons. The Bucs
get revenge for their earlier loss to the Saints this week.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Tampa Bay +1.5 and straight-up to
win
ARIZONA +10 over SAN FRANCISCO (at San Francisco – 4:05PM
Eastern)
San Francisco doesn’t have much to feel good about.
Last week they suffered their worst loss since the 1999
season in a game that all-but-ensures their players will
be watching football instead of playing it in January.
In this game they are laying a whopping 10 points and will
be without their leading rusher, Garrison Hearst, who sprained
his knee last week. Arizona didn’t fare any better
in week 13, losing 28-3 to lock-up a losing season. But,
they are not being asked to cover a 10-point number. Low-scoring
teams cover the spread two-thirds of the time the week
following a game in which they scored under 10 points.
Also, big road dogs cover 7 out of 10 when both teams are
off road losses.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Arizona +10 and straight-up to win
MIAMI +3 over NEW ENGLAND (at New England – 4:15PM
Eastern)
The Patriots have been the league’s hottest team
since week 5, having won eight straight (and covering 7
of them). Miami struggles in the cold in December, having
won just 7 out of 35 on the road during the regular season
in December and January over the past 15 years. The Patriots
beat the Dolphins in Miami earlier this year. So it’s
all Patriots in this one, right? I just love these games
in which the cards appear so stacked against us. As I stated
a couple of weeks ago when picking Cincinnati to upset
the then-undefeated Kansas City Chiefs, NFL teams cannot
play at a super-high level week-in-and-week out for very
long. The Chiefs did it for 9 games and then faltered.
New England has done it for eight straight weeks and I
think this is the week they come back down to earth. Miami
is riding high after last week’s thrashing of the
NFL’s number one defense. They are coming off 10
days of rest and extra prep time. They are especially motivated
by their earlier loss to New England and the “cold-weather” monkey
that they would love to get off their back. New England’s
wins this year have not been dominating. They are a very
good team that finds ways to win but they are playing with
fire. Their average margin of victory is only 4 points
(not great for a 10-2 team) and two of their wins have
required overtime. Minus the week one blip against Houston,
Miami’s three other losses have come against teams
with a combined mark of 27-9 (Tennessee, Indianapolis and
New England). This is a must-win game for the Dolphins
while it is a nice-to-win for the Patriots. And one last
dollop of icing on the cake: The Fins are 5-1 ATS on the
road this year.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Miami +3
DENVER -3 over KANSAS CITY (at Denver – 4:15PM Eastern)
Both teams are motivated in this one but I give the nod
to Denver. Despite being outplayed, Kansas City won the
first contest in a game that triggered Denver’s collapse
after a 4-0 start. Denver has been looking forward to this
game since the final tick of the clock in that first one
eight weeks ago. In a way, this is Denver’s Super
Bowl for 2003. You can bet the Broncs will be fired up
and play their best game of the season on Sunday. As I’ve
mentioned before, Kansas City isn’t as good as their
11-1 record suggests. Their defense is suspect and they’ve
won some squeakers. My Matchup Power Ratings indicate Denver
should be closer to a six point favorite here. The Broncos
are tough to figure out this year, but this I know: They
have the talent to beat any team in the league. This is
a game in which I think they will play at a high-enough
level to do it. Clinton Portis, who found his groove last
week with 170 yards on the ground, should be able to run
all over the NFL’s 27th ranked rushing defense. The
Chiefs game-plan will be to get up early to take Denver
out of its running game. However, they will be facing the
league’s 2nd best defense. December home favorites
that are having mediocre years cover the spread about 75%
of the time when facing very good teams. Also, Denver qualifies
for a trend involving small home favorites coming off a
game in which they found their running game that is 16-1
ATS the last several years.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Denver -3
BUFFALO -3 over N.Y. JETS (at Buffalo – 4:15PM Eastern)
Drew Bledsoe is listed as probable but I expect him to
play. The Patriots have struggled on offense this year,
putting up just 16 points per game. Luckily for them, their
defense has played very strong, limiting opponents to the
same number of points per game. Buffalo definitely plays
better at home. In fact, while they’ve lost by an
average of 6 points on the road this year, they’ve
won by an average of 7 points at home (while holding opponents
to just 12.5 ppg). Buffalo’s offense got untracked
last week, putting up three touchdowns against the Giants
on the road. This week they have a good shot at doing it
again against one of the league’s worst defenses
(ranked 27th overall). The Bills, averaging nearly 150
yards per game on the ground over the past six, should
have a lot of success in this area on Sunday. The Jets,
with Chad Pennington back under center, are playing much
better than they were earlier in the season. However, they
now go on the road against the league’s 3rd best
pass defense and 3rd best overall defense. Based on the
Bills’ strong home performances and NY’s terrible
defense, my Matchup Power Ratings tell the Bills they should
be a bigger favorite (closer to a touchdown). Buffalo should
be able to spoil New York’s Cinderella run.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Buffalo -3
ATLANTA +1 over CAROLINA (at Atlanta – Sunday Night)
Michael Vick. At Home. National Television. Do you need
another reason? Having played over a dozen plays last week,
he shouldn’t be rusty or scared. He looked good in
last week’s game, completing 73% of his passes and
rushing for over 5 yards per carry. If you aren’t
excited about this game and watching Mike Vick, check your
pulse. The Falcons fans are going to be FIRED UP on Sunday
night. If there is any team that can go from worst to great
with the addition of one player, it is the Falcons. Forget
the 2-10 team you’ve seen this year. Instead, remember
the team that beat Green Bay on the road in the playoffs
last year. Even without Vick, Atlanta has been one play
away from winning each of the past three weeks. With him,
they will be a winning team. Can Vick play against one
of the better defenses in the league? Hmmmm. Let’s
see, last year the Falcons won both games against the Panthers
by a combined score of 71-0. This is a better Carolina
squad than last year (on offense, at least), but I don’t
see them overcoming the emotional high that will be in
the Dome this week. Carolina may be fading again as they
have lost two straight and three of their last five. The
Panthers are one of the worst red-zone teams in the league
and are just 1-6 ATS this year as a favorite.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Atlanta +1 and straight-up to win
CLEVELAND +4 over St. Louis (at Cleveland – Monday
Night)
After last week’s dominating 48-17 performance, the
prognosticators have St. Louis winning the Super Bowl again.
Hang on there tiger. Doesn’t anyone remember the
week 11 game against lowly Chicago in which they barely
won by two points? What about the week 12 game against
Arizona in which they won by just three? Yes, Marshall
Faulk is playing well (finally) but don’t forget
that Marc Bulger has been playing bad enough to fuel talk
of his being replaced by Kurt Warner. He’s thrown
11 interceptions in the past five games. This week St.
Louis needs to travel to the Dawg Pound on Monday night
against an excellent defense (fifth in the league). Not
good for the Rams as they play considerably worse on the
road. All three of their losses (and all four ATS losses)
have come away from home this year. At home they’ve
won by an average margin of 36-17 but on the road their
average score has been 22-24. After putting up 44 points
in week 11, the Browns have struggled on offense the past
two weeks, scoring a combined 13 points. After those two
poor showings, I expect them to show up on Monday night.
My Matchup Power Ratings actually indicate Cleveland should
be favored in this game. Spurred on by the national spotlight
at home, and a very good defense, The Browns should be
able to contain St. Louis’ offense enough to keep
this one close.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Cleveland +4 and straight-up to win
Good luck!
The Dog
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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible
for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no
guarantees and cannot be held responsible for any actions
taken by newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you wager,
do so only through legal channels. Good luck!
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