Wunderdog
NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions
2003
Weekly NFL Picks
Regular
Season Week 13
Week
12 was a week of very close calls. My picks went 3-3
against the spread covering with
Houston, Jacksonville and Arizona and missing with Buffalo,
Atlanta and San Diego. It was a week of squeakers which
unfortunately didn’t go our way. Atlanta lost by
7 as a 6.5 point dog and Buffalo lost by 3 getting 2.5
(some of you pushed at +3). Meanwhile, all three of the
ATS winners had the straight-up win taken from them with
seconds to spare. All three were winning outright with
less than 40 seconds to go before they lost the game (but
covered the spread).
This week I like seven games including a tasty Turkey
Day matchup between the Cowboys and the Dolphins.
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- This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings -
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UNDERRATED / BY / OVERRATED
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CHI 5.3 ARI
STL 4.5 MIN
BAL 3.5 SF
IND 2.8 NE
NO 2.2 WAS
CIN 2.0 PIT
CAR 1.8 PHI
GB 1.6 DET
CLE 1.5 SEA
MIA 1.5 DAL
KC 1.1 SD
TEN 1.0 NYJ
TB 0.7 JAC
HOU 0.7 ATL
OAK 0.2 DEN
BUF 0.0 NYG
As a reminder,
the Matchup Power Ratings highlight for you the games
in which the lines-makers have set the line
incorrectly, BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE
TEAMS. To estimate the correct STATISTICAL line for the
game, simply subtract the number above from the underrated
team’s line. REMEMBER: These ratings DO NOT account
for injuries, motivation, or historical trends. Rather,
they are 100% driven by the statistical performances of
the two teams season-to-date. As a result, I will play
against the ratings due to these other very important factors.
On to this week's selections...
DALLAS -3 over MIAMI (at Dallas – THURSDAY 4:15PM
Eastern)
Dallas is riding high on confidence and enthusiasm after
guaranteeing them-selves a non-losing season last week.
They won a game that many thought they’d lose against
a great Carolina team as the Cowboy’s offense found
a way to score points against a tough defense. The Boys
always play well at home under the big lights on Turkey
Day (6-2 last 8 as favorite). This Dallas defense is playing
as well as Tampa’s vaunted D did last year and we
know where that got them. Dallas is holding opponents to
238 yards and 15 points per game. While Miami has a good
defense as well, their offense is in the dumps (ranked
27th in the league). I don’t expect much scoring
by the Dolphins against the league’s best who will
thrive on the opportunity to send a message to the league
on national television.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Dallas -3
ARIZONA +4.5 over CHICAGO (at Chicago – 1:00PM Eastern)
What? The Bears favored by 4.5 points? Oh, wait... They
beat the Broncos last week and they’re playing the
Cardinals on Sunday. That explains it – sort of.
I still think it’s ludicrous to lay points with a
team that ranks dead last in offense. Don’t expect
the Bears to chalk up back-to-back wins – expect
them to come back down to earth. Poor defensive teams off
a close loss cover the spread about two thirds of the time
in their next game if they’re a medium-sized dog.
Arizona nearly (and should’ve) beat St. Louis last
week. They are at least as good as Chicago and probably
better. Take the points.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Arizona +4.5 and straight-up to win
ATLANTA +3 over HOUSTON (at Houston – 1:00PM Eastern)
Mike Vick vs. David Carr. Oh wait, I guess we’ll
have to wait for that matchup. Instead, we’ll see
the league’s two worst defenses face off. As I stated
last week when I picked Houston over the Patriots, the
Texans are an up-and-down club. They struggle to put back-to-back
positive performances together. Now they are laying 3 points
to an Atlanta team that has recently found some game. This
is the first time all season that Houston has been favored.
Last year it happened only once and they were plastered
in that game by the Bengals 38-3. Doug Johnson put up his
best numbers of the season last week against Tennessee
which will give him enough confidence to play well this
game. Close matchup so I’ll take the points.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Atlanta +3
NEW ORLEANS +1.5 over WASHINGTON (at Washington – 4:05PM
Eastern)
The Saints are a much better team. They’ve won 4
out of their last 6 with the two losses coming against
playoff teams who are playing very well (Carolina and Philadelphia).
Their running game is clicking. RB Deuce McAllister has
rushed for 100+ yards in eight straight games (184 yards
last game). If it weren’t for three lost fumbles
(including one in Philly’s end-zone), they probably
would have beat the Eagles last week. New Orleans is 5-0
this year against teams with losing records. Can someone
tell me why Washington’s favored in this game? The
Redskins have lost six of their last seven games. Starting
QB Patrick Ramsey is doubtful. Washington’s out of
the playoff hunt while New Orleans absolutely needs this
one to stay in it. The Skins’ have continuing dissention
in the ranks (Bruce Smith is complaining about playing
time). Don’t look a gift-horse in the mouth. Take
the points and the Saints.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take New Orleans +1.5 and straight-up
to win
OAKLAND +3 over DENVER (at OAKLAND – 4:15PM Eastern)
What happened to Denver last week? They lost to a team
that hadn’t won on the road in over 14 months! Rumor
has it head coach Mike Shanahan has lost his luster with
his players and he’s getting hammered by the media.
Can he win without Elway? Doesn’t seem so. Meanwhile
Oakland is actually playing pretty well. They nearly beat
Kansas City last week after surprising Minnesota the week
before. The Broncos have had the Raider’s number
recently but Oakland’s got revenge on their side
(they lost to Denver 10-31 in week 4) and can play crazy
like a team with nothing to lose. Oakland is 14-3 ATS in
recent revenge games. Denver will have one eye on next
week’s big matchup vs. Kansas City – a team
that Denver can’t help but think about after their
close loss early in the season that triggered their downfall.
Oakland keeps this close.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Oakland +3
SAN DIEGO +7 over KANSAS CITY (at San Diego – 4:15PM
Eastern)
San Diego showed it can put up some points against a poor
rushing defense when it scored 42 against Minnesota three
weeks ago. LaDainian Tomlinson is quietly putting up another
great year, with over 1,000 yards through eleven games
and should run wild against the league’s 26th ranked
run defense. San Diego qualifies for several high-percentage
trends involving big home dogs with losing records versus
winning teams. Kansas City continues to prove it may have
peaked a bit too early.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take San Diego +7 and straight-up to win
JACKSONVILLE +3 over TAMPA BAY (at Jacksonville – Sunday
Night)
The Bucs haven’t won two straight all year and I
think that trend will continue. I keep waiting for Jacksonville
rookie QB Leftwich to have a good game (the rookie jitters
are gone) and this might be the week. He seems to like
his new target, Kevin Johnson (released by Cleveland two
weeks ago), who caught 5 passes for 77 yards in his debut.
Fred Taylor continues to run well (919 yards on the season)
and should have a good day against a Tampa Bay rushing
defense that hasn’t faired well against the run,
especially versus straight-ahead tough backs like Taylor.
The Jaguars should be able to keep the Tampa offense in
check as the Jags boast the league’s third-best rushing
defense. It should be a tough day for Tampa’s anemic
running game which sorely misses Mike Alstott. Home dogs
cover about two thirds of the time when facing an opponent
off a close win (6-2 this year, 9-3 in 2002).
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Jacksonville +3
Good luck!
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and cannot be held responsible for any actions taken by
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