Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions

2003 Weekly NFL Picks

Regular Season Week 12

Week 11 was another big week to the tune of +475 units, with the money-line providing the profit. We went 5-5 on picks against the spread and 4-3 with the money-line selections. The money-line picks again included some big upsets with four dogs winning outright:

Cincinnati +6 beat Kansas City
Houston +7 beat Buffalo
Green Bay +4 beat Tampa Bay
Oakland +4.5 beat Minnesota

I also correctly picked Chicago to cover the spread, just missing the money-line win with a last second St. Louis field goal. The losing picks included three big favorites (Tennessee, New Orleans and Carolina) and two dogs (Arizona and the Jets).

This week I feel very strong about six games (12 picks in all including money-line).

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- This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings -
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UNDERRATED / BY / OVERRATED
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CLE 6.6 PIT
MIA 5.7 WAS
SEA 3.3 BAL
DET 2.5 MIN
HOU 2.4 NE
BUF 2.4 IND
CAR 2.3 DAL
NYJ 1.9 JAC
NO 1.4 PHI
SF 1.3 GB
TEN 1.2 ATL
ARI 0.8 STL
CIN 0.7 SD
NYG 0.6 TB
DEN 0.5 CHI
KC 0.5 OAK

As a reminder, the Matchup Power Ratings highlight for you the games in which the lines-makers have set the line incorrectly, BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TEAMS. To estimate the correct STATISTICAL line for the game, simply subtract the number above from the underrated team’s line. REMEMBER: These ratings DO NOT account for injuries, motivation, or historical trends. Rather, they are 100% driven by the statistical performances of the two teams season-to-date. As a result, I will play against the ratings due to these other very important factors.

On to this week's selections...

BUFFALO +2.5 over INDIANAPOLIS (at Buffalo – 1:00PM Eastern)
Last week Buffalo hit a new low-point of the season, falling at home to the Texans, with their backup QB, as a 7 point favorite. It was their third-straight loss and a humiliating one. As they say, when you’re at rock-bottom, the only way to go is up. I expect Buffalo to come out with fired up this week. And, they have the weapons to keep this Indy offensive machine in check. Buffalo has the league’s second-best pass defense, fourth best total defense, and is allowing just 17 points per game. The problem, of course, has been their offense, ranked 29th in the league. They’ve managed just 21 points total in their last three games! This can’t continue. I expect them to adjust and find a way to produce some offense. Teams that have performed extremely poorly offensively for several games do very well ATS as home dogs. The Bills should be able to run the ball against the Colts who have allowed the most 100-yard rushers (six) in the league this year. Just as great teams can’t maintain great play every week, poor teams eventually break out of slumps. I believe this to be the week that Buffalo’s offense breaks out of its slump enough to win the game. The Colts needed a fake field goal last week to win and just covered the spread by one point. This week they will struggle again to win.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Buffalo +2.5 and straight-up to win

HOUSTON +5.5 over NEW ENGLAND (at Houston – 1:00PM Eastern)
We all know Houston can pull off the shocker. This year they beat Miami as a 14 point underdog, Jacksonville as a 3 point dog, Carolina as a 6.5 point dog and, last week, Buffalo as a 7 point underdog. Then in other games they get killed. Which team will show up on Sunday? The upset-in’ kind, of course! New England’s off a big emotional, nationally-televised win against Dallas. The prognosticators now have New England as a front-runner for the Super Bowl. And why not? They’ve won six straight games. What’s next? They get to travel to Texas to play a losing team they are supposed to easily beat. As is the theme for my picks this week, good teams sometimes lose when they shouldn’t. New England’s offense has scored 20+ points in just one game out of the last five (against Denver). They needed a last-minute touchdown to win that game. Houston’s four wins have come against teams that bear a striking resemblance to the Patriots (good defense/mediocre offense). Houston’s motivation in this one is two-fold. They are aching to win back-to-back games for the first time in their history and they are still in the wild-card race. New England, on the other hand, will find it extremely difficult not to relax after six hard-fought wins. The Patriots are 8-0-1 against the spread in their last nine. I see that streak ending on Sunday.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Houston +5.5 and straight-up to win

JACKSONVILLE +4 over NEW YORK JETS (at New York – 1:00PM Eastern)
This matchup is the only game of the week with no real playoff implications. Both teams are struggling but Jacksonville is actually playing with some hope. I am not a big fan of rookie QBs but this may be the situation that allows Leftwich to post a good game. He now has a decent number of games under his belt and he faces a miserable Jets’ defense on Sunday. Last week they gave up over 500 yards to a Colts team that was without two of their biggest offensive weapons. Jacksonville seems to be getting a little better each week. They upset the Colts two weeks ago and last week they nearly upset the Titans as a 10-point dog. Their defense is actually quite strong, ranked 10th in the league. If they can muster some offense (a good chance this week), they should win this game.
....THE DOG SAYS: Take Jacksonville +4 and straight-up to win

ARIZONA +7.5 over ST. LOUIS (at Arizona – 4:05PM Eastern)
Arizona’s a different team at home. All three of their spread wins this year are at Sun Devil Stadium as they have surprised some pretty good teams in front of the friendly crowd. They have won outright against Green Bay, San Francisco and Cincinnati. St. Louis’ offense (especially Marc Bulger) is still struggling a bit. This is a team living on the edge. The Rams needed a last second field goal to beat another poor team (Chicago) last week. Their rushing offense is third-worst in the league and Marc Bulger continues to give Kurt Warner hope. Arizona’s in a good spot at home getting over a touchdown after their big loss last week and I like them to keep this one close and potentially pull the huge upset.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Arizona +7.5 and straight-up to win

ATLANTA +6.5 over TENNESSEE (at Atlanta – 4:15PM Eastern)
All signs point to a Titans blowout but those are just the opportunities I love! Atlanta’s playing with some spunk. They beat the Giants two weeks ago as a 10.5 point underdog and nearly beat the Saints last week as an 8.5 point dog. They’ve found a running game as Warrick Dunn has put up 162 and 172 yards on the ground the past couple of weeks. It won’t help Tennessee that their all-pro defensive end Jevon Kearse is questionable for this game with a left ankle sprain. Tennessee is certainly having a great year and it seems everyone is talking Super Bowl. But their stats tell a slightly different story. Statistically, they are no better than average (ranked 12th in offense and 15th in defense). Steve McNair always keeps them in games but this team is due for an upset and this just might be the game. Big home dogs with poor winning records cover the spread about two thirds of the time in the NFL. As we saw last week in Cincinnati, teams simply can’t maintain a super-high level of play every single week. At some point, they slow down to take a breadth and get caught. The Titans have won five straight and have held their last two opponents under 10 points. They are big-time due for a letdown.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Atlanta +6.5 and straight-up to win

SAN DIEGO +2.5 over CINCINNATI (at San Diego – 4:15PM Eastern)
Trap game for Cincinnati. After a huge win last week they travel to San Diego who are coming off one of the worst defeats of any game this season. Don’t read too much into last week’s Bengals win over KC. As I mentioned in last week’s newsletter, it had a lot to do with the situation and motivation, neither of which are in Cinci’s favor this week. San Diego knows it can right last week’s catastrophe by beating the team that is now on the pedestal. Losing teams that have lost three of their last four in the second half of the season typically do very well against the spread (they are undervalued). I expect San Diego to play well enough to win this game.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take San Diego +2.5 and straight-up to win

Good luck!

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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no guarantees and cannot be held responsible for any actions taken by newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you wager, do so only through legal channels. Good luck!

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