Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions

2003 Weekly NFL Picks

Regular Season Week 11

Week 10 was a pretty big winning week. I went 3-2 on my picks against the spread and 3-1 with my money-line selections. The three ML picks were good-sized upsets:

Jacksonville +6 over Indianapolis
San Diego +5.5 over Minnesota
Philadelphia +4.5 over Green Bay

All three won outright, paying big (between 1.7 and 2.25 to 1). The two losses were Arizona +7.5 and Seattle -3. Due to the three big money-line winners, it was a 500 unit+ positive week.

This week we’re in for a pre-Thanksgiving feast. Out of the 16 games on the docket, I like 10 of them!

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- This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings -
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UNDERRATED / BY / OVERRATED
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CAR 6.9 WAS
SF 5.5 PIT
OAK 5.5 MIN
TEN 4.3 JAC
NO 3.6 ATL
BUF 3.4 HOU
BAL 3.4 MIA
ARI 2.2 CLE
SEA 1.9 DET
DAL 1.5 NE
NYJ 1.4 IND
CIN 1.4 KC
DEN 1.4 SD
CHI 1.3 STL
NYG 1.2 PHI
GB 0.6 TB

As a reminder, the Matchup Power Ratings highlight for you the games in which the lines-makers have set the line incorrectly, BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TEAMS. To estimate the correct STATISTICAL line for the game, simply subtract the number above from the underrated team’s line. REMEMBER: These ratings DO NOT account for injuries, motivation, or historical trends. Rather, they are 100% driven by the statistical performances of the two teams season-to-date. As a result, I often play against the ratings due to these other very important factors.

On to this week's selections...

CAROLINA -6 over WASHINGTON (at Carolina – 1:00PM Eastern)
What a big win for Washington last week. Ooooh. Sense a bit of sarcasm? I’m not sold. For some crazy reason Seattle chose NOT to blitz the Redskins last week and it cost them the game. Spurrier went for it on 4th and inches from his own 25 yard line with plenty of time to go in a tied ball game. A few inches less on that play and we’re looking at a 3-6 Skins team that is a 9 point underdog in this contest. Instead, we get a break! My power ratings indicate Carolina should be laying well over ten points in this one. I hope John Fox is listening: The key to beating the Redskins is to rush Patrick Ramsey. Carolina has the weapons to do just that and they have a great running game. Stephen Davis is listed as probable for this game with an ankle injury but I can’t see him missing this game unless he’s on his death bed. He will be playing with a purpose against his former team – a team that released him last year. Bad blood spells good situation for us. Last week’s game will be exposed as a fluke for the Skins who get hammered in this one.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Carolina -6

ARIZONA +6 over CLEVELAND (at Cleveland – 1:00PM Eastern)
Let’s see. I’m 3-6. I just lost my starting running back for four weeks due to a substance abuse suspension. I think I’ll cut my leading receiver for this year and the four previous seasons. Hmmm. Well at least the QB position is stable on this team. Oh wait – is it Holcomb? Is it Couch? Heck, I dunno. These two teams statistically are pretty close although Arizona is actually better. And, they’ve been playing much better lately. They’ve won two of their last three including upset victories over San Francisco and Cincinnati. They continue to get less respect than they deserve due to their consistent horrible play the past few years. This spread should be closer to a field goal so we are getting value. Visiting dogs versus poor teams in a slump coming home after some road games cover two thirds of the time. It wouldn’t shock me in the least bit to see Zona walk away with the win.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Arizona +6 and straight-up to win

CHICAGO +6 over ST. LOUIS (at Chicago – 1:00PM Eastern)
Here we’re faced with yet another game that looks like a blowout. One of the league’s top offenses faces a team that has struggled all season long. Chicago doesn’t seem to have much going for them except that they’ve quietly established something that resembles a defense. After allowing 29+ points per game over their first six, they’ve allowed fewer than 12 the last three games. Granted, these games were against poor teams but it is a good sign. If the Bears play well anywhere, it’s at home where they are 3-1. Chicago qualifies for a couple of historical trends that are a combined 49-7 ATS. The Bears haven’t had a real shocker win all season long and I think they are due for one. The Rams, off a short week of practice against one of the league’s worst teams, are primed for a letdown.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Chicago +6 and straight-up to win

CINCINNATI +6 over KANSAS CITY (at Cincinnati – 1:00PM Eastern)
Last week Simeon Rice guaranteed a Tampa Bay victory over Carolina and walked off the field a loser. This week Cincinnati receiver Chad Johnson has guaranteed a win over the 9-0 Chiefs. Will it backfire against him? Not necessarily! Yes, I think Cinci has a chance to win this one. Cincinnati’s on a bit of a roll. They’ve won 3 of their last four games. Running back Rudi Johnson’s on a tear (Corey who?). Johnson recorded his second straight 100+ yard game last week with 182 yards on 43 carries against Houston. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s poor defense (ranked 25th in the league) is going to catch up with them at some point this season. The Bengals now believe in themselves and won’t fold just because an undefeated team is coming to town. In fact, I believe it will have an opposite effect on them as evidenced by Johnson’s defiant statement. Cincinnati views this as their chance to show the league they are no longer the Bungles. Home teams cover about two thirds of the time when facing an opponent off two big home wins. Kansas City will lose a game before the season’s over. Why not this week? They are coming off another blowout win, feeling great about themselves and their season. It’s hard to maintain top intensity week after week when you’re winning so easily.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Cincinnati +6 and straight-up to win

GREEN BAY +4 over TAMPA BAY (at Tampa Bay – 4:15PM Eastern)
Don’t read too much into Green Bay losing at home last week. Philly was in a good spot as I mentioned in last week’s newsletter. The combination of a tape-covered splint and pouring rain put a damper on Favre’s game. Green Bay will be fired up for this game as it is their first meeting since Tampa’s 21-7 win last year. In that game, Warren Sapp disrespected Green Bay head coach Mike Sherman in a heated post-game confrontation that was played over and over on national television. The Packers players will do everything they can to avoid another loss and stick up for their coach and for their teammate Chad Clifton whose season was ended by a vicious hit by Sapp in that game. Tampa Bay is hard to read this year but they could very well be flat in this game after losing their last two and losing any real chance at winning their division. They have fallen hard fast and after winning the Super Bowl last year, don’t have much to play for right now except their battered pride. If Ahman Green can hang on to the ball (a big if!), he’ll have a big game against a Bucs defense that is downright horrible against the run. After his two-fumble performance on Monday night, I’d be surprised if Green isn’t holding on to the ball with two hands on every single play. Will Green get 100 yards? Likely. What does that mean? The Pack are 19-2 when Green rushes for 100 yards or more. The Packers qualify for a trend that is 38-11 against the spread (4-1 this year and 16-5 the last three years) involving teams that out-gain their opponents on the ground by a wide margin. Games between these two teams have historically been close and I expect that to be the case on Sunday. This could go either way so I’ll take the four points, a great running game and some special motivation.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Green Bay +4 and straight-up to win

HOUSTON +7 over BUFFALO (at Buffalo – 1:00PM Eastern)
Houston is up and down this year and they’re due for an “up.” This game features one of the league’s worst offenses (Buffalo – ranked 28th) versus one of its worst defenses (Houston ranked 31st). Buffalo has failed to get the ball in the end-zone in three of its last four games. QB Drew Bledsoe is having the worst year of his career partially due to the fact he lost one of his top receivers from a year ago (Peerless Price). His other main target, Eric Moulds, has been hobbled with a groin injury. This week he said “I need a rest... it’s going to be an injury that’s going to hamper me for the rest of the season.” The Buffalo running game is even worse, averaging just 86 yards per game. The Texans qualify for a trend that involves poor teams against a similarly poor opponent off a loss that is 36-10 against the spread.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Houston +7 and straight-up to win

TENNESSEE -10 over JACKSONVILLE (at Tennessee – 1:00PM Eastern)
Don’t overreact to Jacksonville’s upset victory last week. They were in a good spot against a Colts team that was in a letdown situation. The Jags are 0-4 on the road this season. This week they face what could be the best team in the league - a team that is just tied for 1st place in their division and thus, still hungry for wins. Steve McNair, the league’s top-rated QB is in-the-zone, as they say. He’s been unstoppable and should have an easy time of it on Sunday against the league’s 24th ranked pass defense. The Titans boast the league’s best run defense and should be able to bottle up Fred Taylor forcing Jacksonville into a one-dimensional offense. Having all of the weight on the shoulders of rookie QB Byron Leftwich on the road is a recipe for disaster for the Jaguars. Leftwich, a rookie, has performed like one this season. Prior to last week, he has thrown an average of 3 interceptions per game. Even in last week’s upset win, he only completed 12 passes for 179 yards. He’ll be a good QB someday but this league eats up rookie QBs. This game could get ugly early if Jacksonville can’t run the ball. Tennessee is 4-0 ATS this year at home. It’s a lot of points but this is a recipe for a blowout.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Tennessee -10

NEW ORLEANS -8.5 over ATLANTA (at New Orleans – 1:00PM Eastern)
Those of you who’ve been with me for a while know I don’t usually pick big favorites. However, I smell blowout in this game. New Orleans is a tale of two teams this year. During their first five games, their average score was 17-28. In the next four games it flipped to 26-17. They were obviously playing well before their bye week and now they bring that momentum into a game against a really bad team. And they get an extra bonus: the bye week. Byes can be helpful or hurtful, for sure, but getting an extra week of rest this late in the season should really help the Saints. The fourteen days of rest means they get defensive end and 2002 sack-leads Darren Howard back as well as starting linebacker Sedrick Hodge. WR Donte Stallworth, out the last two games, is a possibility as well. As I mentioned, the Saints entered the bye week on an up-note, winning three of their last four including a big win over Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay. You can bet they spent the bye week reinforcing the need not to collapse in the second half of the season as they did the past two years. The fact that Atlanta surprised New York last week to pull off a win will help us avoid any letdown by the Saints this week. New Orleans running back Deuce McAllister is kicking butt/taking names. He’s coming off six straight 100+ yard games and against this porous Falcons defense, he’s likely to get the 129 yards he needs to break 1000 yards in just his 10th game of the season. Teams that won the prior week as a double-digit dog (i.e. Atlanta) perform especially poor against the spread the following week in certain situations and this is one of them. The Falcons are 1-7 ATS this year while the Saints are riding a 5-1 ATS record. And let’s not let Reeve’s 200th win cloud the picture of how bad the Falcons really are: third worst in the league in offense and dead last in defense. In the first meeting between these two teams this year, the Saints cruised to a 45-17 victory on the road. They should be able to do something similar this week, off a week of rest, focused, and at home.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take New Orleans -8.5

NEW YORK JETS +6 over INDIANAPOLIS (at Indianapolis – 4:05PM Eastern)
As predicted last week, Indianapolis fell as a six point favorite to the Jaguars. They may face a similar fate again this week. The best receiver in the game, Indy’s Marvin Harrison is listed as doubtful this game. Even without this major hit, Indianapolis’ offense, which looked unstoppable early in the season, is showing cracks. “Something wasn’t right” Harrison said about their offensive performance last week. There is dissention in the ranks as both Harrison and Edgerrin James have started publicly complaining about their role in the offense. The Colts have squandered two half-time leads out of their last four games. On the other side of the ball, I think this could be a breakout game for Jets QB Chad Pennington. He definitely had some rust to shake off after missing most of the first half of the season. But he’s showing signs that he may be getting his groove back. Last week Pennington engineered an impressive fourth quarter/overtime comeback victory over Oakland. The week before that, he rallied his team from a 2 TD deficit only to lose the game after kicker Doug Brien missed what should have been an easy game-winning field goal. It looks like the Jets could be getting back two key defensive starters in the secondary, Donnie Abraham and Jon McGraw (both listed as questionable). The Jets are up-and-coming while the Colts are headed in the opposite direction. Take the points.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take the Jets +6 and straight-up to win

OAKLAND +4.5 over MINNESOTA (at Oakland – 4:15PM Eastern)
After a 6-0 start, the Vikings have lost three straight. I went against them the past two weeks as 5.5 and 4.5 point favorites and yes, ladies and gentlemen, I’m going for the hat trick. Once again the Vikings are favored and once again I predict they will fall to a worse team. It is definitely crisis-time in Minnesota. As I mentioned last week, the Vikings were doubting themselves after losing to the Giants and Green Bay. Then they go and get blown out by the hapless Chargers! They are reeling, my friends. Their defense is allowing over 450 yards and 34 points per game over the last three games. And Randy Moss seems to be sulking a bit. If you watched the game last week you saw, as I did, at least four key plays where he just didn’t try. I don’t care how good you are. If, as a highly paid professional, you give up on catchable pass because it wasn’t thrown to your liking, you should be benched. It’s absolutely ridiculous! Now, you’re saying – “but this is Oakland – they suck!” Yes, they have had a rough year. But, even the doormats surprise you once in a while in the NFL. Rick Mirer now has two games under his belt and I expect him to have a decent game this week. The Raiders should also have some success on the ground. I think they’ll be able to keep this one close. The Raiders haven’t covered a spread this year and I don’t think that can continue forever.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take Oakland +4.5 and straight-up to win

Good luck!

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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no guarantees and cannot be held responsible for any actions taken by newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you wager, do so only through legal channels. Good luck!

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