Wunderdog
NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions
2003
Weekly NFL Picks
Regular
Season Week 10
Week
9 was a bounce-back week for the Dog. I went 4-2 and
my Matchup Power Ratings were 9-3-1.
I won with free pick Green Bay +4.5 over Minnesota and
also with Detroit and Arizona (both outright winners at
+3) and Seattle at -4.5. My two losers, Tampa Bay and the
Jets, committed 9 combined turnovers (not exactly a winning
formula). Some of you pushed with Jets as the line moved
from +2.5 to +3 by game-time. I’m now at +118 units
for the year.
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- This Week’s Matchup Power Ratings -
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UNDERRATED / BY / OVERRATED
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ARI 7.2 PIT
NYG 6.1 ATL
GB 6.0 PHI
DAL 4.8 BUF
CLE 3.9 KC
SEA 3.7 WAS
CAR 3.4 TB
CHI 2.8 DET
CIN 2.8 HOU
IND 2.4 JAC
NYJ 1.4 OAK
SD 1.3 MIN
MIA 0.7 TEN
BAL 0.1 STL
As a reminder,
the Matchup Power Ratings highlight for you the games
in which the lines-makers have set the line
incorrectly, BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE
TEAMS. To estimate the correct STATISTICAL line for the
game, simply subtract the number above from the underrated
team’s line. REMEMBER: These ratings DO NOT account
for injuries, motivation, or historical trends. Rather,
they are 100% driven by the statistical performances of
the two teams season-to-date. As a result, I often play
against the ratings due to these other very important factors.
On to this week's selections...
Arizona +7.5 over PITTSBURGH (1:00PM Eastern)
Here we have a 2-6 Steelers team that has lost their last
five straight by an average score of 15 to 27 versus
a confident Arizona club on a roll. Yet, Pitt is favored
by over a touchdown? I love it! My Matchup Power Ratings
tell us that this line is WAY OFF (should be closer to
a pick ‘em). Arizona’s still not getting
any respect after beating two good teams. They’ve
done it the old fashioned way – running the ball
and solid defense. In the last two games against San
Francisco and Cincinnati, the Cards have rushed the ball
for 191 yards per game while holding their opponents
to just 77. That’s a recipe for success. And San
Francisco was 3rd in the league in rushing yards per
game up that point! Pittsburgh enters this game averaging
just 89 per game on the ground, ranked 29th in the league.
I expect Pittsburgh to continue to have troubles on the
ground, forcing them into a one-dimensional offense.
Pittsburgh’s defense is the only thing clicking,
ranked 2nd in the league. In what should be a defensive
battle, give me the team with the much better running
game and the positive, confident attitude and 7.5 points
any day. On top of that, the Steelers are 3-11 against
the spread in their last 14 as home favorites.
PLAYS: Take Arizona +7.5 and straight-up to win
Jacksonville +6 over Indianapolis (at Jacksonville - 1:00PM
Eastern)
7-1 against 1-7. Should be a blowout, right? While it’s
hard to put my finger (paw) on why, I have a feeling it
won’t be. Indianapolis really couldn’t be playing
any better. Last week they reached their 2003 pinnacle
by beating heated rival Miami on the road. They’re
winning by an average of 11 points per game and based on
stats alone, this spread should probably be about 8 or
9 points (give Jacksonville 3 for home-field). But, statistics
alone do not decide football games. Indianapolis is due
for a fall - overdue. I’ve said it before: it is
extremely difficult for teams to perform at the very top
of their game for many weeks on end. At some point, they
stop to take a breath and suffer a letdown. What better
time to take a breath than after last week’s high-impact
emotional game when you’re facing a 1-7 laugher this
week? The Colts seem to have slipped into believing their
own press. The comments of players and coaches this week
seem to imply “yeah, we’re great and we know
it.” Jacksonville is a team that has found ways to
lose games they could have won. Their defense is actually
pretty good (ranked 9th in the league). Last week they
held league-leading running back Jamal Lewis to just 68
yards and out-gained the Ravens 320-259 yards. But, they
found a way to lose as they have done many times this year.
At some point, Jacksonville will put together a good game
and surprise someone. I believe this is the week.
PLAYS: Take Jacksonville +6 and straight-up to win
Seattle -3 over Washington (at Washington - 1:00PM Eastern)
Last week I picked the Lions to upset the Raiders largely
because Oakland was in the midst of major turmoil. The
team was losing and losing bad. And worse yet, the players
had lost confidence in their coach. Sound familiar? Washington
is in big trouble. Spurrier is getting hammered from all
angles: the media, his players, and his owner. And for
good reason. He hasn’t prepared his team to win games
and he hasn’t adjusted in obvious ways. He’s
on his way out and my guess is he knows it and at least
privately admits it. As I said last week in the Oakland
situation, no good can come out of this situation. His
players aren’t putting forth a full effort this week.
In fact, subconsciously they may be holding back in an
effort to speed his demise. In comes a team that is brimming
with confidence and one that remains hungry. Seattle is
6-2 but both losses have come on the road. They will be
focused on taking advantage of a good situation to turn
around their road woes this week. The recipe for Seattle
is simple – rush Patrick Ramsey. Spurrier’s “max
protect” scheme allowed 4 sacks last week and forced
Ramsey out of the game twice with injuries. Based on the
stats, I think Seattle should be closer to a touchdown
favorite here (my Matchup Power Ratings have Seattle a
6.7 point favorite). I see no reason why this shouldn’t
be trusted and the turmoil in DC is just icing on the cake.
PLAYS: Take Seattle -3
San Diego +5.5 over Minnesota (at San Diego - 4:05PM Eastern)
Last week I told you the Pack would upset the Vikings.
No way they will lose three straight, right? Especially
against a doormat like San Diego, right? It’s not
clear who’ll start at QB for the Chargers but it
may not matter. Minnesota’s defense has been torched
for over 450 yards each of the last two weeks. The Giants
passed for 375 against them and Green Bay ran up 261 yards
on the ground! The Vikings are ranked 29th in the league
in total defense. And, after two straight losses, are starting
to doubt themselves whether they admit it publicly or not.
San Diego running back LaDainian Tomlinson could have a
huge day against the Vikings. If San Diego sticks to a
game plan that includes lots of Tomlinson with smart simple
play from Brees or Flutie, they’ll have a good chance
to pull the upset. Finally, ton’t underestimate the
impact of San Diego playing their first home game following
the recent wildfires. Emotions will be high for the local
team and their fans, giving them an added reason to win.
PLAYS: Take San Diego +5.5 and straight-up to win
Philadelphia +4.5 over Green Bay (at Green Bay - Monday
Night game)
Two teams that have found some momentum tangle on Monday
night. Last week Green Bay played way over their heads
in what was their most important game of the year. It was
a must-win and the Pack played that way. I don’t
think they’ll be able to put another performance
like that together tonight against a resurgent Eagles club.
Things might just be coming together for the Eagles. After
a half-season of turmoil, there is some light at the end
of the tunnel for the Birds. It’s hard to say whether
McNabb is truly back to Pro Bowl form but since he has
removed the protective wrapping from his injured thumb
two weeks ago, he’s been playing much, much better.
If McNabb can continue to play well to compliment the league’s
8th best rushing attack, Philadelphia will win a lot of
games in the second half of the season. This week they’re
facing the league’s 30th ranked defense in the Packers
(allowing 34 points per game over the last three games).
The Eagle’s defense, on the other hand, has been
very good against the run but horrendous against the pass.
That appears to be changing however, as the defense seems
to finally be adjusting to the early season losses of several
key defensive starters. Over the last three games, Philadelphia
has held opponents to 200 yards passing per game (versus
250 in the first five). And over that same stretch, they’ve
held opponents to just 14 points per game. Finally, there’s
a small chance that Pro Bowl corner Bobby Taylor and/or
All-Pro safety Brian Dawkins will be back for this game.
Philadelphia under Andy Reid is 27-12 ATS in their last
39 on the road (3-1 this year) and 25-11 ATS as a dog (2-1
in 2003). Philly qualifies for a historical trend that
involves road dogs versus teams allowing lots of points
for two straight games that is 75-39 ATS (11-4 in the last
15).
PLAYS: Take Philadelphia +4.5 and straight-up to win
Good luck!
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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible
for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no guarantees
and cannot be held responsible for any actions taken by
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