Wunderdog
NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions
2003
Weekly NFL Picks
Regular
Season
Week 1
Welcome to the 2003 Week 1 Wunderdog
Full Subscriber NFL Newsletter
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Are You Ready for Some Football?!?
Yeah baby – bring on the NFL! I Can smell the grass
and sweat. Fire up the NFL Sunday Ticket, grab a cold one
and a bag of chips and lean back. It’s going to be
a great season.
In the final week of the preseason, I went 3-2, winning
with Arizona, Washington and Cleveland and losing with
Baltimore and San Fran. For the preseason, I ended up 9-6
(60%) and +240 units. I expect to maintain this 60%+ clip
all season long.
On an even better note, 50% of the underdogs I picked
won straight up. As I have mentioned in past newsletters,
if you can do about 33%+ on picking dogs straight up, you
are going to win a lot of money. I will point out the games
this year that I feel are great money-line plays.
Remember, you can track my picks all year long here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/2003.html.
My picks and record are independently tracked here: http://www.freesportsmonitor.com/Details.php3?uid=1303.
The theme this week is Overreaction. Read on.
This Week’s
Matchup Power Ratings
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As a reminder, these ratings highlight for you the games
in which the lines-makers have set the line incorrectly,
BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TEAMS. This
can be for good reasons (i.e. injuries) or bad reasons
(the public’s perception is way off). The underrated
team is the one the statistics point to as the play. Be
aware that these ratings are 100% statistically driven
and do not account for other important handicapping elements
such as motivation, injuries, and situational trends. There
are times I actually play against the ratings due to the
other factors.
These numbers represent how far off I believe the line
to be strictly based on statistics.
ATL 6.6 over DAL (ATL is a 2pt dog but should be a 4.6pt
favorite)
OAK 5.3 over TEN
NYJ 3.9 over WAS
ARI 3.9 over DET
JAC 3.5 over CAR
NO 3.5 over SEA
HOU 3.1 over MIA
TB 2.2 over PHI
CHI 1.9 over SF
NYG 1.5 over STL
BAL 1.3 over PIT
SD 1.2 over KC
NE 1.1 over BUF
Being game 1, these are based on last year stats so beware.
For example, one reason the Atlanta line is so far off
the statistics is that the statistics were based on Michael
Vick being in the game.
On to this week's selections...
I just love public overreaction...
JACKSONVILLE +3.5 OVER CAROLINA
Jacksonville has had some turmoil in the preseason. Everyone’s
writing off Mark Brunell for dead (OVERREACTION). Think
he cares? He’s a football player – off course
he cares! He is getting old and probably can’t last
16 games but this is game one. He’ll be fresh and
fired up. Carolina is expected to win. They can’t
help but look ahead to next week’s matchup against
Tampa Bay. Not only is it an important divisional matchup
but it’s against the defending Super Bowl champs.
Take the Jags in the upset.
HOUSTON +14 OVER MIAMI
Fourteen points? That’s a lot but it almost seems
reasonable. Houston is coming off a winless preseason.
They were (mostly) horrible last year. They are on the
road against a Super Bowl contender. But it’s too
much (OVERREACTION). Away teams and dogs that go winless
in the preseason do very well against the spread early
on in the regular season. The public writes them off a
bit too much. How can Miami stay focused for this game?
They are supposed to win by two touchdowns. The Fish will
be looking ahead to next week’s divisional matchup
against heated rival Jets.
ATLANTA +2 OVER DALLAS
This one’s a bit tough. Atlanta was a playoff team
last year while Dallas sucked. Things have changed a bit,
which explains why Atlanta is getting points in this one.
Mike Vick is out in Atlanta and the legendary Bill Parcells
has landed in Dallas. If Vick was playing, Atlanta would
be a field-goal favorite (OVERREACTION). Dogs and visiting
teams that don’t win in the preseason are usually
excellent bets (70%+ ATS) in week one. Despite Parcell’s
presence, which will make a huge difference this year,
I think Atlanta still has too much for Dallas to overcome.
Remember, Parcells doesn’t usually do his real magic
until season two. Atlanta should win this one outright.
ARIZONA +4 OVER DETROIT
Arizona lost Jake Plummer and picked up Emmitt Smith. How
can this be bad? Plummer is a horrendously average quarterback
that makes more mistakes than any professional should
(at least he did in Arizona). Emmitt, while not in his
prime, will add leadership and a calming influence to
this team. Yes, Arizona also lost David Boston (OVERREACTION)
but they’ll find a way to get it done this week.
As seems to be a theme this week, Detroit has a big divisional
game next week and won’t be focusing on this game
as much as they should. Take the cards and the points.
Good luck!
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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible
for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no guarantees
and cannot be held responsible for any actions taken by
newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you wager, do so
only through legal channels. Good luck!
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