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Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions 2002 Weekly NFL Picks Post
Season Wildcard Welcome to the 2002 Wildcard Wunderdog Paid Subscription NFL Newsletter Week 17 was a good one at 2-1. Cleveland and St. Louis both won against the spread and straight-up as underdogs. My third pick, Houston, lost by 10 at +8.5 as their offense couldn’t muster more than 3 points to complement a great defensive effort, holding the Titans to just 13 points. For the season, I am now a profitable 43-33, with 10 winning weeks out of 16. It’s time for the playoffs! Last week, I described some of my guiding philosophies regarding the playoffs: 1. THE CREAM
RISES TO THE TOP – The best teams play
like the best teams in January. My handicapping system for the playoffs takes into account statistics, power ratings and trends. I utilize two dozen very high-performing trends that average 70% against-the-spread. Of these, nine are 80%+. Over the past two years, I have gone 11-7-1 during the playoffs with my final selections. I tend to do better as the playoffs progress as I am 7-3-1 following the Wildcard weekend. My picks the last two years: WILDCARD (4-4): SEMI-FINALS (4-2-1): FINALS (1-1): SUPER BOWL (2-0):
The 2002 Wilcard Matchup Power Ratings are posted. As a reminder, these ratings highlight for you the games in which the lines-makers have set the line incorrectly, BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TEAMS. This can be for good reasons (i.e. injuries) or bad reasons (the public’s perception is way off). The underrated team is the one the statistics point to as the play. Be aware that these ratings are statistically driven and do not account for other important handicapping elements such as motivation, injuries, and situational trends. There are times I actually play against the ratings due to the other factors.
INDIANAPOLIS +6 AT NY JETS Indianapolis head coach Tony Dungy is just horrible in playoffs (2-4) and 0-4 on the road. QB Peyton Manning has a well-deserved reputation as someone who has not stepped up in big games. He couldn’t win them in college and he is 0-2 in NFL playoff games. On the other side of the ball, Jets QB Chad Pennington is En Fuego (“On Fire” for my Spanish-speaking challenged readers out there). Since taking over for Vinny earlier this season, he has completed 69% of his passes and thrown 22 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions. The Jets also have a strong running game to complement Pennington. Curtis Martin racked up 1,094 yards and scored seven touchdowns this year. Over the course of the entire season, the Colts are giving up 21.8 points per game while the Jets are giving up 22.4. But wait a minute… Jets coach Herman Edwards changed six defensive starters at the beginning of the season. It took about six weeks for those changes to start benefiting the team. From week six on, the Jets are giving up less than 16 points per game! The Colts rely on the passing game. They pass a lot (58% of the time). Colts’ running back Edgerrin James’ cockiness caught up to him this year. His hold-out, which he predicted would have absolutely no effect on his game, seems to have caused some problems. James didn’t reach 1000 yards, had only two touchdowns and had no runs over 20 yards. Indianapolis ranks 26th in the league in rushing and averages just 3.6 yards per carry. Peyton Manning will have to win this one and I think he is just too inconsistent. The Jets are on a roll and brimming with confidence after winning 7 of their last 9 including an impressive trouncing of Green Bay last week in a game that Green Bay desperately wanted. Yes, the spread in this game is inflated following that game (should probably be closer to 3 or 4) but I don’t think it will matter. The Colts have underperformed expectations this year as they are only 38% ATS this year, while the Jets are 60%. As far as trends go, New York qualifies for a situation involving home teams on grass that is 19-5 ATS including 6-1 the last two years. Indianapolis does qualify for a couple of very high-percentage trends involving teams that ended the season poorly SU and ATS. These two trends combine for 41-10 ATS (6-0 the last two years). Despite these trends for Indianapolis, I think New York, playing at home, is just too strong.
The Falcons, who somewhat lucked in to the playoffs due to a New Orleans collapse against the Panthers, have their issues. Their red zone offense is weak. They scored touchdowns less than half of the time they reached the opponents 20-yard line and that ain’t good for a playoff team. Their troubles were evident last week when Warrick Dunn was stopped twice on the 1-inch line at the end of the Browns game. Atlanta does have a few things going for them. Michael Vick is the most obvious one. A few teams (i.e. Tampa Bay, Cleveland) have shown a recipe for containing Vick (push him to his right, etc). The question is whether Green Bay, who is banged up, can deliver on that recipe.They may be without three key players: safety Darren Sharper, WR Donald Driver and defensive tackle Gilbert Brown. Atlanta has a better ground game than Green Bay when you factor in Vick (150 yards per game vs. 121 for Green Bay). Also, playoff teams that have not been in the playoffs recently (Atlanta) are 86% ATS. Finally, teams that mounted multiple 20+ point blow-outs during the year (Atlanta had 4) usually do very well in the playoffs. Brett Favre has been up and down this year. I am not sure which Favre will show up for this game. Chances are he will be able to take advantage of a poor Atlanta passing defense (giving up 7.0 yards per pass – worst of the teams playing this weekend) but I am not sure Green Bay will be able to cover the number. Bottom line is that this game is too hard to call and
I will be passing on it. CLEVELAND +8 AT PITTSBURGH As I mentioned in last week’s newsletter, the Browns under Butch Davis have had 18 of 32 games decided in the final minute. If that trend plays out here, Cleveland will cover in this game. Both games between these two clubs this year were decided by three points. The Browns won five of their last seven games to squeak into the playoffs after a 4-5 start. Cleveland will be starting QB Kelly Holcomb who didn’t look great last week but managed to pull out an important victory. He also played well at the beginning of the year and comes into this game with a healthy 92.9 QB rating which dwarfs starting QB Tim Couch’s 76.8 rating. It is even better than his opponent, Pittsburgh’s Tommy Maddox, with a rating of 85.2! By Sunday I believe Holcomb will have shaken off the rust that was evident last week. I have made a big deal about home field advantage in the playoffs. But the Browns are an incredible 6-2 on the road this year (the two losses came against two playoff teams - Tampa Bay and this Pittsburgh squad). Eight points is a lot. In their seven losses this season, Cleveland’s average loss was by only 5.4 points and they have lost only one game this year by more than 7 points. Despite the fact that my power ratings tell us Cleveland is underrated here, I am still a bit nervous about picking the Browns. Pittsburgh is far superior on the ground both offensively and defensively. The Steelers averaged 131 ypg on the ground and gave up only 86 per game while Cleveland averaged only 102 ypg offensively and gave up 130 per game. These stats are somewhat mitigated by the fact that both teams are about the same in yards per rush (4.0 for Cleveland vs. 4.1 for Pittsburgh). The point is that Cleveland can have success on the ground if they stay committed to the running game as they have recently with William Green who is averaging 100+ yards per game in the second half of the season. Underdogs of 7+ points in their first playoff game have done pretty well against the spread and, as mentioned above regarding Atlanta, “new” teams in the playoffs fight really hard and are 86% against the spread in their first game. I am going to make Cleveland a pick in this one, expecting them to keep it under a touchdown.
There are numerous symptoms of problems with San Francisco. The Niners allowed more points per game this season (21.9) than any other playoff team. Their record against winning teams this year: a dismal 2-4. And, they are allowing opponents to convert 47% of the time on third downs! San Francisco’s struggling defense will have problems against a New York offense that is clicking since head coach Jim Fassel took over play calling duties. On pass plays, New York has three excellent threats in Amani Toomer, Tiki Barber, and potential rookie of the year Jeremy Shockey. In addition to the pass threat, Barber put up nearly 1,400 yards on the ground this year (including over 200 against the league’s best defense last week). The 49ers are only favored by 3.5 in this game because they are “The 49ers.” But make no mistake about it… This is not the same great playoff team that has featured Montana, Rice, Young, and Lott. This team has one (maybe two) stars surrounded by a bunch of mediocre talent. New York is justifiably confident they can contain San Francisco’s biggest threat – Terrell Owens. Their aggressive cornerback play limited him to just four receptions in their earlier meeting this year. I am nervous about New York’s difficulty in the red zone and their tendency to turn the ball over. Both Barber and QB Kerry Collins are prone to fumbling (Barber coughed it up four times last week). New York averaged -.1 turnovers per game while San Francisco was +.6 on the season. Turnovers will be key in this game. In the end, the stats favor New York. Despite San Francisco averaging more points (22.9) than the Giants (20) over the course of the season, the G-men are averaging nearly 27 points per game since Fassel took over the offense. On defense, the Giants only give up 17.4 per game versus the playoff-team high 21.9 mentioned early allowed by the 49ers. New York averages an excellent 7.5 yards per pass attempt versus only 6.3 for San Francisco. The Giants are better at limiting big plays while San Francisco is better at making them. San Francisco does have a better ground game but I don’t think it will be enough against the Giants. Take the Giants and the points.
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