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Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions 2002 Weekly NFL Picks Post
Season SuperBowl Welcome to the 2003 Wunderdog Super Bowl Paid Subscription Newsletter I went 1-1 last week with the correct call on Oakland (easy one) and the wrong call on Philly/Tampa Bay. I’ve gotta hand it to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden. They outplayed and out-coached Philadelphia. I am disappointed Philadelphia and Donovan McNabb, in particular, didn’t put forth a better showing but I think Tampa Bay wanted it more. For the season, I am 50-35, with 12 winning weeks out of 18. On to this week’s power ratings and selection… The 2002 Super Bowl Matchup Power Ratings are posted. As a reminder, these ratings highlight for you the games in which the lines-makers have set the line incorrectly, BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TEAMS. This can be for good reasons (i.e. injuries) or bad reasons (the public’s perception is way off). The underrated team is the one the statistics point to as the play. Be aware that these ratings are statistically driven and do not account for other important handicapping elements such as motivation, injuries, and situational trends. There are times I actually play against the ratings due to the other factors.
TAMPA BAY +3.5 VS. OAKLAND I’ll break my analysis down into four key areas: Offense, Defense, Special Teams and Intangibles. Then we’ll look at the specifics of this particular matchup. - OFFENSE - The Raider offense has been nearly unstoppable. Oakland averaged 28.1 points per game (second only to Kansas City’s 29.2) during the regular season and put up 30 against the Jets and 41 against Tennessee in the playoffs. Tampa Bay averaged 21.6 points per game (and 23.1 in games where Brad Johnson started) during the regular season but has picked things up in the playoffs, scoring an average of 29 points per game in its two playoff games against one mediocre defense (San Francisco) and one great one (Philadelphia). Oakland has a better running game (111ypg, 4.3ypc) than Tampa (97ypg, 3.8ypc) and banged in 21 rushing TDs to only 6 (league worst) for Tampa Bay. Oakland’s widely heralded passing game was second to none this year. They averaged 7.6 yards per pass versus 6.5 for the Bucs. Obviously Oakland has the offensive advantage.
Tampa Bay’s defense is the best in the league in just about every category. They allowed a league-low 12.3 points per game during the regular season (and just 8 ppg in the playoffs) versus 18.6 points per game allowed by the Raiders (17 ppg in the playoffs). Both of these defenses are excellent against the rush at 3.8 yards per carry allowed. Oakland actually has the slight edge in rushing defense, allowing just 91ypg versus 97ypg for Tampa Bay. However, scoring on the ground (as well as through the air) is much tougher against the Buccaneers as they allowed just 8 rushing TDs versus 14 allowed by Oakland. Tampa Bay has the league’s top pass defense, allowing an extremely stingy 5.5 yards per pass attempt and just 10 passing TDs all season versus 6.6ypp for the Raiders and 21 TDs allowed. The Bucs recorded 31 interceptions (league-high) and 43 sacks. Oakland matched TB’s sack total of 43 but managed 10 fewer interceptions (21). The big passing stat is this one: Tampa’s opponents this year averaged an amazingly low 48.4 QB rating while Oakland’s opponents average a 77.3 rating. I can’t wait to see how league MVP Rich Gannon does against this defense. Tampa Bay holds opponents to 33.6% on third-down conversions versus 38.3% for Oakland’s defense. What’s obvious is that Tampa Bay’s biggest strength is that they keep teams out of the end zone. The Bucs allowed a league-low 18 touchdowns or just over one per game during the regular season. And, they allowed just 4.8 points per 100 yards allowed which is by far the best in the NFL this year. All of this defensive talk raises the following question: How does this Tampa Bay defense stack up to the most dominating defense in recent Super Bowl history? Let’s compare this year’s Bucs to the 2001 Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore was significantly better against the run (60.6 ypg, 2.7ypc, 5 TD) while this Bucs squad is better versus the pass (Baltimore averaged 187ypg, 11 TDs). The Ravens allowed just 10.3 points per game in 2000, nearly 20% better than Tampa Bay’s defense. They held opponents to 34.1% on third downs. Surprisingly, the Ravens had only 35 sacks and 23 interceptions, giving this Tampa Bay team the edge on big plays. It seems to me that despite the effectiveness of this Tampa Bay defense, the 2000/01 Ravens were better. They won the Super Bowl that year against a team (NYG) with a much worse offense than Oakland’s. Obviously the Bucs have the advantage when it comes to defense, but Oakland is a solid defensive team as well and very good against the run.
Both Martin Gramatica and Sebastian Janikowski scored 128 points this year (tied for 4th best in the league) with Gramatica just a bit more accurate (82% vs. 79%) and, I think, more consistent. I give a very slight edge to Tampa Bay in the Field Goal category. I call these two teams about even on Special Teams. - INTANGIBLES - Coaching: Tampa Bay has the X-factor: Jon Gruden. This guy impresses the hell out of me. He’s a natural, doing the one job in the world he should be doing. How many of us can say that? He was able to get this Tampa Bay team over the hump this year by beating a statistically better Philadelphia team on the road in cold weather. He out-coached Andy Reid and going against him scares me. Penalty Yards: Tampa Bay has a big edge in penalty yards: 789 to 1094. Oakland had the second highest number of penalty yards this year. In a close game, this could be a factor. Power Ratings: My power ratings say Tampa Bay is underrated in this game and should probably be around a one point underdog.
…When
Oakland has the Ball: …When
Tampa Bay has the Ball: I was interested to look back at a couple of scenarios: How did Oakland do offensively this year vs. the league’s top defenses? How did Tampa Bay do defensively against top offenses this year? Maybe this information will lend insight into how this classic matchup will unfold. First let’s look at Oakland’s offense. It is interesting to note that Oakland didn’t play very many good/great defenses this year. I looked at how Oakland performed against Top 10 defenses in Denver (2 games), Miami, and Tennessee (in the playoffs - I ignored their week 3 matchup when Tennessee was playing horrible defense). In these four games, Oakland’s offense didn’t rack up as many yards as normal but scored plenty of points. Good defenses didn’t seem to faze them much. The one regular season game they played against a Top 5 defense (Miami), they scored just 17 points, managed only 260 yards and lost the game. They did however score 41 points while amassing 375 yards against a very good defensive team in Tennessee last week. How good was Tennessee’s defense? The Titan D allowed just 15 points per game in their last eleven regular season contests. That is almost as good as Tampa Bay who averaged 13 points per game against over the same span. Here is the breakdown of how Oakland fared against various defenses: Oakland offense versus Top 5 defenses: 318 yards / 29
points per game Conclusion: Oakland didn’t play a lot of great defenses which makes this analysis difficult. They really struggled versus Miami but creamed Tennessee last week. On average, their performance didn’t drop off much versus better defensive teams. In contrast, Tampa Bay played against a lot of the league’s best offenses this year. I looked at games against New Orleans (2 games), Atlanta (2 games), Philadelphia (2 games), Minnesota, Green Bay and Pittsburgh. In these games versus Top 10 offenses, Tampa’s defense performed measurably worse than it did against weaker offensive teams. Also, in its six games against Top 5 offenses in yards or points (Minnesota, Pittsburgh. New Orleans, Philadelphia), Tampa’s defense did even worse. Granted, this defense still looked relatively good against top offenses but they didn’t look like the immovable brick-wall that we know they can be. Take a look at the numbers: Tampa Bay defense versus all offenses: 253 yards allowed
/ 12.3 points per game Conclusion: We can see that while still very good, Tampa Bay’s defense is significantly less effective against great offensive teams. This leads me to believe they won’t completely shut down Oakland’s high-powered game. OK, so maybe Oakland will manage some points. But how many points we can expect Tampa Bay to put up? To answer this question, we can look at how they performed against defenses similar to Oakland’s (Oakland was ranked 11th in yards per game allowed and 6th in points per game allowed). In games against similar teams, Tampa Bay scored an average of 23.9 points per game which is slightly better than their overall average and very respectable. We should also look at how Oakland’s defense performed versus teams offensively similar to Tampa Bay (ranked 24th in yards per game and 13th in points per game with B. Johnson playing). In these games, Oakland allowed an average of 20.1 points per game. The above stats would predict a score of Oakland 24, Tampa Bay 22. You can see why I started this analysis by saying this is a very tough one to call. So what does all of this mean? As I said in my analysis of the Pittsburgh / Tennessee Semi-Finals game and the Tampa Bay / Philadelphia game last week, this game could go either way and will probably come down to turnovers or big plays, which are very hard to predict. Unfortunately there aren’t any major hidden advantages and Vegas seems to have set the line about right. If you prefer to take the Dog in these types of close situations, Tampa wouldn’t be a bad pick. My Matchup Power Ratings (which have been 6-0 this year in the playoffs when one team has a 2+ point advantage) support this pick and Gruden is tough to bet against. Also, if you are a believer that Defense wins championships, Tampa is your team! However, if you believe that offense wins championships a la St. Louis’ Greatest Show on Turf two years back, you gotta love Oakland. If you feel that experience and timing plays a big role, Oakland is your team. It is now or never for them and everything is falling into place. Me, I am going with Oakland. I think they are a more balanced team with a very solid defense and one of the best offenses we have seen in a while. I think things need to go close to perfect for Tampa to win. That is quite possible with this team, but if Brad Johnson gets hurt, it’s all over. If Johnson has a bad day, it will be a long one for Tampa Bay. I think Oakland will play a great game, unlike an Eagles team that laid down last week. And, who would you rather be on in the 4th quarter if your team needs a score to win? I typically lean towards the favorite in the playoffs and Super Bowl unless there is something really compelling telling me the dog will cover (to see why, check out my Playoffs philosophy here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/postseason.html).Unlike last year with the Pats, there isn’t an overwhelming reason to take Tampa Bay that isn’t at least overcome by the reasons I like Oakland. Oakland 27 Good luck! ---------------------------------------------------------
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