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Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions 2002 Weekly NFL Picks Post
Season Semi-Finals Welcome to the 2002 Semi-Finals Wunderdog Paid Subscription NFL Newsletter Week 18 was tremendous at 3-0! I was right on the New York Jets, as my subscribers read about an impending Colts flop (as usual) in the playoffs and about a trend favoring the Jets that was 19-5 and 6-1 the last two seasons. I correctly predicted a New York Giants cover, highlighting San Francisco’s terrible record against winning teams and their troubles on third-down this year. I also pointed out the fact that the Giants’ offense was much better than San Francisco’s since Jim Fassel took over play calling. Finally, I called for huge underdog Cleveland to cover. I predicted backup QB Kelley Holcomb would shake off his week 17 rust and play well, as evidenced by his quarterback rating which was much better than Tim Couch’s or Tommy Maddox’s going into the game! I also pointed out the fact that Cleveland is one of the league’s best teams on the road (6-2) and that this game would be much closer than the 8 point spread (Cleveland’s average loss was in 2002 was by only 5.4 points and they lost only one game by more than 7 points all season). For the season, I am now a very profitable 46-33, with 11 winning weeks out of 17. On to this week’s power ratings and selections… The 2002 Semi-Finals Matchup Power Ratings are posted. As a reminder, these ratings highlight for you the games in which the lines-makers have set the line incorrectly, BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TEAMS. This can be for good reasons (i.e. injuries) or bad reasons (the public’s perception is way off). The underrated team is the one the statistics point to as the play. Be aware that these ratings are statistically driven and do not account for other important handicapping elements such as motivation, injuries, and situational trends. There are times I actually play against the ratings due to the other factors.
PITTSBURGH +4 AT TENNESSEE The last matchup between these two teams was one of Pittsburgh’s and Tommy Maddox’s worst performances. Tennessee won the game and held Maddox to 194 yards on 50% passing and one TD to three picks before knocking him out of the game. Tennessee had a comfortable 31-7 lead in the fourth quarter of that game. Edge: Titans. How about injuries? The bye week will undoubtedly help ailing Titans Steve McNair and Eddie George. The Steelers are without safety Mike Logan, lost last game to a knee injury. Pittsburgh might have DB Chad Scott back for this game but could be without impact LB Kendrell Bell. Bell is a crucial part of that stingy Steelers run defense. If he can’t go full speed, it will have a big impact. Edge: Titans.
Can anyone match up against the league’s best receiver threesome? If anyone can, it is Tennessee CB Samari Rolle. This guy is exuberant and cocky and backs it up with great aggressive play. You need someone with the moxie and pride of Rolle to step up to this challenge. On the other side of the ball, McNair has to be foaming at the mouth after watching Kelly Holcomb light up the Steelers’ secondary for 429 yards and three touchdowns last week. While most teams give up on the run against Pittsburgh, I believe Tennessee will not. In their first meeting this year, Tennessee ran the ball 40 times which led to 36 minutes of possession. Even though they only got 3 yards per carry, they controlled the game. As I said, this game is a close call. It may just come down to big plays, where Tennessee has the edge. They get ‘em, while the Steelers tend to allow ‘em. One measure of big plays is points per yard. You want this number to be high for your offense and low for your defense. Tennessee scores more points per yard gained than Pittsburgh and the Steelers allows more points per yard than any other team in this year’s playoffs (including the four that exited last week). Just look at what Cleveland did to Pittsburgh last week. Kelly Holcomb riddled the Steelers with deep passes on the outside all day long. Dennis Northcutt scored on two long pass plays and if he didn’t drop a 3rd and 12 pass in the bread basket in the fourth quarter, Cleveland would be playing this weekend and Pittsburgh players would be at home on the couch. Tennessee has home field advantage and extra week of rest. Pittsburgh meanwhile, is coming off just six days of rest. And I give the coaching edge to Tennessee. Jeff Fisher and his team know how to win in the playoffs. They were one foot away from being crowned 2000 Super Bowl champions. Bill Cowher, although an excellent coach, is 0-2 in road playoff games with the Steelers. Close call but I am going with the Titans.
Philadelphia is flat out tough. They were the most impressive team this year, in my opinion. They are incredibly well-rounded. How else can you explain a team winning five of six (SU and ATS) after losing a player who accounted for 65% of his team’s offense?!? That’s like the Bulls winning 83% of their games after Jordan left. Home field advantage really kicks in from here on-out. Why more so than in the Wildcard round? In the wildcard round, the home team gets no more rest than their opponent. They are just as banged up and tired as the visitors. And, they weren’t good enough to get a first-round bye. In the semi-finals, the home team is the cream of the crop – one of the four best in the entire league in the regular season! And, they have had an additional week of rest at the most critical of times. Philadelphia is one of the worst places in the league to play. The weather is lousy, the stadium sucks and the fans are bastards (and proud of it!). Atlanta won on the road in Green Bay, but they won’t be able to duplicate that feat at Veterans Stadium. In its last three postseason games at the Vet, the Eagles have won by an average of 20.3 points. Honestly, I am a bit nervous at having McNabb back for his first game. However, would I rather have AJ Feeley or Koy Detmer? Let’s see. Before his injury, McNabb was having a pro-bowl year with 2,289 yards passing, 460 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns in just 10 games. I’m glad McNabb is playing. He is cool and will be able to shake off any rust by the second series. Besides, who needs offense when you have the Philly defense? Sure Michael Vick engineered an impressive road playoff victory last week. But this is not an average defense like Green Bay’s. This is the Philadelphia Eagles defense which had a league high 56 sacks! The last time Vick faced a defense like this, he was held to 125 yards passing with just one TD and an interception as the Falcons got pasted by Tampa Bay 34-10. The Falcons lost six games this year. In each of those games, defenses found a way to control Michael Vick. Philadelphia will find a way. Philadelphia gave up only 15.1 points per game (versus nearly 20 for Atlanta). They held opponents to 6.1 yards per pass attempt (second only to Tampa Bay for teams still in the playoffs). And, they don’t give up big plays. Teams that won their previous playoff games as a big underdog are 18% ATS in their next game. The Eagles won 75% of their regular season games for a reason. They are probably Super Bowl-bound. Michael Vick will win a Super Bowl but not this year. Philadelphia covers this spread easily.
The reasons are numerous… Tampa Bay has the # 1 defense in the league, allowing just 12.3 points per game. The Bucs will not allow Jeff Garcia to scramble his way to an improbable win as the Giants did. Tampa Bay allows an incredibly low 5.5 yards per pass attempt (the other seven teams in the playoffs average 6.6!). I think Garcia will have a very difficult and frustrating day. He loves to scramble to make plays happen. He won’t be able to do this against Warren Sapp, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks. This will force him out of his game and cause errors. Hard hitting Pro Bowl safety John Lynch won’t let Terrell Owens have his way. And, Tampa won’t be surprised by a no-huddle offense if it comes out. The Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl a few years back with a defense like this and a much worse offense than what Tampa Bay has (with Brad Johnson at the helm). Tampa’s one weakness is their mediocre running game. A healthy Brad Johnson is critical for a Tampa Bay win. Without him at QB, the Bucs put up 11 points per game. With him, they put up over 23. He claims to be in perfect shape and better rested than he has been all season. I think this line would be much higher if Johnson finished the regular season as the Bucs would have beaten Pittsburgh and finished the season on a 4-game win streak. The Niners took advantage of their home field advantage to find a way to come back last week. This week they will have no such luxury. If they get down, they are history. If the 49ers become one dimensional, the Bucs will register a half a dozen sacks and get a few picks. In addition, the Bucs qualify for a trend involving teams that perform very well during the regular season against teams that do not that is 27-12 ATS (6-2 the last three years). The Bucs should be favored by over a touchdown in this game. My power ratings make them a 10 point favorite yet we are only laying 5.5. San Francisco shouldn’t be here. Tampa Bay definitely belongs. Take Tampa to open up a big ole can o’ whoop ass on the Niners.
Because they have to go play Oakland - that’s why. I think Oakland is sick of hearing about how good New York is. Besides, the hype is a bit overblown. Last week’s Jets win was certainly impressive but remember that the Colts were a team who really didn’t deserve to be there. They are a turf team that had to play on grass, and they always choke in big games. The Jets crushed two playoff teams (Indy, GB) two weeks in a row which is the only reason this spread is under a touchdown. But those two teams have shown themselves to be pretenders so take it all with a grain of salt. Oakland is another story, entirely. Oakland delivered the Jet’s one of their only two losses in the second half of the year. In that game, Rich Gannon hit 74% of his passes for 342 yards. Jets players are now talking smack about how the Raiders didn’t “clearly beat us. We just ran out of time.” Hmmmm… When the clock runs out and you have fewer points than they do, I guess it’s not a “clear” loss. It was just that you “ran out of time.” Come on! Also, don’t forget that Chad Pennington and these red-hot Jets are not invincible. You may recall a week fifteen game against the hapless Bears that the Jets lost as 6.5 point favorites (yes, I predicted that one). They can lose if the circumstances are right. Do you realize Chad Pennington is 9-4 as a starter? That’s not bad but who would you really rather have – him or league MVP Rich Gannon? Also, last I must admit that I am a bit nervous going against such a hot team. But history tells us they will fall to the Silver and Black. If New York does find a way to cover in this game, it will be because of Pennington. But I don’t see him having enough to lift his entire team above the horror that confronts them at the “Black Hole” that is Oakland. I wouldn’t go against the Jets unless they were playing a team with the recipe to cool them down. That team better have a stellar defense, an explosive offense, confidence, motivation and home-field advantage. Oakland fits the bill beautifully. And, as hot as New York is, Oakland is just as hot finishing the season with seven wins out of their last eight. While these two teams are pretty evenly matched in the passing game on both offense and defense, Oakland finds a way to score more and hold their opponents to less. Not an insignificant point given that the team that scores more wins the football game! Oakland averaged 28.1 points per game and gave up 18.6 while the Jets scored only 22.4 and allowed 21 per game. In addition, the Raiders hold a significant edge in rushing on both sides of the ball. When Rich Gannon has time to throw, he kills you. The Jets defense won’t be able to put enough pressure on Gannon as they have just 30 sacks this year. This compares to an average of 44 for the other seven teams still in the playoffs. For icing on the cake, the Raiders qualify for four postseason trends involving home teams that are a combined 136-62 ATS (30-16 the last three years). Oakland is off two week’s rest. New York has to travel 3000 miles after playing last weekend. Pennington’s time will come, but it won’t be this year. Sorry Cinderella, the shoe doesn’t fit. Good luck!
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