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Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions 2002 Weekly NFL Picks Pre
Season Week 4 Welcome
to the 2002 Preseason Week 4 Wunderdog NFL Newsletter Well,
we're almost there - the NFL regular season!
The Wunderdog can hardly wait to apply my
150+ situational trends, statistical analysis,
and keen "sniffer" to games that
really count. But, let's not get ahead of
ourselves. There are still some great underdog
values to be had before this preseason
is over. In week 4, teams will rest their
starters for a larger percentage of
the game for fear of injury. Given that,
we need to rely even less on the strength
of teams' starters and more on team depth
and situations that have consistently produced
winners in the past. On to the games...
New
York Giants (+3) over Baltimore
The
G-Men have so much going for them in this contest
it is almost unfair. They are coming off a
28-7 spanking by the cross-town Jets after
losing by a wide (12 point) margin to the Falcons
the week before. Both games were SU and ATS
losers for New York. The coaches and players
are (or should be) pissed off and taking this
last preseason game more seriously than most
teams. They are going to be eager to reverse
the negative trend going into the regular season.
Small (3 points or less) home underdogs coming
off road games and home dogs in the last week
of the preseason have historically done well
covering 7 out of 10 and 6 out of 10, respectively.
Baltimore, a team struggling to find a new
identity, hasn't been able to put up many
points (13.7/game) in its first three games,
with new QB Chris Redman at the helm.
I don't expect much more from them this game.
The Giants were initially installed as a 2
point favorite but are now getting a gift of
3 points. Take the Giants to the bank.
Carolina
(+1) over Cleveland
The
Panthers are also coming off an embarrassing
loss by 20 points. Teams in this situation,
even in the preseason, usually bounce back
to cover the following week. Visiting teams
with less than 7 wins in the prior season fare
well against teams with 7-9 wins to the tune
of 79% (2-1 so far this year). Also,
visiting teams that were poor offensively and
defensively the prior-year (ranked in
the bottom third of the league) do well against
teams that were average (68% ATS). Cleveland
limps into the game without starting QB Tim
Couch. Shouldering the load will be Kelly
Holcomb and rookie Josh Booty - not exactly
a pair of QBs that strikes fear in opposing
defenses. Carolina wins this one.
Buffalo
(+3.5) over Detroit
This
one is based not so much on faith in Buffalo,
but on Detroit's weaknesses. The Lions are
3-20 (including preseason) under Matt Millen/Marty
Mornhinweg. Buffalo isn't fairing any better
this preseason at 0-3. However, underdogs
in matchups of winless teams historically
win two out of every three in the preseason.
Additionally, teams getting points when facing
coaches who historically lose most of their
games in the preseason (i.e. Mornhinweg)
also win two out of three (5-2 so far this
preseason). Buffalo is getting more than
a field goal against a very poor team
and they should be able to take advantage
of it.
Good
luck with Week 4 of the Preseason and we'll
see you next week for the real thing!
Good luck!
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