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Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions 2002 Weekly NFL Picks Post
Season Conference Finals Welcome to the 2002 Conference Finals Wunderdog Paid Subscription NFL Newsletter Another very successful week as I went 3-1 with my Semi-Finals selections, putting me at 6-1 for the playoffs. I predicted that all of the home teams would win due in part to the increased importance of home field advantage in the Semi-Final round (one team is rested and won enough games to earn home-field while the other is not at all rested). I predicted Donovan McNabb would shake off any rust by the second series and lead Philly to an easy win. I told subscribers that Mike Vick would really struggle against this defense, which was far superior to the teams he had recently beaten in big games. I also told subscribers how San Francisco didn’t deserve to be in the Finals and that Tampa Bay would kill them. I predicted a very rough day for Jeff Garcia, whose success comes from a scrambling game that the Bucs would shut down. My power ratings had Tampa at a strong 4.2 point advantage, indicating this line was way off. The most rewarding call, however, was Oakland to beat the Jets by 6+. The media bandwagon was all over the Jets, calling them the Super Bowl winner after they dismantled the Packers and Colts in subsequent weeks. I pointed out to my subscribers, however, that those two games were not as important as they seemed. Indy sucks and Green Bay is mediocre. I said that Oakland was pissed off about hearing all about the Jets while Oakland, with a better team and the MVP at quarterback, was being ignored. I pointed out that although he seemed invincible, NYJ QB Chad Pennington was only 9-4 as a starter this year and that Oakland would be a much tougher place to play than the friendly confines of Giants stadium. Finally, I predicted Gannon would have an easy day against a defense that had only 30 sacks for the season which was nearly a third lower than the average number of sacks for the other seven teams in the playoffs at that time. I lost the cover on Tennessee as a 4 point favorite, even though they won the game by 3. I knew this was the toughest of the four games to call but I felt Tennessee had the edge in a number of important categories. I said it would come down to big plays, and it did – Tennessee turned the ball over 4 times resulting in 20 points for Pittsburgh. Kind of amazing that the Titans escaped with a victory. For the season, I am now a very profitable 49-34, with 12 winning weeks out of 18. On to this week’s power ratings and selections… The 2002 Conference Finals Matchup Power Ratings are posted. As a reminder, these ratings highlight for you the games in which the lines-makers have set the line incorrectly, BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TEAMS. This can be for good reasons (i.e. injuries) or bad reasons (the public’s perception is way off). The underrated team is the one the statistics point to as the play. Be aware that these ratings are statistically driven and do not account for other important handicapping elements such as motivation, injuries, and situational trends. There are times I actually play against the ratings due to the other factors.
TAMPA BAY +3.5 AT PHILADELPHIA These stats don’t mean a thing according to Jon Gruden and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Eagles knocked Tampa Bay out of the playoffs the last two years by a combined score of 52-12. Tampa couldn’t score a touchdown. And, Philadelphia won the matchup this year 20-10. Will it be different this year? The fact that Tampa Bay players and coaches are going out of their way to say that history doesn’t matter tells me they are scared – very scared. It’s as if they think that saying something over and over, in public, will make it true. The funny thing is, they haven’t supplied any GOOD reasons why it won’t happen again. They “can’t explain it” but promise that it will “be different this time.” Uh-huh. Jon Gruden said “If we sit around and are real deep, philosophical people, maybe you can let it get to you. But if you stay shallow and zoom in on the immediate future, we're both undefeated in the 2002 postseason. That's how I look at it.” Help me Jon, why is it going to be any different this time around? We all know this matchup features two of the league’s top defenses. It all comes down this: Which offense can score against the brick-wall that will be facing them? I think it will be harder for Tampa Bay than for Philadelphia. Tampa Bay’s win last week against San Francisco looked impressive. They won 31-6! But I contend that at least half of that victory was due to the fact that San Francisco, a team lucky to be there, simply didn’t show up. As you know, I called for an easy Tampa Bay win. However, a lot of that was based on the matchup advantages and the way I expected SF to play – not just due to Tampa’s strengths. Tampa Bay got five turnovers in a home playoff game after an extra week of rest – they damn well should have won by 25 points! This week will be different. They have to go on the road and play in the cold against an awesome team that simply has their number. As I stated last week, this Tampa Bay offense is completely dependent on Brad Johnson. With him, they are a very good team. Without him, they are horrible. Tampa Bay does not have a running game – period. They average less than 100 yards per game on the ground and only 3.8 yards per carry. I too would be scared if I was a one-dimensional team against this Philadelphia Eagles defense. Expect the Eagle’s blitzers to have their ears pinned back more than usual, which is saying a lot. If Brad Johnson gets hurt in this game, Tampa Bay will get destroyed. If McNabb happens to leave the game, Philadelphia may not lose a beat. And, Philly’s defensive strength is against the pass! They have three Pro Bowler’s in their secondary. And, their rush package speed is going to disrupt the very immobile Brad Johnson a great deal. This is exactly what happened earlier this year. I ask you – who on this Tampa Bay offense is going to have a big game against Philadelphia’s defense? In the cold? In Philadelphia? With that field? And those fans? I could go on and on. Philadelphia is allowing just 6.3 points per game in their last three. This is the tougher game to call this week. It really could go either way. Tampa is just so good on defense, and I really respect Jon Gruden. Also, my power ratings give Tampa the slight edge. Turnovers and defensive touchdowns are the wildcards in this game. However, knowing that those things can’t be predicted, Philly is the way to go. In reality, maybe 52-12 and 1-21 are not important numbers. But I can tell you this – if Tampa gets down, or it is a close game, these numbers will be forefront in their minds. And, the power of the “self-fulfilling prophecy” is strong. They will lose hope, resigning them selves to the fact that those numbers actually might be important after all. If you like sure bets, stay away from this one. However, I like Philadelphia and will make them a pick.
The hottest team, statistically, is actually the Titans. They have won 11 of their last 12 games which is amazing. What’s more amazing is that they have done it without a lot of flash. They don’t get a lot of respect for what they have done as evidenced by a touchdown+ spread in this week’s game. Do they deserve more respect? Probably not. The reason they haven’t gotten the attention is that despite the wins, this team is not that strong statistically, relatively speaking. They are very good but consider this: while each of the other three teams still in the playoffs just killed some teams this year, the Titan’s never blew anyone out in the regular season. Tennessee won by an average of only 2.7 points per game whereas Oakland, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia won their games by 9.5, 9.4 and 10.9 points, respectively. In that sense, this Titans team reminds me a little of Chicago from last year – won a lot of games but could have pretty easily been 8-8 instead of 11-5. Let’s look a little deeper at Tennessee relative to the other three teams remaining. Their offense is slightly better than Tampa’s but they don’t have anything near Tampa’s defense to balance things out. The Titan offense is significantly worse than Oakland’s and Philadelphia’s. Oakland averages 28.1 points per game and Philly 25.9. Tennessee averages only 22.9. Tennessee grinds out just 3.8 yards per carry versus 4.3 and 4.5 for Oakland and Philly, respectively. Even though McNair gets a lot of deserved kudos, his team manages only 6.9 yards per pass versus 7.6 for Oakland. You see my point. Tennessee is a good well-rounded club but really doesn’t excel in enough places. And, the matchup here is not a good one for Tennessee. The one area where the Titans do excel, rush defense (89 yards allowed per game) is the area that doesn’t matter against Oakland. Oakland’s pass offense is good enough to carry the team. They pass to set up the run. Of the four remaining teams, Tennessee has the worst pass defense (25th in the league!) which isn’t a good thing against Rich Gannon. That’s reason enough to like the Raiders. But on top of that, Oakland does run the ball well when they choose to. They are averaging a very impressive 4.3 yards per carry and 111 yards per game on the ground. Again, their passing game opens up running opportunities. The net result is that by the fourth quarter, they have worn down both the secondary and defensive lines of their opponents. Oakland is just too strong and too motivated. My power ratings give Oakland a significant edge at 2.5. We all know about their league-leading offense. But did you know their defense has allowed under 9 points per game in the last three? They allowed just 90.8 yards per game on the ground, making their run defense as good as Tennessee’s. Oakland is far more motivated than Tennessee to win this game. Oakland understands that it is now or never for them this year. They have major age and salary-cap issues that kick in next year. And, they know how it feels to make it this far and lose. They lost a heartbreaker last year in the Conference Finals to New England in the snow and were beat by Baltimore as home favorites in the same situation as this two years ago. On top of it all, the Titans are banged up. McNair is back on the injured list and Eddie George had to leave last week’s game with a concussion. His status is up in the air. Oakland is stacked with veteran leadership with playoff and Super Bowl experience: Bill Romanowski, Rod Woodson, Jerry Rice, etc. These guys, who know that this year is their swan song, are preparing this team to make it to the big dance. Oakland beat Tennessee 52-25 earlier this year. Both sides remember that, giving confidence to Oakland and fueling fears in Tennessee. Expect more of the same in this one. Oakland covers the large spread.
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