Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions

2002 Weekly NFL Picks

Regular Season Week 8

Welcome to the 2002 Week 8 Wunderdog Paid Subscription NFL Newsletter
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Wunderdog is ready for a great week 8!

For the season, the Wunderdog is 17-9-2 (65.4%). Week 7 was a downer with a straight-up win on 7-point dog San Diego and losses with Minnesota, Carolina and Indianapolis and a push on Kansas City. Favorites ruled in week 7, winning 69% (9 out of 13 games). Hang in there, ye faithful – the dogs will be back!

This week there are several tasty looking games but before we get to them as well as the Wunderdog Matchup Power Ratings for Week 8, I would like to share the answer to a simple question one subscriber, Darrick, posed this week: How do teams fare in the following situations: home dog, home favorite, away dog, away favorite. Based on my database, here are the results since 1980:

Home Dogs: 806-709-41 (53.2%) (Away Favorites are obviously the inverse)
Home Favorite: 1651-1731-85 (48.8%) (Away Dogs are the inverse)

As you can see, there isn't a whole lot here to work with since you need to hit 52.8% to break-even when factoring in the juice. The trick is to figure out additional ways to slice/dice the data to gain more of an advantage. For example, if you take the first situation (home dogs) and narrow it to those that are off a SU win as a dog, you get 157-101-8 (60.9%). I use over 150 situational angles such as this, along with statistics, injuries, motivation, etc. in my analysis. You can read more about my philosophy here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/Philosophy.html. If you have a question for the Dog, please feel free to email me!

Week 8 Selections:

Denver +3 over New England
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I bet you all thought Wunderdog was a Bronco-hater, having gone against them three of the past four weeks (going 2-0-1 with those selections). Alas, I like them this week as a doggy! The Ponies have proven themselves one of the league’s top teams, yet find themselves getting three points against a struggling Patriots team that has lost three straight. In the last three games, New England has been exposed, allowing three 100+ yard rushers and scoring only 37 points while giving up 75. Turmoil.

Griese has finally found Shannon Sharpe and Denver’s offense should have no problem against a team giving up over 28 points a game in their last four contests. Denver will most likely shift its focus to the ground as their eighth-ranked rushing offense faces New England’s twenty-eighth ranked rushing defense. Meanwhile, New England’s offensive fortunes will be pinned solely on Tom Brady as their twenty-third ranked rushing offense won’t have a prayer versus Denver’s #1 ranked rushing defense. Without a running game, Brady will be under too much pressure to have a lot of success.

On the downside, Denver will be without starting center Tom Nalen. I have long held that the most impactful injury is the Center position (with QB coming in second) because mis-snaps can turn any game around. I am hoping that with a full week of prep, backup Center Ben Hamilton will be prepared.

In any case, visiting dogs have historically fared very well against teams allowing 25+ points in their last two games (over 70% ATS) and I expect Denver to win this game outright.

Chicago +1 over Minnesota
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If you watched Minnesota last week you are questioning how they can be favored this week. After a win against Detroit, they returned to their losing ways, barely showing up against the Jets.

The Vikings are giving up nearly 31 points a game and home favorites with poor defenses typically do poorly against the spread.

At 2-4, the Bears need this win to stay in the playoff hunt while Minnesota’s season is lost.

My power rating data pegs Minnesota near the very bottom of the league and I expect Chicago to pull out a win on the road.

Baltimore +2.5 over Pittsburgh (if Ray Lewis plays)
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Baltimore enters this game on a roll, having won three out of their last four after a rocky start. If Ray Lewis plays (he practiced for the first time this week), they should win this game. The Ravens offense has shown life in the last few games and feature a revived running game (Jamal Lewis-576 rushing yards) and a star-in-the-making in rookie tight end Todd Heap (four touchdowns).

Pittsburgh is coming off an emotionally draining Monday night game and are without Jerome Bettis and their starting center, Jeff Hartings, due to injury. As I mentioned above, an injury to the center position is the most impactful in my opinion due to the problems it can cause from a turnover perspective (and the fact that the spread usually doesn’t account for injuries to non-skill positions).

I am a little worried about how well Tommy Maddox is playing but his success has come against poor-to-average defenses. This week he faces a bend-but-don’t-break Baltimore defense (9th in the league in scoring defense). Baltimore and the home crowd will have no problem getting up for this game, as it decides first place in the AFC North. Take the home team and the points against a slightly overrated Steeler team.

Kansas City +2.5 over Oakland (TOP DOG SELECTION)
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Can you say score-fest? I can’t remember an over/under this high (56) since the good ole days of the Greatest Show on Turf in 1999. The league’s top two offenses collide in Arrowhead. If these teams score their average, there will be 67 points scored in this contest!

Expect it to happen. Kansas City’s defense is just bad. Oakland, already without Pro Bowl cornerback Charles Woodson (questionable for this game), lost rookie cornerback and punt returner Phillip Buchanon last week.

Kansas City’s offense is unstoppable, led by phenom Priest Holmes. Holmes is leading the league in yards from scrimmage and has already scored 14 touchdowns (the last guy to score that many TDs in seven games was Jim Brown over 40 years ago!). This is the first running back to run for 100+ on Denver’s defense which puts him in a league of his own. Oakland won’t be able to stop him.

Both teams have lost two straight, but in very different ways. Kansas City is confident while Oakland is reeling. Kansas City had its last two games, against very good San Diego and Denver teams, in the bag only to lose in the end. Oakland has lost two straight as 8 and 7 point favorites.

These two teams typically play very close, with five of the last six contests being won by 3 points or less.

The Raiders are still overrated and should not be giving 2.5 points on the road. I’ll go with a Vermeil-coached team with its back against the wallet home getting points.

Good luck!

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These selections are based on opinion and are not guaranteed in any way. You are responsible for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no guarantees and cannot be held responsible for any actions taken by newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you gamble, do so only through legal channels. Good luck!

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