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Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions 2002 Weekly NFL Picks Regular
Season Week 7 Welcome to the 2002 Week 7 Wunderdog Paid Subscription NFL Newsletter San Diego +7 over Oakland Bloated spread.
The Raiders are coming off a stunning loss to the then 0-5 Rams with a 3rd string quarterback. Their confidence took a major hit. Don't expect that sting to be gone. San Diego, on the other hand is coming off an impressive, confidence-building come-from-behind win against a great Kansas City team. The Chargers proved that they can smack adversity in the face, overcoming five turnovers to get the win last week.
San Diego has the fourth best defense (scoring) in the league while Oakland's defensive weaknesses (especially against the run) were exposed last week by Mr. Faulk to the tune of 158 yards running. The Silver & Black have given up an average of 28 points over the last three games. They now face the league's second leading rusher in LaDainian Tomlinson (632 yards and six TDs).
Oakland has the better passing offense but San Diego has the better defense and running game. Give me those two and a touchdown any day! Take advantage of a crazy situation in which a potential Super Bowl team is getting seven points against a team that may not be as good as they appear.
Kansas City +3 over Denver For the third week in a row, Denver's top run defense faces one of the league's premier running backs (Tomlinson, Williams, and this week Holmes-the league's top producer).
The lines-makers have set Denver up as a 3 point favorite on the road against one of the league's better teams. Granted, Kansas City is 3-3 but they were one play and one point away from 4-2 in losing to an excellent Chargers team last week. Are the Broncos really 6 points better (accounting for home field advantage)?
Denver is coming off a tough emotional loss and has been distracted all week by a fine levied against strong safety Kenoy Kennedy for a vicious hit on Miami WR Chris Chambers in last Sunday's game. Coach Shannahan has spent more time trying to convince the public that the hit was OK than on preparing his team.
For Denver, this game is sandwiched in the middle of an excruciatingly tough stretch against Baltimore, San Diego, Miami, New England and Oakland. They cannot play at the top of their game every week. Will this be the week they struggle?
The bad news is that KC's defense is a sieve, allowing 32.2 points per game. The good news is their offense is on fire, putting up 34.2 points per game, second best in the league.
The Chiefs have shown they can put up lots of points, even against good defenses. Denver's offense is inconsistent enough to make me wonder about laying points on the road against a high-powered offense.
Kansas City, especially with the home crowd that has given Denver lots of problems (KC is 8-2 at home in last 10 against Denver), should win this one outright.
Indianapolis +4.5 over Pittsburgh Are the Steelers back after a 34-7 trouncing of the Bengals last week? Don't count on it. Cincinnati is just THAT bad as evidenced by their best player, Corey Dillon, threatening to retire at the end of the year if things don't change. The lines-makers and the public are overreacting to a big win and giving Pittsburgh more credit than they deserve. My guess is that a lot of people saw last week's easy win as confirmation that Jerome Bettis and Company really are as good as they thought at the beginning of the season. I don't think so.
Tommy Maddox is not an NFL starting quarterback. Not only is he a backup, but he is a has-been backup. The "vaunted" Steeler defense isn't much better, ranked in the bottom third of the league in points and passing yards allowed.
On the other side, we have Peyton Manning who leads a very respectable passing attack (8th best in the league) and a defense ranked 10th in the league in scoring. The Colts' only loss came to a tough Miami team in week 2. Finally, Monday night teams coming off big road victories have lost 3 out of 4 games over the last ten years. I'm calling for yet another Monday Night upset.
Minnesota +3 over New York Jets At the beginning of the year, this looked like it would be a great game. But now, two of the league's most disappointing teams matchup in a contest that really doesn't matter much. It is often these types of games that offer great underdog value.
Minnesota notched their first win of the season last week with an impressive come-from-behind win against an up-and-coming Lions team. For the first time this season, the Vikings and their fans and media spent a positive week focusing on win instead of on Randy Mosses' off-field problems. It's just what the doctor ordered.
Although both teams are 1-4, and both defenses equally horrible, they are not equal when it comes to offense. While the Jets' offense subscribes to the notion that misery loves company (their offense is 28th in the league to match their second-to-last defense), Minnesota is scoring 26 points a game (a very respectable 8th in the NFL). The Jets, with the second-worst rushing offense in the league, are one dimensional. That should allow a normally poor Vikings defense (flush with new-found confidence) to pin their ears back and go after a young Chad Pennington (second career start) to disrupt an already miserable Jets offense.
In their last four games, the Jets have been outscored 131-38. I'll take that and three points to the bank.
Carolina +5 over Atlanta How much bad luck can one team have? Carolina has lost three straight after leading with 5 minutes to go in all three games. A missed 24-yard field goal here, a tipped pass for a touchdown there, and the 3-0 Panthers drop to 3-3.
Because of recent (some might say fluke) losses, and the fact that they need to start their second-string quarterback, the Panthers are an underrated team.
Expect
the Falcons to struggle against the league's second-best
defense, leading the league in sacks. The Panther defense
will keep this game close. Throw in the fact that road
dogs coming off a loss tend to do well against divisional
opponents (historically winning three out of four)
and we have an upset-in-the-making. Good luck!
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