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Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions 2002 Weekly NFL Picks Regular
Season Week 6 Welcome to the 2002 Week 6 Wunderdog
NFL Newsletter Week 5 was the first losing week for the Wunderdog in the 2002 preseason or regular season campaign. My doggies went 2-3 with Jacksonville and Green Bay pulling upsets and losses with Buffalo, Atlanta and St. Louis. These things will happen. We are still at 74% for the season (14-5) including two straight Monday night blow-out upsets. Will the Wunderdog be going for three MNF picks in a row? Read on…
Buffalo’s D is ranked dead last in the league for points allowed, giving up a whopping 36 points a game. To put that in perspective, that is 14% higher than last year’s worst defense (Indianapolis at 31.7 ppg who went 6-10 ATS). After five games they have still have no interceptions. I find it interesting that a team with one of the worst defensive performances ever over the first quarter of a season is giving 7.5 points ON THE ROAD! On the flipside, Drew Bledsoe may finally struggle. Why do I say that? The teams he has faced (and torched) so far have an average league ranking of 27 (out of 32) in passing defense (yards). On contrast, Houston has a surprisingly good pass defense, rated 8th best in the league. The Texans are coming off an extra week of preparation. Remember how Dom Capers was able to get his team up for a big game against Dallas in Week 1 when he had a lot of time to prepare and motivate his team? Expect another solid performance here as Capers has spent two weeks tweaking what has been an pooor-performing offense. My guess is we will see some pretty drastic improvements. Two of practice weeks for young David Carr is a lifetime! Expect an improved performance from him and a team that will be working overtime to get back on the winning track. There’s more… Historically, big underdogs with losing records do very well against the spread in a week following a bye (winning 7 out of 10). It gets even better against teams with losing records (9 out of 10). Finally, throw
in the fact that the Bills, coming off a grueling three-game
stretch against Denver, Chicago and
Oakland, will be looking to take a little rest against
a “weak” Texans team and you have yourself
a great Doggie situation! Miami +3.5 over Denver On the other side of the ball, Miami’s defense is no slouch. They enter the game with the fourth best rushing defense in the league. Putting the game on Griese’s shoulders has proven to be a bad formula for the Broncos (think Baltimore two weeks ago). While both teams have started strong, Miami has started stronger. In the first quarter, Denver has outscored opponents 24-0 while Miami has outscored their opponents 44-10. If Miami can get a lead in this game and hand the game to Ricky, they will win. As you can tell, this is a pretty even matchup. The Wunderdog sees some value, though and will lean towards the more consistent team that is scoring 6 points more per game and getting over a field goal. In addition, Miami qualifies for a historical situation that is 21-3 over the last ten years (10-1 the last three). Go fins!
We are getting a lot of line value due to two straight losses by Carolina. But let’s consider why and how they lost two straight games after starting 3-0. The Panthers committed 7 turnovers in those two games (versus just 2 in their first two games). If they can correct this one item, they should be able to manhandle the Boys. The Panthers are still an excellent football team (could easily be 5-0) and will be working extra hard this week to turn their fortune around. If the Panthers need any more motivation, consider the following quote from Panther WR Steve Smith, referring to what he and other teammates considered a cheap hit in a preseason game this year that ended the season for teammate Michael Bates: "If that's the way they want to play, it all comes in cycles," Smith said. "We'll see them again on Oct. 13. That type of play is not what we're here for." Here we have a better team with the league’s top defense, a better offense (the Panthers outrank Dallas in offense yards and points), and motivation getting 2 points! Take them to the bank.
On the other hand, this is a big game for Seattle. They get a chance to strut their stuff under the national spotlight against one of the league’s (apparent) top teams at home. They have had two weeks to get up for this game. Home team dogs, especially after byes are great bets. The Seahawks, a rare Monday night home underdog, will be fired up and exuding confidence after a 48-23 spanking of Minnesota two weeks ago. The fans will be into it and they again get the national TV spotlight, where they shined against the Vikings. Seattle head
coach Mike Holmgren is 7-1 against his former SF team.
I usually don’t put much weight on team-specific
trends but in this case, there is excellent reasoning:
Holmgren knows how to beat San Francisco. Speaking of Holmgren,
he started the year at 0-3 (the first time he has done
that in 11 years as an NFL head coach). Although they got
the first win two weeks ago, you can bet Holmgren is still
motivated to attest for such a horrible start. Pure will
alone will not win ball games but combined with an extra
week to prepare, expect Seattle to be sharp. Throw in the
emotional lift of the return of Pro Bowl defensive tackle
and emotional team leader John Randle from knee surgery
last year. Good luck!
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