Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions

2002 Weekly NFL Picks

Regular Season Week 17

Welcome to the 2002 Week 17 Wunderdog Paid Subscription NFL Newsletter

Week 16 winners included Oakland and the Giants while Tampa Bay, Chicago and Jacksonville were losers. For the season, I am now 41-32, with 9 winning weeks out of 15.

Before I get to this week’s picks, let’s look ahead a week to the playoffs…

THE NFL POSTSEASON – HOW DOES THE ‘DOG HANDICAP?
I just love the postseason. Although there is obviously an opportunity to do well during the regular season, the playoffs provide a much more consistent and predictable set of circumstances. As opposed to going primarily with underdogs, I spread it around in the postseason. In fact, I actually lean towards the favorites. Why is that? Here are some of the reasons:

1. THE CREAM RISES TO THE TOP
In the NFL playoffs, the best teams usually win, and cover the spread. Identifying the best team is not always easy, but if you can, you can consistently win in the postseason. There are a myriad of stats to look at including straight-up record, core statistics (points, rushing, passing, etc) and non-core stats (sacks, punting yardage, etc). Wunderdog utilizes a system that weights statistics based on their historical predictive properties.

2. THERE IS NO “NEXT WEEK” FOR LOSERS… AKA THE “RUN UP THE SCORE” SYNDROME
In the regular season we can spot situations where a favorite is poised to be upset by a supposedly lowly underdog. In the regular season, even very strong teams sometimes let down their guard. In the playoffs, letdowns rarely happen. This is no surprise. Players and coaches understand that if they lose this game, they go home. So, the stronger teams play up to their true ability. The favorites don’t often let up at the end of a game to allow a dog a late cover. In fact, in the playoffs teams run up the score. Even if they are up by two touchdowns, the winning team wants to leave NOTHING to chance and will take the opportunity to score another two if they can. The unwritten rule in the NFL (don’t run up the score) goes out the window in January as opposing coaches and players don’t frown on having the score run-up against them. They would do it if the roles were reversed!

3. HOME SWEET HOME!
It is widely recognized that home field advantage in the NFL is important. Regular season spreads are routinely adjusted by about 3 to 3.5 points in favor of the home team. But in the playoffs, home field advantage cannot be overstated. Home squads don’t have to travel after a long brutal season. The home field energy from the crowd is especially intense in January. Weather plays a big role (just ask a warm weather team like Tampa Bay having to travel to Green Bay or Buffalo in January). And, the better team usually “earned” home field advantage by playing awesome football for 16 weeks. The lines-makers simply cannot adjust the spread enough to account for these factors. Over the past eight seasons, home teams have covered the spread nearly 64% of the time! Home underdogs do even better. Home dogs are very rare (we have seen only 13 of them since 1982) but if you find one – jump on it as they are 11-1-1 against the spread in those games.

4. STATISTICAL HANDICAPPING INCREASES IN IMPORTANCE.
In the playoffs, we have reliable data from 16 games worth of stats to evaluate. As stated earlier, the best teams step up in January and there are fewer situational letdowns and surprises. The teams with the better team in key statistical areas usually win. Knowing which stats to emphasize an lead to very successful spread predictions.
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I have developed a post-season system that has delivered consistent winners. I will share my past season records in next week’s newsletter.

On to this week’s power ratings and selections…

The Week 17 Matchup Power Ratings are posted. As a reminder, these ratings highlight for you the games in which the lines-makers have set the line incorrectly, BASED ON THE STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TEAMS. This can be for good reasons (i.e. injuries) or bad reasons (the public’s perception is way off). The underrated team is the one the statistics point to as the play. Be aware that these ratings are statistically driven and do not account for other important handicapping elements such as motivation, injuries, and situational trends. There are times I actually play against the ratings due to the other factors.

The Wunderdog Week 17 Selections:

CLEVELAND +2.5 OVER ATLANTA
Who needs to win? Maybe both teams… maybe one. Cleveland definitely needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. If Philadelphia beats the Giants on Saturday, Atlanta will be in the playoffs by the time they take the field against Cleveland. If that happens, this becomes an even stronger pick as Atlanta will have little left to play for.

Statistically, Atlanta is the better team but these teams are actually pretty close and my Power Ratings show Cleveland to be underrated here. Atlanta has the edge in rushing while Cleveland is a better passing team. Atlanta is more exciting to watch and has a better record but Cleveland has lost a lot of close games that they could have won.

This one should be close. With head coach Butch Davis, the Browns have had over half (58%) of their games decided in the final minute of the ball game. Seven of their fifteen games this year have been decided by 3 or less.

Home dogs in their final game of the season are 65% ATS when playing good or great teams and home dogs off an away win (low scoring) as a dog are 88% ATS in the next game.

I expect Cleveland to keep this game close and win it outright if Atlanta has nothing to play for.

HOUSTON +8.5 OVER TENNESSEE
Tennessee nailed down the AFC South last week with their ninth win in the last ten games. After an incredible last two thirds of the season, it is time for the Titans to rest a little for the playoffs. Yes, they are playing for a first-round bye. But, it is unlikely they will be playing with their recent intensity against Houston. In the unlikely event that Oakland loses to KC on Saturday, Tennessee will have a shot at home-field advantage in the playoffs and they will be playing harder. But if Oakland wins, Tennessee won’t be as motivated.

Meanwhile, this game is the final one for the inaugural Houston Texans. They have no reason to rest. They have every reason to end the season on a high note. But will isn’t everything? Can they do it as a big underdog?

Houston’s offense certainly has its problems but should manage to put up points against a mediocre Tennessee defense (ranked in the middle of the league in scoring defense and in the bottom third in pass defense). The Texans boast a good defense, ranked 18th overall and 10th against the run, which should help against Eddie George.

If Tennessee is up comfortably in the second half, I expect them to rest McNair which would open the door for a late Houston cover.

How has Houston done in this type of situation? In their first meeting this year, Tennessee managed a 7-point win while Houston covered as a 9.5 point underdog. Houston plays above expectations within the division, having covered 60% of inter-division games this year.

Home underdogs of 7+ historically do very well against the spread at around 64%. This trend has done even better over the past three years, hitting 75% including 6-2 this year. Houston is 2-1 in this situation having covered in week 1 against Dallas (+8) and Buffalo in week 6 (+7.5) while sporting a sole loss against the spread to Indianapolis in week 3 as a 10.5 point dog. In addition, Houston also covered the two other home games in which they got more than 3 points at home (JAC +6 and NYG +5.5).

Houston should be able to keep this game closer than a touchdown.

ST. LOUIS +2 OVER SAN FRANCISCO – ONLY IF TAMPA BAY WINS ON SUNDAY
As long as Tampa Bay beats Chicago on Sunday, San Francisco will have nothing to play for in this game. They locked up the division three weeks ago and can’t win home field unless Tampa Bay loses.

The 49ers will rest key players in this game, including Terrell Owens and Jeff Garcia. The Rams are also playing backups including either the third or fourth-string QB. So, stats don’t mean a whole lot in this contest. But that doesn’t mean we can’t predict the outcome.

The Rams would very much like to end a horrible season on a high note. They get a home game in front of a national audience against a team that couldn’t care less about winning this game (as long as TB wins).

The 49ers haven’t fared well in St. Louis, having lost three straight dating back to 1999. Finally, small Monday night home dogs cover the spread nearly 7 out of every 10 games.

Don’t be surprised to see a win by St. Louis.

Good luck!

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These selections are based on opinion. You are responsible for how you use these, if at all. Wunderdog makes no guarantees and cannot be held responsible for any actions taken by newsletter subscribers. Of course, if you wager, do so only through legal channels. Good luck!

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