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Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions 2002 Weekly NFL Picks Regular
Season Week 14 Welcome to the 2002 Week 14 Wunderdog Paid Subscription NFL Newsletter Week 13 was a wash at 2-2. Dallas and Jacksonville covered while Detroit and Cincinnati did not. Despite outplaying Baltimore and holding a comfortable 9 point lead in the second half, Cincinnati gave away the game with a blocked punt for a TD and a fumble. On the other hand, I probably didn’t deserve a cover with Jacksonville who back-door covered at the end of the game. You win some, you lose some. For the season, the Wunderdog is now 35-21 (63%), with 9 winning weeks out of 12 (75%). On to this week’s power ratings and selections… The Week 14
Matchup Power Ratings are posted. As a reminder, these
ratings highlight for you the games in which the
lines-makers have set the line incorrectly, BASED ON THE
STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TEAMS. This can be for good
reasons (i.e. injuries) or bad reasons (the public’s
perception is way off). The underrated team is the one
the statistics point to as the play. Be aware that these
ratings are statistically driven and do not account for
other important handicapping elements such as motivation,
injuries, and situational trends. There are times I actually
play against the ratings due to the other factors.
BALTIMORE +2.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS New Orleans is coming off a draining big game against Tampa Bay. This is a must-win for Baltimore but not for New Orleans. Baltimore’s Jamal Lewis is back to SuperBowl form, already over 1000 yards rushing and putting up an average of 100 yards per game over the last four while averaging over 5 yards per carry. Take the home team in desperate need of a win against a hurting team that doesn’t care as much.
The Cardinals have lost six straight, including a 0-49 drubbing last week by the Chiefs. It was Arizona’s worst loss ever. How can you score 0 points against a team that is giving up 28 points per game? I believe the Cardinals players have thrown in the towel for the season. If that weren’t enough, they are without their top two receivers (David Boston and Frank Sanders) this game. The Lions on the other hand are still fighting. They are happy to be at five wins with a rookie quarterback and see this as a very winnable sixth game. If Harrington didn’t throw three crucial picks last week, the Lions could have easily beaten the defending Super Bowl champs. Clearly the Lions asked too much of a rookie QB and need to run the ball more, as James Stewart has been very effective (4.7 yards per rush). I am going to assume that Detroit coach Mornhinweg has figured this out. Besides, Harrington will finally be facing a bad pass defense, after going up against 11 good or excellent ones over the past 12 games. The Lions have also had a few extra days of rest and preparation and getting out of Dodge (or Detroit in this case) will be good for them. Finally, Detroit qualifies for a very successful situation (28-10 ATS including 5-1 the last two years) featuring dogs against opponents off a bunch of straight-up losses.
My power ratings show Dallas to be statistically underrated in this game and there are a lot of other factors that complement that assessment. Dallas is coming off two straight wins for the first time this season. The defense has been there for them all season long, ranked 5th in the league in points allowed and giving up a league best 3.6 yards per carry on the ground. They have just been waiting for the offense to come around. And around it has come. Chad Hutchison has found his groove and his success has spilled over into the running game. Emmitt’s putting up numbers that rival his prime years and Joey Galloway is showing he is one of the league’s scariest threats. After averaging 11.8 points per game during their first ten games, the Cowboys have put up 24 per game over the last two. Combined with their excellent defense, they are a threat to win any game. It comes down to this. The Cowboys are on the upswing and brimming with confidence while San Francisco is struggling a bit. Dallas has a much better defense and a resurgent offense. And here’s the kicker – they are getting well over a field goal at home. Take the Boys.
Oakland and Rich Gannon, in particular, are on fire. But they were also on fire during their earlier four-game winning streak that was followed by four straight losses. You still don’t know what you are going to get with the Raiders. One of those four losses was a home loss to these Chargers. I am worried about the Charger’s weak pass defense against these Raiders but I have faith in Marty Schottenheimer figuring out a way to disrupt Gannon and company enough. Besides, LaDainian Tomlinson should keep the ball away from the Raiders offense long enough. Any questions about LT after putting up 220 yards against the league’s stingiest run defense? He will strike fear into the Raider’s defense. If the Raiders put 8 or more in the box to contain him, QB Drew Brees is good enough to make a worse-than-average Raiders passing defense pay. The Chargers qualify for a 42-19 trend involving winning home dogs playing other winning teams. San Diego wins at home. They are 5-1 straight up at home this year including three upset wins as dogs. In a game that can go either way and might be destined to overtime, I’ll take the home team getting a field goal.
Can it continue? I don’t think so with A.J. Feeley at quarterback. The Eagles managed just 10 points in his first start and the only touchdown was a defensive one! But can Seattle score enough to win? It will be tough against this defense. But consider that the Seahawks have put up over 500 yards in each of their last two games. They won’t need to put up 30 points and if they can continue with their recent proficiency, they will score the upset. With two big wins when they were expected to lose, and a commanding lead in their division, Philadelphia isn’t feeling much pressure to win. They still need to win to clinch home field but not this week. Although the stats favor Philadelphia, I have trouble believing they can continue there level of play for yet another week, especially with Feeley at the helm.
Carolina will be without star defensive end Julius Peppers. He will be noticeably missed. Peppers had 12 sacks in twelve games and was on pace to set the rookie record. Peppers isn’t the only Panther that is missing from the lineup due to off-field problems. DT Brenston Buckner, WR Steve Smith, and RB Lamar Smith, all startes, are out. The Bengals qualify for a 28-10 ATS situation involving dogs against teams that have really struggled to win games. The Panthers have the second-worst offense in the league (scoring just 13.2 points per game) and I expect a resurgent Bengals offense to put up enough to win this game outright.
After two great games, Kordell Stewart gets the bench. Right call? Not in my book. Momentum is too rare and too precious in the NFL and doing something to upset that is a mistake in my book. We have seen it with St. Louis who has lost two straight after switching QBs following a six game winning streak. Does Stewart’s performance tell us anything about Maddox? You bet! Maddox has done a superb job but I believe that there are a couple of other very important factors that also account for Pittsburgh’s turnaround and recent success. I always had a hunch that the rest of the Steeler team picked things up right around the time Stewart was benched in week 5. I think this coincidence made Maddox look like more of a star than he really is. The Steeler Defense shaved 6 points per game (from 26.3 to 20.5) off their average since Maddox started winning in week 6. Will Pittsburgh’s defense be able to continue the improved showing? I think they will struggle to get up for this game and they are showing signs of relaxing again, giving up 27.5 points per game over the last four. So, Maddox is doing very well… but he isn’t the save-all that many people think. And, he is now in a very different situation coming in with high expectations and the pressure associated with that along with the fear of getting hit again. Also, the Steelers have gotten pretty darn lucky over the last eight games. They are +7 in turnovers during that stretch versus -9 in their first four games. If things return to normal and that luck runs out, they will really struggle to win by two touchdowns. Houston, on the other hand has a solid defense. They are 10th in the league in points allowed. Their strength (5th in the league in passing defense) matches up well with Pittsburgh’s strength (6th in the league in passing offense). Houston is losing by an average of 10 points per game and I think they will be able to keep this under two touchdowns.
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