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Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions 2002 Weekly NFL Picks Regular
Season Week 13 Welcome to the 2002 Week 13 Wunderdog Paid Subscription NFL Newsletter Week 12 was a big winner at 4-1. Winners included Baltimore, Washington, Detroit and Seattle with three of the four winning straight-up. Arizona blew the perfect weekend. I used to live in Idaho (where Arizona QB Jake Plummer went to high school) but if I ever go with a Plummer-quarterbacked team again, someone please shoot me. Is there a worse starting (not due to injury) QB in the NFL? For the season, the Wunderdog is now 33-19 (63.5%), with 9 winning weeks out of 12 (75%). Wunderdog is extremely confident about this week’s games. I can’t put my finger on why. Maybe it’s the way the analysis has pointed so confidently at some picks. Maybe it’s last week’s success. Maybe it’s the fact that this part of the season has been my best over the past two years. Or maybe it’s unfounded. At any rate, I feel as good about this week’s selections as any week this year. On to this week’s power ratings and selections… The Week 13
Matchup Power Ratings are posted. As a reminder, these
ratings highlight for you the games in which the
lines-makers have set the line incorrectly, based on the
statistical performance of the teams. This can be for good
reasons (i.e. injuries) or bad reasons (the public’s
perception is way off).
DETROIT+5.5 OVER NEW ENGLAND New England won the SuperBowl last year by playing good defense and running the ball. This year however, New England’s running game is in shambles, ranked 30th in the league. Antowain Smith has had just one 100+ yard game this season and is averaging less than 50 yards/game over the last three. In fact when it comes to the run, the Lions are better than the Patriots offensively and defensively. The Patriots are winless against the spread this year as favorites in six games while Detroit is 4 out of 5 ATS at home this year. And you can bet if this game goes into overtime and the Lions win the toss, they will take the ball! Lions head coach Mornhinweg needs this game to make up for last week’s bad call and to quell rumors that his job is on the line. Take the Lions to cover.
I love the fact that Dallas is getting points at home on Thanksgiving. On top of that the Redskins have lost nine straight against the Cowboys. In the same way that Thursday’s game will be Detroit’s Super Bowl, this is probably Dallas’ biggest remaining game. We were on Washington last week as they surprised the Rams. They won that game because they employed a balanced attack and really featured the run for the first time this season. Stephen Davis carried the ball 31 times. Most coaches would take that to heart and continue to run the ball. Spurrier, however, isn’t most coaches. Spurrier prefers to throw. Dallas’ twelfth-ranked rushing defense will give him just the excuse he needs to feature the pass again. The Skins have lost 10 out of the last 12 in Dallas and Dallas’ defense is still one of the league’s best (6th in points allowed) at bending but not breaking. This game is going to come down to Dallas’ ability to score points. Chad Hutchinson finally had a breakout game last week throwing for over 300 yards in a surprise victory against the resurgent Jaguars. I expect Dallas’ emotional high will carry them to a victory. Throw in the fact that Spurrier has to deal with a 3-day preparation for the firs time in his career, and we have an upset scenario.
Yes, the Bengals started out pathetic. In their first six games, they were outscored on average 8 to 30. Ouch. But let’s analyze their recent performance… Over the last five games, they are outscoring their opponents 26 to 25! In these games, they have played four very solid opponents in Tennessee, Baltimore, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. They destroyed the one patsy they played, Houston, 38-3. And, they showed a lot of heart last week overcoming a 17-point deficit to nearly beat a suddenly excellent Pittsburgh team. In fact, the Bengals were one play each away from winning the last two weeks. Cincinnati is still a bad team, but not nearly as bad as most people think. They now get a field goal at home against a Ray Lewis-less Ravens team that is mediocre. Take the Bengals and the points.
The Steelers defense, although improved from their horrible start, still can’t stop anyone on third down. In fact they rank second-to-last in the league in allowing third-down conversions. Jacksonville is a better red-zone team, both offensively and defensively, which has proven to be a good predictor this year. The Jags qualify for a 25-4 situation (11-2 the last three years) involving home teams facing teams off a home win as big favorites. The Steelers haven’t covered the spread since their game against Baltimore five weeks ago and I expect that streak to continue.
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