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Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions 2002 Weekly NFL Picks Regular
Season Week 12 Welcome to the 2002 Week 12 Wunderdog Paid Subscription NFL Newsletter Week 11 was a bad one at 1-3 or 1-2 depending on how you look at it. San Diego won and Denver and Dallas lost. These were the official monitored selections. Detroit (free pick) also lost but wasn’t included in the official picks submitted to Free Sports Monitor. From here on out, I will make sure all picks make it into the official list. For the season, the Wunderdog is now 29-18 (62%), with 8 winning weeks out of 11. Because last week was so bad (I just hate losing weeks!), and because I feel very confident about this week’s five games, I am going to guarantee a winning week 12. Anyone who purchases my selections this week will get next week’s picks free if I don’t post a winning record. As I touched on last week, there has been interest in exploring what kind of Return on Investment (ROI) a player can expect at various winning percentages. The “investment” we are speaking of is the money laid to win a bet (for example $110 to win $100) and, if applicable, the cost of a sports service. The “return” is the net winnings or losses based on that investment. As I noted last week, we can look at historical average returns for common stocks as a reasonable benchmark. Over the past 75 years stocks have returned around 10%. Now what about football betting? ROI is calculated simply by taking the net winnings or losses and dividing by the amount risked (invested). So, if you put up $110 to win $100 and win the bet, your ROI on that single bet is 90.9% ($100 / $110). So, if you have 100% win rate, your ROI is 90.9% - not too shabby! But, as we know, a more realistic expected win rate over the course of a season is probably in the 50%-65% range. With a 10% vigorish, you need to hit 52.38% to break exactly even – an ROI of 0%. Here’s the ROI at various win rates assuming a 110 risk to win 100: 50%: -4.55% So if we use stocks as a benchmark, you need to hit around 58% to match the benchmark return for stocks (57.6% nets you exactly a 10% return). You probably detected a pattern there as well. Basically, for every 1% increase in win percentage, you can expect a 1.9% increase in ROI. Now, as one of my subscribers (A. Gordon) astutely pointed out last week, most analyses of ROI don’t ever calculate in the cost of a service. The above analysis assumes you invest $110 to win $100. What if you pay for a service as a way to increase your winning percentage? You need to add the cost of the service into the “investment” portion of the ROI calculation. Here’s an example: Let’s assume you play $100 games and invest $500 for a season subscription to a sports service. Let’s also assume you play about five games/week (120 games over the course of a season). Your investment per game has now increased $4.17 per game ($500/120 games). So you are now investing $114.17 to win $100 on each game. To break even now, you need a 54.37% winning percentage (versus 52.38% without a service) and a 59.8% rate to earn a 10% return (versus 57.6%). These calculations vary depending on the amount bet, number of games, and amount of the service. But as you can see, at these levels, if you believe a sports service can increase your winning percentage 2-3%, it makes financial sense to invest in the service. For example, if you paid $500 for a sports service that helped you go from 56% to 59%, the $500 investment in the service would result in additional winnings of $756. If the service helped you go from 56% to 62%, the $500 investment would result in $1512 additional winnings. And, if a sports service could help you turn a losing season (50%) into a winning one (60%), the sports service investment would net you $1920 in winnings versus a $600 loss on your own ($2520 difference). The less the sports service costs relative to the amount you bet, the better these numbers become and vice versa. I hope this helps shed some light on what you can expect to net at various winning percentages with and without a sports service. On to this week’s power ratings and selections…
The Wunderdog Week 12 Selections: ARIZONA +8 OVER OAKLAND Oakland, coming off two emotional nationally-televised games (Denver, New England) as well as a tussle with San Francisco and will struggle to get up for this game. If Arizona can show some of what they did in the first six games of the year when they went 4-2, this game will be close. Prior to their last four games, Arizona was allowing only 15.5 points per game, holding four out of seven opponents to 13 points or less. The Cardinals are due for a bounce-back game while Oakland is due for a letdown. Oakland’s resurgence has been fueled by emotion having played against heated rival Denver and a revenge-laden game against New England (“the tuck”). The Raiders haven’t rushed for 100 yards in six straight games and while Arizona QB Jake Plummer struggles against good passing defenses, the Raiders are mediocre at best (ranked 23rd in passing defense). Home underdogs that have had poor offensive performances two weeks in a row are 59-34 against the spread including 2-0 this year. I like the Cardinals, at home and in need of a win, to keep this one within a touchdown.
This is a pretty even matchup statistically but with the Ravens we are getting points at home with a better defense and a better running game. What more can you ask for? The recent fortunes of these clubs have allowed this line to get out-of-whack as Baltimore should be favored. Baltimore plays former division foe Tennessee very well. The Ravens won both games last year and have held Eddie George to just 36 yards per game over their last six meetings! Despite some success recently, George is still struggling at a meager 3.5 yards per carry. With Ray Lewis back, I expect Baltimore to win this game outright.
I think the Rams will struggle on the road in the cold. They are just 1-4 ATS in their last five away from the dome. If Faulk can’t go as expected, it will only exacerbate the problems. Despite Bulger’s heroics, St. Louis was barely able to scrap out a win against a hobbled Bears team last week. Their luck will run out soon and I expect it to be this week. Home dogs historically perform well against the spread versus teams coming off a close win. Take the Skins.
The Bears will again be without Jim Miller and must rely on Chris Chandler who hasn’t done Jack for Chicago this year. The Bears have lost their last eight in a row but are laying 5.5 points. Statistically this is a pretty even matchup but Detroit has a few strong historical trends pointing their way including a trend favoring visiting dogs against teams that have lost 80% of their games that is 73% ATS including 3-0 last year. The Bears are in a letdown spot following a tough Monday night game and looking ahead to a tough divisional-matchup vs. Green Bay followed by Miami on Monday night. Look for Detroit to sweep the Bears this year and come away with the win.
Seattle is really struggling on offense despite having the second-most accurate passer in the NFC in Hasselbeck (67% completion ratio). Kansas City’s high-octane offense has really slowed in recent weeks, averaging just 16.7 points per game over the last three versus 34.1 per game in their first seven. Priest Holmes should have a big day but Seattle should also find some success against what remains one of the worst defenses in the league. I expect KC to win a close won or maybe even be surprised. Good luck!
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