|
Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions 2002 Weekly NFL Picks Regular
Season Week 11 Welcome to the 2002 Week 11 Wunderdog Paid Subscription NFL Newsletter Week 10 was a wash at 2-2. Yes, I was on New Orleans sitting pretty at 3-1 until a meaningless fumble return for a TD with no ticks on the clock killed the cover. Oh well, sometimes they bounce our way, too. The Wunderdog Matchup Rating Top 5 went 4-1 for the week. For the season, the Wunderdog is now 28-16 (64%). Why do I take the time to post all of my past picks? So you know I am honest about my winning percentage. If you want a good laugh, try asking other services that don’t post picks or use a monitoring service why they don’t do these things. They will provide some pretty funny excuses, such as “monitors are not honest.” When I have gotten that response, I then ask why they don’t at least post their picks on their own website. They don’t have a good answer. They tell me they can get me past results but “it is on another computer so it will take a couple of days.” They don’t have their results handy? Are you kidding me? The real reason that some services don’t post their results is very simple: They don’t want to show you! It is as simple as that! They would rather twist the truth or pick-and-choose successful subsets of data from their overall results (“We were 3-1 last week” or “We are 65% over the last five weeks”). What they don’t tell you is that they are under .500 for the year or they had a losing week last week. If I have a losing week (which does occasionally happen), I will tell you! One particular service that has been around for a long time and charges $325 per month posted an 0-9 week a few weeks ago. They went 11-26 during the month of October! I know this because one of my subscribers paid for that month and told me. Will you see that anywhere on their site? No. Will they tell you that if you inquire about their past results? No. Again, I know this because I personally asked them. Instead they told me they don’t have anyone monitoring their results but that I should use them because (exact quote) “We have been in the business for 30 years and have a respected reputation in this industry.” Hmmm. Don’t fall for it. If a service isn’t willing to at least post their past picks on their website, they are hiding something. Even if you believe that some independent sports monitoring services aren’t honest, a great way to verify past results is to post them on your website. This way, those that actually purchased the picks the week before will keep the service honest (they can verify whether those posted on the website match what they purchased). It is the perfect way to verify that the validity of a service’s claimed win percentage. Even better is to use a sports monitoring service that is honest. One of those is the one I use, Free Sports Monitor. It is honest because the handicappers like me pay nothing to participate. So, I can’t pay for a higher ranking. They make money via advertising. In any case, you will always see the results of my picks both on my website and on Free Sports Monitor. They will always match up. And anyone who pays for my selections will be able to verify that the results I post on my site exactly match what they got before the games were played when they paid for the selections. I have a dream: If we all start demanding this type of open disclosure from sports services, eventually everyone will have to do it. Don’t settle for anything less from someone you are giving your hard-earned money to. Speaking of winning percentages, a question came up this week regarding how good is 64%? As we know, 52.8% is required to break even and anything above that is profit. But how much better than 52.8% is required for a “worthy” return? Well, that all depends on what you consider worthy. Next week’s newsletter will explore this concept. For now, think about what is a good ROI (Return on Investment) for you. For comparison purposes, we know that the historical average return for common stocks over the past 75 years has been around 10%. Next week I will talk about how certain winning percentages equate to ROI percentages. The Week 11
Matchup Power Ratings are posted. As a reminder, these
ratings highlight for you the games in which the
lines-makers have set the line incorrectly, based on the
statistical performance of the teams. This can be for good
reasons (i.e. injuries) or bad reasons (the public’s
perception is way off).
SEATTLE +5 OVER DENVER No one can seem to explain why Denver got spanked by Oakland on Monday night. Do they just choke in big games? Did Oakland just figure out how to win again? Were the Broncos just off for a night? No one, including Denver players and coaches, seems to know and that isn’t good for the Ponies. Meanwhile, Seattle cruised to a surprise win over Arizona last week and is riding a wave of newfound confidence. Denver spent a lot of emotion last week, leaving little left over for this week against a disappointing Seattle team. This isn’t even a divisional matchup for Denver anymore. They are still thinking more about last week’s loss to the hated Raiders (again under the national spotlight) than about this week’s opponent. Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck found his rhythm last week. He isn’t going to kill you deep but if he watched the Denver/Oakland game, he noticed how the Broncos struggled big-time against the short passes. Seattle’s defense (13th in the league) is better than Denver’s (21st in the league) and the Hawks’ passing D is 7th in the league. Seattle has several strong situational trends supporting a cover this week including two that favor home teams that are 32-7 and 23-4, respectively, against the spread. My statistical analysis and power ratings tell me that Denver should only be favored by a point or two. Although Denver is the better team, Seattle should keep this close enough to cover and could surprise everyone with a win.
Let us not forget how poorly Indianapolis has played this year. They are 2-7 against the spread. The lines-makers and pubic were starting to figure out that this team was overrated but with last week’s big win, they are overrated again. Dallas’ defense is tough and improving. They have given up just 17.2 points per game (11.7 over the last three games). The problem has been their offense. The bye week came at a good time for the Cowboys and the extra time should help the offense work out some of their problems. Don’t expect Mungro to do too much against this stingy defense. Teams coming off 3 straight losses and a bye are an incredible 87% against the spread and I expect Dallas to stay close or win outright.
In terms of this game, it is good that they lost or they might not be an underdog this Sunday against the Niners. Now the Chargers get a home game at a time they really need one. The Chargers can run the ball better than the Niners and defend it better (San Diego is second in the league in rushing defense). Running back LaDainian Tomlinson challenged his team this week saying “Obviously we don’t have the kind of heart that a lot of people think we have.” I expect this statement to positively motivate a team that desperately wants to avoid the collapse they experienced last year. San Francisco is a little cocky right now after two wins against good teams and I believe is showing signs of believing their own press. Last week in taking the Chargers I said I was ecstatic about getting six points with a potential SuperBowl team. This week getting nearly a field goal at home is equally reason to rejoice! Good luck!
Get this week's free newsletter click here: Free NFL Picks To get Wunderdog's Top Picks Click Here Click here for the Matchup Power Ratings |