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Wunderdog NFL Picks and Pro Football Predictions 2002 Weekly NFL Picks Regular
Season Week 10 Welcome to the 2002 Week 10 Wunderdog Paid Subscription NFL Newsletter Week 9 was another winning week with a 3-2 showing, making it 8 out of 10 winning weeks for the 2002 season. Dallas, Chicago and Washington were winners while Jacksonville and Arizona didn’t cover. For the season, the Wunderdog is now 26-14 (65%). Here’s an interesting statistic for those who care. How are teams doing this year when they have a 100 yard rusher or a 300 yard passer? Early in the year, the league’s winning teams were pass-happy, indicating that maybe the conventional wisdom of “rushing wins championships” was changing (think New England and Oakland who started 3-0 and 4-0, respectively, while passing the lights out). Well, reality has set in. Things have returned to normal as teams with a 300-yard passer are now just 21-20 on the year while teams with a 100-yard rusher are 49-16. Keep this in mind as you handicap this week’s games. The Week 10
Matchup Power Ratings have been updated and improved.
As a reminder, these ratings highlight for you
the games in which the linesmakers have set the line incorrectly,
based on the statistical performance of the teams. This
can be for good reasons (i.e. injuries) or bad reasons
(the public’s perception is way off). Wunderdog has
found some that are due to public misperception which we
will take advantage of in our picks.
SAN DIEGO +6 OVER ST. LOUIS The Chargers bring the 4th best rushing defense in the league into this game and they will need it against the revived Marshall Faulk. San Diego will be ready to atone for such a horrible week 9 showing. Believe that Marty Schottenheimer is preparing his team to avoid another embarrassing defeat. Underdogs following an embarrassing loss as a big favorite are 65% against the spread in the following week. Although the Rams are playing like the Rams of old, I think six points is just too much for a game in which San Diego could easily win outright. I don’t think St. Louis will be able to sustain the level of play they have demonstrated for a fourth straight week. Go Chaagahs!
What is quickly forgotten is how poorly the Giants have played prior to last week. The G-Men rank close to worst in the league in points scored. They have scored 13 or fewer points in five of their eight games this year and their red zone offense is pathetic (worst in the league). They are also 5-12-2 against the spread in their last 19 dating back to last year. Also forgotten by many people is the fact that the Vikings have an explosive and dangerous offense that is ranked second in the league in total yards. The problem has been 19 turnovers by Daunte Culpepper. If he can avoid the turnovers, the Vikings will win this one easily. Minnesota can run the ball (third in the league in yards per rush) while the Giants struggle to stop it (26th in the league in yards per rush given up). There’s enough here to see Minnesota notching the win, especially at home.
Chicago’s defense is getting back on track and finally learning how to play with their injuries. They held one of the league’s top teams and Donovan McNabb to just 19 points last week and were inches away from pulling out the victory at the end of the game. The Bears are a different team, psychologically, with Miller who somehow seems to give them a chance to win in most games. If Miller can go, I expect Chicago to stay close at home. The Patriots have realized they need to run the ball to have success as demonstrated by Antowain Smith’s 100+ yard game last week. The Bears, despite having not performed well defensively, have shown the ability to stop the run (they are ranked 7th in the league in yards allowed per carry at just 3.9). I expect the Chicago D and Brian Urlacher to continue their improvement this week. The Bears also qualify for a 49-17 underdog situation and home dogs off four or more consecutive losses are 64% against the spread. Another “contrary” pick I admit, but it worked with Chicago last week!
As if it weren’t a theme this week, we again see the linesmakers and public overreacting to the recent past. A big loss as favorite for the Texans last week and three straight wins by the Titans. The Texans have covered their last two contests when getting 10 or more points. Even lowly expansion teams have pride and they will be eager to make amends for a poor game last week against the hapless Bengals (who not surprisingly took advantage of the one real shot they had at winning a game so far this year). Texan WR Corey Bradford said it best this week: “It was like going home to your mommy and telling her you got a bad report card." Expect Houston to play hard this week. Finally, don’t be surprised if Tennessee takes the Texans lightly in this game and find themselves in a tight one. If the stars align, Houston could even pull the upset!
The Panthers still have the league’s second stingiest defense, holding opponents to just 14.6 points per game. Their offense, with Peete in the lineup, should show marked improvement over the 7.3 points per game the Panthers were able to put up without him at the helm. Look for the Panthers to bottle up the Duece and make New Orleans win through the air. The Panthers’ linebackers are the fastest in the league and are capable of not only containing the Saints’ running game but keeping Aaron Brooks in check. If Carolina’s defense can continue its dominance, Peete can put up the 21 or so points needed to win this game against a bad Saints defense (25th in the league in points allowed). The Panthers also qualify for a home underdog situation that is 85-42 against the spread. Good luck!
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