Wunderdog's
NFL PICK OF THE WEEK
2003/4
SuperBowl
NEW ENGLAND/CAROLINA
OVER 38
While I usually don’t pick a lot of Totals,
I have an opinion in this game. I’ll admit it isn’t
based on a super-thorough analysis but rather on a few
key trends and a strong gut feel. This over/under is extremely
low at 38.
Consider these
stats:
-If one of the Super Bowl teams enters the game having
allowed 14 or fewer points in two straight games, the
total in the Super Bowl goes OVER 85% of the time.
-The Patriots are 7-1 OVER this season after allowing
14 or fewer points in their previous game.
Both of these trends are based on the fact that the public
tends to overreact to recent performance. Since these defenses
are so strong (and the offenses so average), the game must
go UNDER, right? I say the Total in this game is artificially
low and you are getting a lot of value to take the OVER.
In addition:
-In the last 18 Super Bowls, 12 (67%) have gone OVER
-14 of the last 21 Super Bowls played on grass (67%) have
gone OVER (games on turf have gone 10-5 UNDER)
-The last time the Total was under 40 was in 2001 when
Baltimore and New York scored 41 points to easily go OVER
the 33 point Total. Since 1980, of the 5 Super Bowls in
which the Total was under 40, four went OVER. The one that
did not missed by just 1/2 a point.
...THE DOG SAYS: Take OVER 38 points
RESULT:
New England 32, Carolina 29 - OVER
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