Wunderdog's NFL PICK OF THE WEEK

2003 Semi-Finals Weekend

GREEN BAY +5.5 at PHILADELPHIA (Sunday 4:45PM Eastern)
Is this Packer team a team of destiny? I do think they’ve got something special going on right now and I wouldn’t want to face them. They didn’t cover last week but they won their sixth straight. This week they have a legitimate shot at winning a tough road playoff game. Yes, I know how tough it is to win on the road in this round of the playoffs. It takes a lot for me to recommend a road team. The Eagles, however, are just 5-3 at home this year. The only team they beat at Lincoln Field with a winning record was the Cowboys. I’m just not sold on this Philadelphia team like a lot of other people. Philadelphia is the proud owner of two interesting stats that none of the other seven teams playing this week can claim (or would want to). Did you know that Philadelphia actually gave up more yards than they gained this year? Did you know that Philly’s defense allows a higher pass completion percentage than their offense achieves? Their defense is ranked 20th in the league and that smells like success for the Packers who have one of the best QBs of all time and one of the best running backs in the game. On top of that, this team is HOT-HOT-HOT. The last time these two teams met in week 10, Green Bay’s Ahman Green racked up 192 yards on the ground. It takes a lot for me to go against a home team in this round of the playoffs but getting 5.5 with the #3 rushing offense against the 22nd ranked rushing defense goes a long way toward changing my mind. Green Bay qualifies for a trend involving teams who had a lot of blow-out wins in the regular season vs. teams that did not. This trend is 30-13 (70%) over the past decade and went 4-0 last year.

Wunderdog’s systems and trends for this game:
+Semi-finals system #1 (36-9 ATS): Picks Packers
+Semi-finals system #2 (7-0 ATS): No Pick
+ Matchup Power Ratings: Picks Packers
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Packers:
---2 trends with 70%-79% ATS record
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Eagles:
---2 trends with 60%-69% ATS record

...THE DOG SAYS: Take Green Bay +5.5

RESULT: Green Bay 17, Seattle 20

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