Wunderdog's NFL PICK OF THE WEEK

2003 Regular Season Week 10

Jacksonville +6 over Indianapolis (at Jacksonville - 1:00PM Eastern)
7-1 against 1-7. Should be a blowout, right? While it’s hard to put my finger (paw) on why, I have a feeling it won’t be. Indianapolis really couldn’t be playing any better. Last week they reached their 2003 pinnacle by beating heated rival Miami on the road. They’re winning by an average of 11 points per game and based on stats alone, this spread should probably be about 8 or 9 points (give Jacksonville 3 for home-field). But, statistics alone do not decide football games. Indianapolis is due for a fall - overdue. I’ve said it before: it is extremely difficult for teams to perform at the very top of their game for many weeks on end. At some point, they stop to take a breath and suffer a letdown. What better time to take a breath than after last week’s high-impact emotional game when you’re facing a 1-7 laugher this week? The Colts seem to have slipped into believing their own press. The comments of players and coaches this week seem to imply “yeah, we’re great and we know it.” Jacksonville is a team that has found ways to lose games they could have won. Their defense is actually pretty good (ranked 9th in the league). Last week they held league-leading running back Jamal Lewis to just 68 yards and out-gained the Ravens 320-259 yards. But, they found a way to lose as they have done many times this year. At some point, Jacksonville will put together a good game and surprise someone. I believe this is the week.

PLAYS: Take Jacksonville +6 and straight-up to win

RESULT: Jacksonville 28, Indianapolis 23

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