Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee got a win in Game 5 to trim Indiana's lead in the series, but now the Pacers can close it out at home. The Bucks are still without Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Damian Lillard is doubtful. Indiana is 46-38-3 ATS this season and Milwaukee is 17-25 ATS on the road. The Pacers have alternated ATS wins and losses their past 10 games and they have won seven home games in a row with a 5-2 ATS mark. The Bucks shot 52 percent on Tuesday and the game still stayed UNDER by 11 points. Indiana is 9-3 UNDER its past 12 games as a favorite and 25-12 UNDER overall its past 37 first round games. Dating back to the 2021-22 season, the Bucks are 77-53 UNDER in the first-half in road games including 34-21 UNDER forllowing a win. The Pacers are 16-5-2 ATS following a loss and and 7-1 ATS after losing by 10-plus points. Indiana is 34-16-1 ATS following an ATS loss. Take the Pacers (Max Play), the first-half UNDER, and the full-game UNDER.

A bounce-back spot for the desperate home team? The zig-zag theory won't work if the team in revenge mode doesn't have its best players. Milwaukee has lost three in a row to the Pacers, 125-108, 121-118, and 126-113. Star Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.4 ppg, 11.5 rpg) is battling a calf injury and is unlikely to play. Chris Livingston is out and Damian Lillard (24.3 ppg) strained his Achilles in Game 3 and missed Game 4, on the sidelines with a walking boot. Khris Middleton (15.1 ppg) is playing despite spraining both ankles in this series. The Bucks are 19-34 ATS as an underdog. Uptempo Indiana led the NBA in scoring (123.3 ppg) and is playing confident and healthy. The Pacers are 26-12 ATS versus teams that average 116+ points, plus 40-25 ATS after playing two straight home contests. Expect a slower start from both teams. Indiana has dropped over six points per game from their first-half scoring during the playoffs. Milwaukee has shaved seven points per game from their first-half average. Dating back to last season, the Bucks are 19-9 UNDER in the first half at home vs. teams like Indiana that make 48%+ from the field. Take the first-half UNDER and play Indiana.  

Just one of those years where a talented team gets wrecked by bad luck and injuries. Milwaukee has lost the last two games, 125-108 and 121-118. Star Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.4 ppg, 11.5 rpg) is battling a calf injury and is unlikely to play. Chris Livingston is out, Damian Lillard (24.3 ppg) strained his Achilles in Game 3 and is unlikely to play, while Khris Middleton (15.1 ppg) will try to play despite a right ankle sprain. The Bucks are 19-33 ATS as an underdog, including 8-20 ATS as a road dog. They face an attacking Indiana offense that led the NBA in scoring (123.3 ppg) and is healthy. The Pacers are 22-14 ATS versus defenses that allow 116+ points per game, 29-15 ATS when playing just their second game in five days, and 27-11 ATS after a game where they failed to cover. Play Indiana.  

Combine the Pacers (-238) and the Mavericks (-179) into a 2-team parlay at +121 odds.

Indiana is short on two areas needed during the playoffs: defense and road play. During the regular season, the Pacers were strong at home but just one game over .500 on the road. The defense was 27th in points surrendered (120.2 points per game) and last in field goal shooting allowed (.49.6%). NBA road underdogs (or pick) in Game 2 of a playoff series are 11-32 ATS. Milwaukee is Top 10 in 3-point defense and that defense improved significantly when a coaching change was made, bringing in Doc Rivers in January. The offense was fourth in scoring and ninth from long range. The Bucks are 33-11 straight up at home, but second-best home record in the Eastern Conference. They rolled in Game 1, 109-94, holding the Pacers to 39.6% shooting. Milwaukee is 23-12 ATS the past two years as home chalk of 6 points or less (or pick 'em), 19-8 ATS at home against teams that shoot 48%+ plus from the field, and 10-1 ATS when playing four or fewer games in 10 days. Take Milwaukee as a Max Play.