The
Wunderdog NFL Matchup Power Ratings
What
are they?
The Matchup Power Ratings, published each week in
my newsletter, highlight
for you the games in which the lines-makers have set the
line
incorrectly,
based on the statistical performances of the teams season-to-date.
REMEMBER:
These ratings do not account for injuries,
motivation, or historical trends. Rather, they are 100%
driven
by the statistical
performances of the two teams season-to-date. As a result,
I will play against the ratings due to these other very
important factors. I suggest you use these as one of the
tools in your handicapping arsenal.
How
do I use them?
Here's a sample
of three Matchup Power Ratings and how to use them:
Underrated Team |
By |
Overrated Team |
Dallas |
4.5 |
Oakland |
Washington |
3.1 |
St. Louis |
Pittsburgh |
2.8 |
Philadelphia |
To
estimate the correct statistical line
for the game, simply subtract the number above
from
the underrated team’s
Vegas line.
Example
1: Underrated team is a favorite
Let's
assume Dallas is a 4 point favorite (-4). We subtract 4.5 from -4 which results
in -8.5.
According to statistics, Dallas should be favored
by 8.5, making them a value at only minus 4.5.
Example
2: Underrated team is a dog
Now let's
assume that Washington is 6 point underdog (+6). We subtract 3.1 from from
6 which results in 2.9. According to the stats, Washington should really be roughly
a 3-point underdog. Since we are getting 6 points from Vegas, they are a good
value.
Example
3: Underrated team is a small dog
The final example will assume
that Pittsburgh is a 1.5 point underdog in Vegas. We subtract 2.8 from
1.5 which results in -1.3. So, they really should be laying points but
in betting them, we'll be getting points.
In the end, just remember that the Underrated Team is a value and:
A. Should
be getting fewer points than they are if they are a dog
B. Should be laying more points if they are a favorite
Both cases tell us that the underrated team should be
considered as a bet, based on statistical performances to-date. Again, make
sure you don't just blindly play these but rather use this a one tool in your
arsenal.
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