College Basketball Picks 2009: Top 25-16

25. UCLA
The Bruins’ program has undergone a resurrgence over the last four years as they have won a total of 123 games, or just about 31 a season. They lost a lot of key players, but won’t drop off the face of the earth this season. While Cal and Washington should battle for the top spot in the Pac-10, UCLA is stil a cut above the rest. The Bruins have reloaded with a lot of future NBA players. Mike Moser and Tyler Honeycutt will give the Bruins a pair of forwards that can play – just need experience. The Bruins, under coach Holland, are going to get after it on defense -
that is a sure thing, and if the young players provide some offensive punch, the Bruins will be knocking on the door of the top 25.

24. MARYLAND
Maryland held its breath as Greivis Vasquez worked out for 25 NBA teams and then withdrew, meaning he will return to Maryland. Last season he became only the sixth ACC player ever to lead his team in points scored, rebounds and assists, while cutting his turnovers down from 149 to 98. Eric Hayes is the long distance connection, and the Terps have Landon Milbourne in the middle to form a tough trio of players. Despite the talent, the Terps need one of the Freshmen to step up and supply some scoring inside and some board help. The ACC is loaded, so they may be a top 25 team, but might only be the fifth-best team in the conference.

23. DAYTON
Dayton came out of nowhere a season ago to finish 27-8. They return four starters from that team as well as 10 of  their 11 top scorers. Dayton won its NCAA Tournament opener against Big East West Virginia. Chris Wright had a lot to do with that, pouring in 27 points and grabbing 10 boards. The Flyers are 41-10 with him in the lineup and he had 54 dunks last year. The Flyers established a top-notch homecourt finishing at 18-0, now they have to learn to win on the road. The Flyers could be better if they can knock down some threes as they finished at just 32.8% a year ago, No. 11 in the A-10, and improve upon their FT percentage. This team could find its way higher in the rankings if those things happen.

22. MICHIGAN
John Beilein had a system at West Virginia that proved to be a winner. He is now into his third year at Michigan with Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. It’s been a long time for Michigan to get back into the limelight, and they are getting closer, but they could use a big man under the hoop. The maturation of Freshman PG Darius Morris will be the key to this team. If he struggles, so will the Wolverines. If he comes in and does what they think he can, this team will crack the top 25, but they aren’t quite ready to bang with the elite just yet.

21. SIENA
Siena is heads and heels better than any MAAC team, has been to the big dance two straight seasons, and will attempt to become only the second to make it three straight, along with now departed LaSalle. The Saints return four starters, along with Clearance Jackson who was Sixth Man of the year in the MAAC, so they have a lot of experience and talent. They have quality depth, and after the first semester will add more when LaSalle transfer Kyle Griffin becomes eligible. The Saints were a 27-win team a year ago, and should equal or exceed that this season.

20.  NOTRE DAME
Last year the Big East was loaded with great teams. This season there are still a lot of top teams, and Notre Dame could break into that group, especially with the return of Luke Harongody. A six-game losing streak near the beginning of the Big East season really tore the soul out of this team. They add Ben Hansbrough (Tyler’s brother) as he transferred from Mississippi State. They also add another experienced player in Scott Martin over from Purdue, so the Irish have the pieces. The offense was big last year, but it will all come down to their commitment on the other end that will determine their fate.

19.  OHIO STATE
It seems like the Buckeyes have a never-ending supply of big men and another has arrived in seven-footer Zisis Sarikpoulos. An injury-plagued season set the Buckeyes back to 22-11 a year ago, and first-round exit in the tournament. They will have perhaps the best tandem of forwards in the Big-10 with Evan Turner and a healed David Lighty. The Buckeyes have a lot of perimeter firepower, and if they get anything out of the latest big-man in the middle, the Buckeyes will climb.

18. CLEMSON
Oliver Purnell has put Clemson basketball back on the map. The Tigers made the NCAA tournament back-to-back years, and will likely add a third appearance this season. Purnell has brought in a top-25 recruiting class led by McDonald’s All-American Milton jennings – the first McDonald’s All-American to come to Clemson in 18 years. Clemson will again be a force inside, but it will all come down to their Achillies heel. Last season the Tigers had just 23 more assists than turnovers and if they don’t get that fixed, what they have inside won’t get them to this level.

17. CONNECTICUT
The Huskies missed an opportunity to hang a third National Championship banner last season, and perhaps Jerome Dyson had something to do with that. Dyson suffered a season-ending knee injury and was missing in the tournament. Now with a lot of key departures, the Huskies still have a lot of talent, but are just down in experience. Stanley Robinson may be the most athletic player in the country. Towards the end of the season, he finally began playing like it. Dyson and Walker form a top backcourt duo with a lot of speed and Coach Calhoun has some very promising newcomers, especially Ater Majok who flirted with the NBA draft, but will be the next big man to head to the NBA from UConn. If the younger players, and they are good ones, can adapt to the Calhoun system, the Huskies will be dangerous come March.

16. GEORGETOWN
Georgetown has found its way back to the top 25, and this year’s team certainly has that potential and more. The Hoyas have a three-player nucleus as good as anyone in the Big East with Greg Monroe, Austin Freeman and Chris Wright. Hollis Thompson, out of LA, is the best of the incoming class and if he comes as advertised, the Hoyas will have a top-level player. The Big East is down some from a year ago, so the Hoyas are poised to make a run.

Tags: Cavs predictions against the spread, NBA Picks 2010

A couple of weeks ago I wrote an article questioning the existence of parity in the NFL this season. In that article, I stated that through the first five weeks of the NFL season, underdogs had been really struggling to cover the spread. I wondered aloud whether 2009 would turn out to be another 2005 (the worst year ever for underdogs – hitting 42% for the year).

Two weeks have transpired since then. Week 6 was a revenge week for the dogs as they went 9-5 ATS. But, as quickly as they gained some ground, they lost it and more the next week. Week 7 was one for the record books as just two underdogs covered the spread. That is truly unprecedented! Even in the original year-of-the-favorite (2005) when underdogs had their worst year, there was never a week where fewer than three underdogs covered.

The average margin of victory last week was 20.3 points per game. We saw six teams win by 28 or more points!

As they did in 2005, the sportsbooks have been getting absolutely hammered this year. The general public loves favorites and especially loves betting on the good or great teams vs. the awful teams. Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay, who has been in the business for 22 years said of last week, “No doubt, it was the worst day ever for the books.”

This year is most definitely a year of the have’s and the have-nots. Kornegay said this week, “I can’t remember an NFL season with this many bad teams.” The worst of the worst continue to lose against the spread, no matter how many points they are handed. How bad is it for the bad teams this year? The Buccaneers, Rams, Browns, Chiefs and Raiders are a combined 4-31 straight-up and 11-24 against the number!

The number of double-digit favorites this season is also on pace to break records. Over the past decade, we usually see somewhere between 20 and 30 double-digit favorites per year. So far in 2009, we’ve already seen 21.

Here are the updated numbers through seven weeks in 2009:

• Underdogs all sizes: 45% ATS
• Underdogs of 7+ points: 39%
• Underdogs of 9.5+ points: 35%
• Underdogs of 10.5+ points: 27%

So the question remains… Will this season continue down this very unique path, with favorites covering any number thrown their way? Or will the underdogs make a comeback? It could be that given the unique disparity in team strength this season, the favorites will continue to roll. Or, we could see the books adjust more, forcing teams to lay 17 or more points in games, and that is likely to result in dogs finally having their day.

A colleague of mine pointed out something very interesting this week. What we are seeing this year, in essence, is something we saw with one team back in 2007. The 2007 Patriots were simply on a tear through the first half of the season. It didn’t matter how many points the underdog had in the game. Through their first ten games, the Pats covered spreads of -7.5, -16.5, -16.5, -16.5 and -16. They were simply that good. But before you go lay your whole bankroll on big favorites the rest of this season, remember how the Pats finished that year. They faced lines of -22, -19, -10.5, -24, -21.5 and -13.5 in their final six games. Their ATS record in those games? 1-5. In the playoffs, they were favored by -13, -14 and -12. They lost all three of those, finishing the season on a 1-8 ATS run. Food for thought…

Tags: Cavs predictions against the spread, NBA Picks 2010

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. Los Angeles Clippers
3. Phoenix
4. Golden State
5. Sacramento

LOS ANGELES LAKERS
COACH: PHIL JACKSON
LAST YEAR: 65-17
BEST ADDITION: F RON ARTEST
BIGGEST LOSS: F TREVOR ARIZA
 

OUTLOOK
The Lakers won it all, and what do they do? They go out and add Ron Artest to the mix. Artest is a top defensive player and can score as well. If the Lakers aren’t fat cats after winning last year, they certainly will be every bit as good as a year ago, if not better. If the hunger is still there, this team stands a good chance to win again.
 

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
COACH: MIKE DUNLEAVY SR.
LAST YEAR: 19-63
BEST ADDITION: F BLAKE GRIFFIN
BIGGEST LOSS: F ZACH RANDOLPH
 

OUTLOOK:
This team has a lot of holes, and Zach Randolph is gone as he was a very good player, but considered a cancer. He will be replaced by Blake Griffin who could put up similar numbers, but a much different work ethic and attitude, which is a gain. This team has a long way to go, and Griffin is a nice player and may help down the road, but there just isn’t enough talent here to be much better than a year ago.
 

PHOENIX
COACH: ALVIN GENTRY
LAST YEAR: 46-36
BEST ADDITION: C/F CHANNING FRYE
BIGGEST LOSS: SHAQUILLE ONEAL
 

OUTLOOK
The Suns brought in Shaq to try to push them over the top, but their style is just not suited for what Shaq brings to the court. They will go with Channing Frye in the middle and he has a world of potential, but just never seems to bring it, and maybe the running style here triggers something. Shaq’s departure should help Amare Stoudamire as he will own the paint again. The Suns look like a team that if they somehow get Frye to step up, could produce a 50-win season.

GOLDEN STATE
COACH: DON NELSON
LAST YEAR: 29-53
BEST ADDITION: G STEPON CURRY
BIGGEST LOSS: G JAMAL CRAWFORD
 

OUTLOOK
Don Nelson loves the run-and-gun, up-tempo game. Although that makes for entertaining basketball, it isn’t producing wins, and nothing was added here to make me feel that this team will be any better. Stepon Curry fits in nicely to an offensive style as he can really shoot, but so could Jamal Crawford, so they’re just replacing one scorer for another. If they stay healthier they might add a few wins, but I don’t see them making the playoffs with this group.
 

SACRAMENTO
COACH: PAUL WESTPHAL
LAST YEAR: 17-65
BEST ADDITION: G TYREKE EVANS
BIGGEST LOSS: NONE
 

OUTLOOK
The Kings have all the parts back from a poor team, so they should at least improve from that alone. Tyreke Evans will run the offense and he could be a good one, although not a natural PG, he is big and will be able to get in the lane and cause problems, something missing from the Kings a year ago. Overall, maybe more is expected, but there is still not enough talent here to threaten for a playoff berth. Top upside is 25-30 wins.

Tags: Cavs predictions against the spread, NBA Picks 2010

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

NORTHWEST
1. Portland
2. Denver
3. Utah
4. Oklahoma City
5. Minnesota 

PORTLAND
COACH: NATE McMILLAN
LAST YEAR: 54-28
BEST ADDITION: G ANDRE MILLER
BIGGEST LOSS: C/F CHANNING FRYE
 

OUTLOOK:
The Blazers turned the corner last year and are definately heading in the right direction. They return their key players, starters and bench. They have added Andre Miller who is very steady at the point, although he can’t play mega minutes anymore. Their top players are gaining experience, and getting better. If that continues, this team could advance over 55 wins this season, and at least a mild threat in the playoffs.

DENVER
COACH: GEORGE KARL
LAST YEAR: 54-28
BEST ADDITION: G TY LAWSON
BIGGEST LOSS: G DAHNTAY JONES
 

OUTLOOK:
The Nuggets made great strides last season. The offense is solid, and they get good complimentray minutes off the bench. The problem is that the playoffs are about defense, and they can only get so far with their high-octane offense. Billups had his minutes held down, and he asked for more of the same, so they need Ty Lawson to stay healthy and contribute. This looks like a 50-win team again, but may slip a few games from a year ago.

UTAH
COACH: JERRY SLOAN
LAST YEAR: 48-34
BEST ADDITION:
G ERIC MAYNOR
BIGGEST LOSS: NONE
 

OUTLOOK
The Jazz decided to stay pat and bring back the same team. There is a potential that they have issues with Carlos Boozer who swore he would opt out of his contract, but a bad market made him decide to stay. It is likely he will be traded at some point, so this is a hard team to gauge right now, depending on how hard Boozer plays, and if/when the Jazz trade him. Until then the 48 wins they put up a year ago are certainly in reach, up or down depends on Boozer, or who they get for him. Stay tuned!
 

OKLAHOMA CITY
COACH: SCOTT BROOKS
LAST YEAR: 23-59
BEST ADDITION: G JAMES HARDEN
BIGGEST LOSS: F/G DAMIEN WILKENS
 

OUTLOOK:
The Thunder have a good young core of players with Westbrook, Green and Durrant, and the addition of James Harden should help. They appear to heading in the right direction, and they just need a lot more experience. Their biggest problem is that the dropoff is severe after their core players, and the team depth definetly isn’t there, and as injuries occur, they struggle. They could make it to 30 wins this year, but they are not a playoff team yet.

MINNESOTA
COACH: KURT RAMBIS
LAST YEAR: 24-58
BEST ADDTION: G JOHNY FLYNN
BIGGEST LOSS: F/G MIKE MILLER
 

OUTLOOK:
The Timberwolves had some big draft picks and surprisingly took all guards. This roster is going to potentially have seven new players – never a good thing in the short run. The Wolves have been rebuilding since the departure of Garnett, and three years later, they seem to be starting all over again. Jeferson is back and healthy and should be good for a few wins, but this team still has a long way to go.

Tags: Cavs predictions against the spread, NBA Picks 2010

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
1. SAN ANTONIO
2. NEW ORLEANS
3. DALLAS
4. HOUSTON
5. MEMPHIS

SAN ANTONIO
COACH: GREGG POPOVICH
LAST SEASON: 54-28
BEST ADDITION: F RICHARD JEFFERSON
BIGGEST LOSS: F DREW GOODEN

OUTLOOK:
The Spurs needed another scorer, and Richard Jefferson will be interesting. He may miss some games early with a thumb injury, but it will be interesting to see how he fits here. One day the Spurs will take the floor without Tim Duncan, and although he can’t take on 40 minutes a night anymore, he makes them dangerous come playoff time. The Spurs seem to always find a way to win 50+, and this year should be no different.

NEW ORLEANS
COACH: BYRON SCOTT
LAST SEASON: 49-33
BEST ADD: C OMEKA OKAFOR
BIGGEST LOSS: C TYSON CHANDLER
 

OUTLOOK:
I think the Hornets made a great trade bringing Okafor in. It gives the Hornets a big body and a proven rebounder to bang with the bigs in the west. They have a rising star in Chris Paul at the point and a lot of new faces, but if everything gels for the Hornets they could definetly step up and win 50+ and I expect that they will.

DALLAS
COACH: RICK CARLISLE
LAST YEAR: 50-32
BEST ADDITION: F SHAWN MARION
BIGGEST LOSS: G JERRY STACKHOUSE
 

OUTLOOK:
The Mavs, with the addition of Shawn Marion, have a pair of forwards that can each produce 20+ points per night and a PG in Jason Kidd that can get them the ball in the right places. I think that the Mavs know that if they are going to win, it will have to be now, with Nowitski and Kidd not getting any younger, so Marion is that key third player to help put them over the top. The competion is strong in their division, so will it be enough? I tend to think it will not.
 

HOUSTON
COACH: RICK ADELMAN
LAST YEAR: 53-29
BEST ADDITION: F TREVOR ARIZA
BIGGEST LOSS: F RON ARTEST
 

OUTLOOK:
The Rockets coldn’t win with Artest, so they went in a different direction and traded for Ariza. The Rockets, however, face bigger issues. T-Mac is coming off of surgery and has simply shown that he can’t stand up to the rigors of the NBA and is often unmotivated. Yao Ming has said that he will not return this year from his foot injury - and maybe not ever. That will put Houston in a serious rebuilding mode, and a falloff is likely from their 53 wins a year ago.
 

MEMPHIS
COACH: LIONEL HOLLINS
LAST YEAR: 24-58
BEST ADDITION: F ZACH RANDOLPH
BIGGEST LOSS: F HAKEEM WARRICK
 

OUTLOOK:
The Grizzlies took a gamble and signed Allan Iverson, but I’m not sure how much that will help. They have Thabeet coming in an offering defense inside, but he is going to take time to develop. Randolph has a lot of ability, but is a mal-content, and with him and Iverson competing for bad news, the chemistry on this team becomes a bigger issue. Long way to go, and no playoffs once again.
 

Tags: Cavs predictions against the spread, NBA Picks 2010