Predicted Order of Finish
1. St. Louis
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros

St. Louis (90-72 in 2011) – Are the defending champs in for a fall without Albert? Pujols is gone, along with manager Tony LaRussa. However, they get back ace Adam Wainwright, who missed 2011 for Tommy John surgery. It’s tough to find fault with an offense that was so strong last summer, fifth in batting average and runs scored, third in on-base percentage and sixth in slugging.

Even without Pujols they still have 1B slugger Lance Berkman (34 HRs, .301, 94 RBI), postseason hero 3B David Freese (10 HRs, .297, World Series MVP) and catcher Yadier Molina (14 HRs, .305) to provide an offensive punch. 2B Daniel Descalso (.264) would be better in a platoon role, while 34-year old SS Rafael Furcal is far past his prime. In 2011, he posted a career-worst .231 batting average.

At least the outfield has more pop with 32-year old LF Matt Holliday (22 HRs, 75 RBI, .296), who had a strong season despite injuries and missing games. He played in just 124 games and had a solid .388 OBP. CF Jon Jay (.297) had 24 doubles, ten homers, and the Cardinals add 34-year old RF Carlos Beltran (.300, 22 HRs), who had a fine season with the Mets getting 520 at bats and 84 RBI. Beltran actually had a better on-base percentage than Pujols in 2011 (.385-.366), so this lineup looks like one of the best in the NL.

Three of La Russa’s longtime coaches also departed, including highly regarded pitching coach Dave Duncan. New pitching coach Derek Lilliquist gets to see the comeback of 6-foot-7 Adam Wainwright, one of the NL’s top starters from 2009-10. Wainwright went 20-11 with 2.42 ERA in 2010. Veteran 36-year old righty Chris Carpenter (11-9, 237 IP, 3.45 ERA) was a postseason hero and workhorse. He went 12-2 with a 3.01 ERA during the rest of the regular season and postseason but is battling a nerve condition to start this season.

Righty Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA) was a big surprise, staying healthy and walking just 42 in 188 innings, while lefty Jaime Garcia won 13 games for the second straight season and reduced his walk rate (2.3) by more than one per nine innings. Veteran Jake Westbrook (4.66) is penciled in, but has marginal staff and opponents hit .290 off him.

LaRussa and Duncan were masters at utilizing bullpen depth and they leave the new coaching staff with a ton of reliable arms with closer Jason Motte (2.25 ERA, 9 saves, 18 holds), Fernando Salas (24 saves, 2.28), Lance Lynn (3.12), Eduardo Sanchez and Kyle McClellan (12-7, 141 IP). Rookie Shelby Miller is from Texas and has a terrific fastball in this deep far system.

From 97 wins in 2002, 85 in 2003, 105 in 2004, 100 in 2005 and its first World Series championship in 24 years in 2006 and another last season, the Cardinals have used talent, defense, good pickups and a great farm system to stay competitive. They made it to the World Series in 2004, too, reached 100 wins in 2005 and overcame injuries in 2006 and 2011 for remarkable runs to World Series titles. For 2012, the team will hit and their looks to be enough pitching depth for 90+ wins and another postseason – and from there, as Cardinal fans know, anything can happen.

Milwaukee Brewers (96-66 in 2011) – Lost in the shuffle of the Cardinals surprising run to the World Series is the fact that the Brewers actually won the NL Central with an impressive (and overlooked) 96-win campaign. They lost slugger Prince Fielder and his 38 homers, but return a lot of talent to an offense that was 11th in runs, 5th in slugging and 10th in on-base percentage in baseball, plus an outstanding starting rotation. They were a dominant team at home (57-24), but a losing road record (39-42), so there are some flaws.

The Brewers’ top pitchers Zach Greinke and Yovani Gallardo produced 33 wins and an ERA of 3.65 combined, plus Shaun Marcum rounds out a solid starting trio. The 26-year old Gallardo is an ace, off a 17-10 campaign with a 3.52 ERA in 207 innings fanning 207. The 28-year old Greinke (16-6, 3.83, 201 Ks) settled in nicely as did the 30-year old Marcum (13-7, 3.54). The trio eats innings, strikeouts out plenty and keeps them in every game.

Veteran lefty Randy Wolf (13-10, 3.69) was out of baseball a few years ago after leaving the Dodgers, but keeps throwing well and threw 212 innings, while Chris Narveson (11-8, 4.42) holds down the No. 5 slot. Their three aces made 33 starts each, while the other two made 28 starts, so it was a durable staff. Marco Estrada (4.08 ERA) and Mike McClendon (2.63) provide middle relief along with Francisco Rodriguez (1.86) for closer John Axford (46 saves, 1.95 ERA, 86 Ks in 73+ innings).

While all the focus was on the loss of fielder, they still have 2011 National League MVP LF Ryan Braun (33 HRs, 38 doubles, 111 RBI, .332 average, 33 steals). CF Carlos Gomez (.225) is a weak spot offensively though RF Nyjer Morgan (.304, 13 steals) gets on base but has little pop.

The offense, however, picks up a pair of key pieces for the infield. Alex Gonzal was signed to play shortstop after the team lost out on Jimmy Rollins who re-signed with the Philadelphia Phillies. Gonzalez hit 15 home runs for the Atlanta Braves in 2011 in 149 games, while they nabbed third baseman Aramis Ramirez (26 HRs, .307) from the Chicago Cubs.

Ramirez will play third, which pushes Mat Gamel to first, a top prospect who has done all his damage in the minor leagues but has yet to make the jump to the big leagues. 2B Rickie Weeks (20 HRs, .269) is terrific and catcher Jonathan Lucroy (12 HRs, .269) provides more offense from behind the plate. All in all look for this to be one of the top offenses in the league again, especially at home. In a wide open division, the Brewers will be in contention to repeat as division champs again. They have to learn to win on the road, however, to take the next step.

Cincinnati Reds (79-83 in 2011) – The young Reds were competitive much of last season before a second half fade, finishing with a losing record. They were probably a little better than that record suggests, 7th in baseball in runs scored, 9th in on-base percentage. Too much young pitching did them in as they were 20th in team ERA.

The Reds look better for 2012. The infield is very strong, anchored by star 1B 28-year old Joey Votto (.309, 29 HRs, 103 RBI), who had a stellar .416 on –base percentage. 2B Brandon Phillips (.300, 18 HRs) provides more pop and stole 18 bases, while veteran 3B Scott Rolen (5 HRs) has had a strong spring and 26-year old SS Zack Cozart is back after going through Tommy John surgery. He hit .324in just 11 games before getting injured.

The Reds have a terrific prospect in 23-year old catcher Devin Mesoraco, who can hit and throw out runners, while Ryan Hanigan (.267, 6 HRs) is reliable if the kid isn’t yet ready. The outfield is impressive with 24-year old RF Jay Bruce (.256, 32 HRs, 97 RBI), LF Ryan Ludwick (.237) and CF Drew Stubbs (.243, 15 HRs, 40 steals). Stubbs was only caught ten times, but had a whopping 205 strikeouts and can struggle against right-handed pitching.

The offense will be very good, but what about the pitching? This is a young staff with above-average potential. 26-year old righty Johnny Cueto (9-5, 2.31) didn’t have a lot of wins but was outstanding, throwing 156 innings in 24 starts and is their young ace. They got 24-year old Mat Latos (9-14, 3.47) from the Padres, who has excellent stuff but benefitted from the huge outfield at Petco Park. Latos had a 2.95 ERA in 27 Petco starts the past two seasons combined, compared to 3.40 in 35 on the road. There’s no denying his stuff and he fanned 185 in 194 innings last summer.

Veteran righty Bronson Arroyo (9-12, 5.07) is passed his prime, but is still a decent starter, much better on righties than lefties. He surrendered a whopping 46 homers last year (and only 45 walks!). Young Mike Leake (12-9, 3.86) and Homer Bailey (9-7, 4.43) round out a quality rotation with little experience to go along with enviable overall talent.

Adding middlemen Ryan Madson and highly touted Sean Marshall should improve the bullpen depth alongside Bill Bray (2.98) and Sam LeCure (3.71). While the Cardinals and Brewers lost some key pieces, the Reds have assembled a talented young group that appears to be on the rise in the NL Central. Cincy should be able to creep over the .500 mark and has a good farm system that could help add some key pieces in mid-season if they are in contention.

Chicago Cubs (71-91 in 2011) – Yes, the Cubs did win the World Series — in 1908. So it’s been 100+ years, which is where the term “Long suffering Cubs’ fans comes from.” And if anybody knows about long suffering fans it’s Chicago’s new general manager, Theo Epstein, who helped win two World Series building the Red Sox before undertaking this new challenge.

He inherits a team that finished in fifth place, ranked 25th in baseball in team ERA , 18th in runs and was dreadful in the field. The kid GM has a lot of work to do. The infield is young and there will be growing pains. 22-year old Starlin Castro (22 steals) is at shortstop and impressed with a .307 average, 10 home runs and 66 RBIs last year, but has made 27 and 29 errors the last two seasons, numbers that are far too high.

1B Brian Lahair is a newcomer who won the Pacific Coast League MVP award last season for driving in 109 runs and hitting 38 homers for Triple-A Iowa. Second base has 26-year old Darwin Barney (.276, 9 steals), who doesn’t get on base much, while Ian Stewart and Blake DeWitt will compete for third base. Stewart comes over from Colorado (48 games) while Dewitt his .265, 5 homers and 26 RBIs for the Cubs last summer. Catcher Geovany Soto (.228) hit 17 homers but struggles to get on base.

And speaking of shaky defense, LF Alfonso Soriano (26 HRs, .244) provides offense but is not good in the field, while David DeJesus (.240, 10 homers) comes over from Oakland and will play right field. They will go with CF Marlon Byrd who has a fine glove but is average as an offensive force. They will be in the middle of the pack offensively in baseball and can only get better defensively – they hope.

The pitching staff led the NL in walks allowed and they finally tired of Carlos Zambrano and shipped him out. They have one reliable starter in Matt Garza (10-10, 3.32 ERA, 198 IP), a terrific strikeout pitcher (197) and a guy who can eat innings. Beyond that, though, the rotation drops off sharply. Righty Ryan Dempster (10-14, 4.80 ERA) is aging while Chris Volstad comes over from the Marlins where he was just 5-13 with a 4.89 ERA in 29 starts. And that was in a friendly pitcher’s park – Wrigley Field will be a challenge for a guy who allowed opponents to hit .289 and gave up 23 homers in 165 innings.

Jeff Samardzija (8-4, 2.97) and Travis Wood are battling for a starting job. Wood comes over from the Reds where he didn’t impress (6-6, 4.84 ERA) and Samardzija (88 innings) didn’t start a game last year and is better suited for middle relief. Arms for middle relief are Pat Maholm (6-14, 3.66 ERA for Pittsburgh,) veteran Rodrigo Lopez (6-6, 4.42 ERA) and Randy Wells (7-6, 4.99 ERA).

Carlos Marmol gets the nod at closer, and while he saved 34 games he had a 4.01 ERA and walked 48 in 74 innings. Don’t be surprised if they have to find another closer, or use the 29-year old Marmol as trade bait before the deadline. This team has a lot of holes and is in Year 1 of the rebuilding job under a new GM that will take several years. They will be closer to 90 losses than 90 wins.

Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90 in 2011) – The young Pirates finished fourth in the six-team NL Central last summer, but still lost 90 games with a losing record (36-45) both home and away. There was little to get excited about with a team that ranked 11th in the NL in team ERA and the offense was worse, 27th in runs scored in all of baseball, 24th in OBP and 27th in slugging. They were bad across the board.

The pitching staff decided to bring in some veterans with lefty Eric Bedard and A.J. Burnett. The 35-year old Burnett (5.15 ERA, 11-11) was hittable with the Yankees, but is battling injuries (orbital bone) and figures to return sometime around May 1. The 33-year old lefty Bedard was 5-9 with the Mariners but had a 3.62 ERA in 129 innings and 125 Ks. He was a good gamble and appears healthy enough to start opening day.

29-year old Jeff Karstens (9-9, 162 innings) can shift to a No. 2 or 3 role and was very good with a 3.38 ERA and only 33 walks. Beyond that depth and quality are major problems with James McDonald (9-9, 4.21), Kevin Correia (12-11, 4.79) and Charlie Morton (10-10, 3.83).

The Pirates’ bullpen has the potential to be very good with Joel Hanrahan (40 saves, 1.83), who allowed only one home run, and Evan Meek (3.48) closing out games. Middle relief looks above average with Jason Grilli (2.48), Chris Resop (4.39) and Daniel McCutchen. The biggest concern is control as the Pittsburgh staff walked 535 batters, fifth most in the NL.

The offense is fairly anemic, especially when you realize they play in a hitter friendly park. The old joke is, “Everyone can score runs in this stadium except the Pirates.” This offense lacks both speed and power. CF Andrew McCutchen (23 steals, 23 homers, 89 RBI) is a good player, but doesn’t have much help in the outfield with LF Alex Presley (.298, 4 HRs) and RF Jose Tabata (.266, 21 HRs). 30-year old CF Nate McLouth will serve as the team’s fourth outfielder, who returns to Pittsburgh after spending three years in Atlanta.

The infield has 1B Garrett Jones (16 HRs, .243) and 2B Neil Walker (12 HRs, .273), along with 25-year old 3B Pedro Alvarez (.191, 4 HRs) and 36-year old Catcher Rod Barajas (.230, 16 HRs). Replacing Ronny Cedeno at shortstop is 33-year old Clint Barmes, who comes over from Colorado where he hit .244 with 12 homers and a .312 OBP. He will help the defense but do nothing for this below average offense. It’s hard to see the Pirates improving much, an organization moving sideways more than forwards.

Houston Astros (56-106 in 2011) – The young Astros were dreadful in 2011, the only club to lose 100 games. They were 26th in runs scored, 23rd in OBP and dead last in team ERA (4.51) in the NL. This staff walked the second most batters in the National League.

The staff really doesn’t look that bad on paper. 33-year old lefty Wandy Rodriguez (11-11, 3.49 ERA) allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and fanned 166 in 191 innings. He’s a good anchor to have atop the rotation, but at his age he will likely be traded around the All Star break. 27-year old Bud Norris (6-11) pitched better than that record, with a 3.77 ERA allowing 177 hits in 186 innings while fanning 176.

Houston signed veteran Livan Hernandez to eat innings, who had a 4.47 ERA and an 8-13 record pitching for Washington last season. That was a big park, so he should struggle at home in 2012. J.A. Happ (6-15) has been awful since leaving the Phillies and had a 5.35 ERA last season walking 83 in 156 innings, a good pitcher to look at over the total, while 21-year old Jordan Lyles (2-8, 5.36) has upside but may be better suited for long relief.

The relief staff is very good behind David Carpenter (2.93) and Wilton Lopez (2.79) for closer Brett Myers. Myers was a starter last season and was 7-14 with a 4.46 ERA in 216 innings, but moves back to the role he had with the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies. Former Red Sox starter Kyle Wieland was added, who can start or relieve but has marginal stuff.

New general manager Jeff Luhnow has made some moves to try and upgrade the offense but it won’t be nearly enough. New shortstop 27-year old Jed Lowrie comes over from Boston and has a decent bat, hitting .252 with 6 homers and 14 doubles in half a season. Lowrie, who is a switch-hitter, has mainly been hitting second this spring. Houston had two players who stole over 30 bases but both are gone, so this offense needs to find new speed and ANY power!

3B Jimmy Paredes (.286) and 2B Jose Altuve (.276) played well in limited action and get the full time nod. 1B/LF Carlos Lee rounds out the infield and belted 18 homers and 38 doubles while hitting .275, a quality bat in the middle of the lineup – if they don’t trade him. The outfield has LF J.D. Martinez (.274), CF Jordan Schafer (.245) and RF Brian Bogusevic (.287, 4 HRs), all who played limited time last season, so there are a lot of question marks.

Chris Snyder was brought in to back up and mentor Jason Castro (2 HRs, .205) behind the plate, so this looks like the worst offense in baseball. And with a pitching staff that has more holes than solid performers, Houston won’t be looking at a winning season but will be trying to avoid 100 losses again.

Predicted Order of Finish
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers (95-67 2011) – The Tigers rode the golden right arm of ace Justin Verlander all the way to the ALCS last October before falling to Texas in six games. This team was no fluke, finishing fourth in runs scored, on-base percentage and slugging, plus third in batting average. Meanwhile, the 28-year-old Justin Verlander went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA, fanning 250 in 251 innings winning the MVP and Cy Young. He’s a rare workhorse ace to build a staff around.

27-year-old Max Scherzer is an up-and-coming talent, a good strikeout pitcher winning 12 and 15 games the last two seasons. 28-year-old Doug Fister was picked up at the trading deadline and went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 10 starts as a Tiger, while they have high hopes for 23-year-old Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.75 ERA). Throwing in a big park like Comerica is a huge plus for their pitchers.

A bad postseason (8.01 ERA) shouldn’t diminish what the Detroit bullpen accomplished, which was very good, led by ace closer Valverde (2.24 ERA, 49-for-49 in save opportunities). Righty Joaquin Benoit (63 strikeouts in 61 innings) is a fine middle man, with Phil Coke and Daniel Schlere situational relievers, plus they add Octavio Dotel for depth and flexibility.

The offense was outstanding despite playing in a pitcher-friendly park. The bad news is that DH Victor Martinez will miss the 2012 season after surgery to repair a torn ACL, but the Tigers moved quickly to sign Prince Fielder to play first and DH. The 27-year-old Fiedler is off a 38-homer, 36-double season in Milwaukee, hitting .299 and driving in 120 runs. He probably won’t duplicate that in this park, but is still a potent weapon in a deep lineup.

That means Miguel Cabrera (.344, 30 HRs, 105 RBI, on-base percentage of .448) moves to third. As the Marlins’ full-time third baseman in 2007, Cabrera made 23 errors.  SS Jhonny Peralta is off a career-high .299 batting average and hit 21 HRs, while Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn (14 HRs, .256) will platoon at second base. Catcher Alex Avila (19 HRs, .295) provides more offensive punch.

The outfield is solid behind CF Austin Jackson (22 steals, 11 triples), who has speed atop the order and provides Gold Glove-caliber defense, with RF Brennan Boesch (.283, 16 HRs) reliable and LF Delmon Young getting an early shot to live up to his abilities. The Tigers look better in 2011 and should be in the running for another division title.

Minnesota Twins (63-99 in 2011) – The Twinkies bottomed out to last place, losing 99 games, but don’t forget they won 94 games in 2010. Will we see a revival? Or are they somewhere in the middle? The rotation was beset by problems last summer, but could be much improved behind Francisco Liriano (9-10, 5.09 ERA), Nick Blackburn (7-10, 4.49), Carl Pavano (9-13, 4.30), Scott Baker (8-6, 3.14) and Brian Duensing (9-14, 5.23). This is an organization that teaches strong fundamentals in the field and for their pitchers to not walk anyone. Duensing had a 1.80 ERA in the pen and could be moved there if newcomer Jason Marquis settles in as a starter. Marquis pitched 132 innings combined for Washington and Arizona last year before breaking his right leg in mid-August.

The bullpen is a concern as they got hit hard with losses, including ace closer Joe Nathan. Matt Capps (15 saves, 4.25 ERA) has a fine young arm, and Glen Perkins (2.48) was terrific while fanning 65 in 61 innings. After ranking last in the majors in bullpen ERA (4.51) they can only be better.

The offense ranked No. 25 in the majors in runs scored and clearly needs 1B Justin Morneau (.227, 4 HRs) and catcher Joe Mauer (.287, 296 at bats) to return to health, as the heart and soul of the offense. Morneau has been encouraged by the health of his wrist but, has had a poor spring. And while Mauer appears fully healthy, he had only 47 starts behind the plate last season. Third baseman Danny Valencia (15 HRs, .246) is decent, though the Twins signed Sean Burroughs to a minor league deal as insurance.

38-year-old SS Jamey Carroll should help solidify the middle infield, hitting .290 and .291 the last two seasons with the Dodgers. Alexi Casilla (15 steals) is solid/unspectacular at second base.

The outfield has a new look and has speed, which will help defensively in cavernous Target Field. 33-year-old LF Josh Willingham comes over from Oakland where he belted 29 homers and 98 RBI, while center fielder Denard Span (.264) has looked good in spring after playing just half a season in 2010 because of a concussion and Ben Revere is a solid defensive backup outfielder. One of the most intriguing players is catcher Ryan Doumit, who comes over from Pittsburgh after hitting 15, 10, 13 and 8 homers the last four years. They will use him behind the plate, at DH and even the outfield. They don’t have the payroll to improve if injuries crop up again, but with a little luck in the health department the Twins could look more like their impressive 2010 team than last year’s last place squad.

Kansas City Royals  (71-91 in 2011) – Kansas City took some important steps-up last season. They wwere No. 10 in baseball in runs scored, No. 4 in batting average, No. 8 in on-base percentage and No. 7 in slugging. They were one game below .500 at home, but 31-50 away. The farm system has been very good and 12 players made their big league debuts last summer.

When they traded away ace Zack Greinke, they got shortstop Alcides Escobar in return and the kid is a fine player. He had 26 steals last year, a .254 average and a lot of acrobatic plays defensively. Johnny Giavotella (.247) is penciled in at second, though that could change. 22-year-old first baseman Eric Hosmer (19 HRs, .293, 78 RBI) is terrific and 23-year-old third baseman Mike Moustakas (5 HRs, .263) has nothing but upside after being the second overall pick in 2007. This is a pretty good infield. The outfield also has a No. 2 overall pick (2005) in LF Alex Gordon (23 HRs, 17 steals, .303 average), who teams with reliable rightfielder Jeff Francoeur  (20 HRs, 87 RBI) and defensive CF Lorenzo Cain.  Throw in DH Billy Butler (95 RBI) and there’s plenty like about this Kansas City offense and defense in the field.

If this team is to take a step-up it needs to come from the pitching staff, which is why they grabbed 29-year-old lefthander Jonathan Sanchez, the former Giant. He has been up and down and last season, throwing 101 innings with a 4.26 ERA, but allowed only 80 hits as opponents hit .220 off him and fanned 102. He helped the Giants reach the postseason in 2010 by posting a 2.61 ERA after the All-Star break, including a 1.04 mark in his last seven starts.

The Royals like 28-year-old righty Luke Hochevar (4.68, 198 IP), who was 6-3 with a 3.52 ERA in the second half. Veteran lefty Bruce Chen is a junkball pitcher, but has been very good as a starter and went 12-8 last year (3.77 ERA). The No. 4 and No. 5 spots are wide open with righthander Felipe Paulino and lefty Danny Duffy available. The stocked farm system has lefty Mike Montgomery (a top prospect) and righty Aaron Crow.

The bullpen has a strong setup man in Joakim Soria (60 Ks in 60 innings, 17 walks) and adds Jonathan Broxton and Jose Mijares to one-year deals. Broxton is a former closer and a two-time All-Star. The Royals are no longer the laughing stock of the division and if Sanchez and Hochevar develop as an above-average, one-two punch atop the rotation, eating innings, Kansas City could improve and may have a shot at getting over that elusive .500 mark.

Cleveland Indians (80-82 in 2011) – The Indians have fallen hard from making the ALCS in 2007, to selling off Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia while rebuilding again. This young team overachieved last season, with a winning record at home (44-27), but 36-45 away. They were fortunate to be near .500 with an offense that was 16th in runs in baseball, 17th in OBP, 16th in slugging, and 23rd in team ERA.

The Cleveland infield has an ace in 26-year-old shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (25 homers). He hit .293 in the first half of the season, but only .244 in the second half. Young 2B Jason Kipnis (.272 in 136 at bats) played well in limited time, but is a converted center fielder and is still raw defensively. That will be a concern with this young pitching staff. Cleveland signed 29-year-old Casey Kotchman to play first base, and he hit 10 homers with a .306 average with Tampa Bay in 2011. His .378 OBP will help clog the bases and perhaps bring some plate discipline to the young players, which is needed as the Indians were 17th in OBP as a team.

23-year-old 3B Lonnie Chisenhall (7 HRs) will get time at the hot corner, but there is a lot of youth in this lineup. 25-year-old Carlos Santana, a switch-hitting catcher, hit just .239 but belted 27 HRs, 79 RBIs with 97 walks. The outfield has LF Shin-Soo Choo (.259) and Grady Sizemore – two often injured talents. Sizemore has had five surgeries in the last three years, so get him off of any fantasy teams! RF Mike Brantley (.266, 7 HRs) got 451 at bats, but missed all of September with a broken hamate bone in his right hand, so there are huge question marks with this outfield.

And speaking of question marks, the pitching staff is a handful for new pitching coach Scott Radinsky. There is a potentially good one-two punch with submariner Justin Masterson (12-10, 216 IP, 3.21 ERA) and Ubaldo Jimenez (5.10 ERA, 27 walks in 65 IP). Jimenez was a one-year wonder in Colorado, but hasn’t found any control since, while Masterson is good, but has struggled with lefties his whole career, so managers load-up often. Last year, righties hit .210 off him, lefties .291.

Veteran 38-year-old Derek Lowe (9-17, 5.05 ERA) is far past his prime and returning to the AL won’t help. His command has been a problem, as his 3.37 walks-per-nine-innings ratio was his highest in seven years. 27-year-old Josh Tomlin (12-7) is an under-the-radar arm with a 4.25 ERA, few walks and fewer hits than innings pitched. 31-year-old Roberto Hernandez (5.25 ERA, 7-15) is another sinkerballer on the team, but is off a terrible campaign.

The bullpen is a mixed bag. They’ve got reliable Rafael Perez (3.00 ERA) and Vinnie Pestano (2.32) to help closer Chris Perez (3.32 ERA, 36 saves), but little depth. They hope Tony Sipp and side-arming righty Joe Smith can improve, along with hard-throwing righty Frank Herrmann. Getting some reliable innings out of Masterson, Jimenez and Tomlin will be the key, but 2011 looks like another season of 75-80 losses.

Chicago White Sox (79-83 in 2011) – Things will be quieter on the south side of Chicago that’s because loud mouth Ozzie Guillen is gone, replaced by new manager Robin Ventura! After winning 88 games in 2010, the White Sox slid below .500 and are rebuilding. After ranking No. 18 in runs scored, No. 15 in OBP and No. 19 in team ERA, there is a lot of work to do.

The infield has a good all-around player in SS Alexei Ramirez, who has led AL shortstops in homers and extra-base hits over the last three seasons, and is a terrific defensive player. He doesn’t have a lot of help, however, though this team ranked third in baseball in fewest runs allowed. 2B Gordon Beckham (10 HRs, .233) was a disappointment with his bat and 3B Brent Morel (10 HRs, .245)  is back after a weak rookie season – a better glove than bat.

First baseman Paul Konerko (31 HRs, 105 RBI) is still an offensive force, but is 36-years-old and didn’t get any protection from DH Adam Dunn (.159, 11 home runs), a free agent bust and a major flop. The bad news is that he’s back (or more to the point, they are stuck with his four-year, $56-million contract). Catcher A.J. Pierzynski (8 HRs, .287) is serviceable but on the downside of his career at age 35.

31-year old CF Alex Rios is a talent, but slumped badly with 11 HRs, 11 steals and a .227 average, while 23-year-old RF Dayan Viciedo gets his shot in the outfield after hitting .255 in 102 bats last season (1 HR). They are searching for a left fielder, and 34-year-old Kosuke Fukudome and 27-year-old Alejandro de Aza will battle for time.

As shaky as the offense looks, the pitching is worse. Reliable Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson are gone (327 innings) and the staff looks super-thin. Aging Jake Peavy (7-7, 4.92 EA) has battled injuries and hasn’t been the same since he left the NL, so look for Gavin Floyd (12-13, 4.37) and John Danks (8-12, 4.33) to carry the load after sub-par seasons. They turn their lonely eyes to lefthander Chris Sale (2.79 ERA), who was a reliever, along with Philip Humber (9-9, 3.75 ERA, 163 IP) and Zach Stewart, who was acquired for Jackson.

Veterans Matt Thornton, Jesse Crain and Will Ohman are aboard to fix the pen and they hope Sergio Santos (3.55, 30 saves) can repeat his numbers as closer, a position that is still in flux. There is little talent in the minors, so despite being close to .500 last season, look for the White Sox to slide in the wrong direction in 2012. They are a long way from that 2005 championship season.

Predicted Order of Finish
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees (97-65 in 2011):  The Yankees led the American League in wins last season and outscored opponents by a whopping 201 runs – easily the best in baseball. But no one remembers that after another postseason flameout. One World Series title in 10 years won’t cut it for the fans of the team with the highest payroll in the game.

The good news is that this team is loaded for 2012 and should win the AL East. Offense is never a problem for this lineup, second in runs scored last summer and tops in home runs with 222. There are some age concerns in the infield, but they are loaded with power and defense behind 37-year-old SS Derek Jeter (.297) and 36-year-old 3B Alex Rodriguez (16 HRs) are past their primes but still formidable with a bat, as is 31-year-old Mark Teixeira (39 HRs, 111 RBI). Second basemen 29-year-old Robinson Cano is the kid of the group and finished second in the league in extra-base hits and ranked among the top four in total bases for the third year in a row. He set career highs in runs (104) and RBIs (118).

29-year old catcher Russell Martin (.237) was a good pick-up and belted 18 homers. He loves this small park, but hits just .217 on the road, buying time for prospects Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez.  The outfield has a valuable weapon in LF Brett Gardner, a leadoff hitter who swiped 49 bases and was caught just 13 times. RF Nick Swisher (23 homers, 123 Ks) and newcomer Raul Ibanez will take some of Swisher’s at-bats against right-handed pitching. The team MVP, though, was 31-year-old CF Curtis Granderson who had a monster 2011 with 41 homers, 10 triples, 25 steals and 85 walks. Age and injuries and a concern with this offense, but they will be one of the best in the league again.

The pitching staff was surprisingly strong last summer despite age, and they look improved. 6-foot-7 newcomer 23-year-old Michael Pineda comes over from Seattle with electric stuff and a 3.74 ERA and 173 strikeouts in 171 innings. Opponents hit .211 off him. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who might struggle in this park, but was an excellent addition.

31-year old lefty C.C. Sabathia (19-8, 3.00 ERA) is a dominant ace. Young Ivan Nova (16-4, 3.70 ERA) was a huge addition last summer and they still have high hopes for Phil Hughes (5.79 ERA), who battled injuries. If the kids have problems, the Yankees have veterans Freddy Garcia (12-8) and newcomers Andy Pettitte and former Dodger Hiroki Kuroda to lean on. The bullpen is deep with Joba Chamberlain,  Scott Proctor, Rafael Soriano  (4.12), David Robertson (1.08) and 42-year-old Mariano Rivera (44 saves, 2.04 ERA). We keep waiting for Rivera to break down but he never does. The Pinstripes are the team to beat in the AL East.

Tampa Bay Rays (91-71 in 2011):  If you’re looking for a small-market team to root for and slay the big boys, the Rays could do it! Tampa Bay’s offense loves to run under manager Joe Maddon, second in baseball with 155 steals. CF B.J. Upton (71 walks, 23 HRs, 36 steals), LF Desmond Jennings (20 steals), OF Sam Fuld (20 steals) and 2B Bob Zobrist (20 HRs, 19 steals) are back and love to attack the base paths and disrupt opposing pitchers.

3B Evan Longoria (31 HRs, 80 walks) and RF Matt Joyce (19 HRs) provide the power to knock them in. 33-year-old 1B Carlos Pena returns after a one-year visit to the Chicago, where he hit 28 homers but just .195. He had his best years in this park and hit 46, 31 and 28 homers the previous three years with Tampa.

While the offense is good enough, though not great, the pitching is loaded. Start with a pair of aces in hard-throwing David Price (12-13, 3.49 ERA, 218 Ks in 224 innings) and James Shields (2.82, 11 complete games, four shutouts). A guy to watch is 24-year-old Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson (13-10, 2.95 ERA), who has ace-stuff, and 22-year-old phenom Matt Moore, who fanned 15 in 9 innings last season. Tall veteran Jeff Niemann (11-7, 4.06 ERA) is decent and 24-year-old Alex Cobb (52 IP, 49 hits, 37 Ks, 3.42 ERA) can start or relieve.

The bullpen will make or break this team, but looks above average with Joel Peralta  (2.93) and J.P. Howell in middle relief for 35-year-old Kyle Farnsworth (25 saves, 2.18 ERA). Fernando Rodney comes aboard and they hope he’s over back problems. Tampa Bay has outstanding defense in the field, which helps them on the road with an impressive 44-37 road record last summer. With all these arms, this is a team built for the long haul and they could be playing in October – again.

Boston Red Sox (90-72 in 2011): After a miserable start in 2011, the Red Sox were the best team in the AL – until Labor Day. A talented team (tops in runs scored) stumbled through a stunning September collapse, missing the playoffs. As a consequence, the owners cleaned house, firing the manager and GM. New manager Bobby Valentine takes over and has been the opposite of Terry Francona, working the players hard in spring training. A slow start is unlikely again, but do they have the pitching for the long haul?

They do on paper.

Lefty Jon Lester (15-9, 3.47 ERA) and Josh Beckett (13-7, 2.89) were outstanding last summer until September when they fell apart along with everyone else. They are a terrific one-two lefty/righty punch. The injury to righty Clay Buchholz (back) was the biggest blow to the staff, throwing only 82.2 innings (3.48 ERA), but he’s back and looks to return to this 2010 form (17-7, 2.33). He’s been strong in the spring, a great sign.

Injuries to Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lackey (both out for 2012) have strained the rotation’s depth, so they are rolling the dice with lefty Andrew Miller, often erratic with walks, and former middle man/closer Daniel Bard. Bard throws 100 MPH and wants to be a starter, but has only two pitches, so don’t pencil him in for 15 wins and 200 innings yet.

The bullpen lost closer Jonathan Papelbon to Philadelphia. Middle man Alfredo Aceves is outstanding, but beyond that there are a lot of question marks. They will be leaning on Franklin Morales, Matt Albers and Rich Hill. Aceves started four games last season, and posted a record of 10-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 55 appearances overall. They really need him or Bard in the pen.

At least the offense has no problems, at No. 1 in baseball last season in runs, on-base percentage and slugging, plus second in batting average! CF Jacoby Ellsbury is in a contact year and was sensational with 39 steals, a .321 average, 32 homers and 105 RBI last year. LF Ryan Sweeny was picked-up from Oakland and is a lefty bat that is made for Fenway park, and will battle Darnell McDonald and Carl Crawford (.255, 11 HRs) for time. Crawford was a colossal bust and is not as well suited to play on natural grass.

Former MVP 2B Dustin Pedroia (21 HRs, .307) is in his prime along with 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.338, 27 HRs, 117 RBI). DH David Ortiz (.309, 29 HRs) continues to hit and they expect 3B Kevin Youkalis (17 HRs) to bounce back from injuries from hernia surgery and case of hip bursitis. Shortstop is a concern with Mike Aviles as they don’t expect young Jose Iglesias to be ready. Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (16 HRs) turned into a good find and Boston brings in Kelly Shoppach to provide defense behind the plate, which has been a problem for several years.

The Red Sox will be good enough to win 90 again, and if the pitching improves they are a threat to steal the division. But with the new skipper working them hard in March, will they be prone to burning out down the stretch again?

Toronto Blue Jays (81-81 in 2011): The Blue Jays actually have some good young talent, but have the misfortune to be stuck in this brutal division. This offense is very good, at No. 6 in baseball in runs scored last summer, and No. 10 in slugging.

The outfield is the strength of the offense. 31-year-old CF Rajai Davis (34 steals) and DH Edwin Encarnacion (17 HRs, 70 runs) try and get on base for RF Jose Batista, who stroked 43 homers with 103 RBI while hitting .302. That came on the heels of his 2010 season with 54 home runs. Bautista led the majors in OPS (1.056) and walks (132).

1B Adam Lind (26 HRs) provides more sock along with catcher J.P. Arencibia (23 HRs), and SS Yunel Escobar (.290, 11 HRs, 77 runs) was a great acquisition from the Braves. But despite all that power, the Jays finished No. 18 in on-base percentage. 2B Kelly Johnson (.270) and 3B Brett Lawrie (.293) round out the infield. Johnson struggled for the Diamondbacks last season, but in 33 games with Toronto he batted .270 with a .364 on-base percentage and three homers.

While the offense is above average, the pitching staff is young and thin. Only five teams had a higher earned-run average from their starters last season than the Blue Jays at 4.55. They are relying on 27-year-old lefty Ricky Romero (15-11, 2.92 ERA) and erratic Brandon Morrow (11-11, 203 Ks in 179 IP, 69 walks) to anchor the rotation. Beyond that are the youngsters with promise in Kyle Drabek (6.06 ERA), Henderson Alvarez (3.53) and Brett Cecil, the lefty who earned 15 victories in 2010 but was shipped back to Class AAA last April.

The bullpen is deep with veterans Jesse Litsch and Carlos Villanueva (4.04), and they reacquired righty setup man Jason Frasor (2.98). Toronto traded for closer Sergio Santos (Padres) and still has Francisco Cordero, the former Reds’ closer.  Toronto will sock the ball at home, but struggle on the road with this suspect pitching and defense. A team to look at over the total, especially at home?

Baltimore  Orioles (69-93 in 2011): The Orioles haven’t done much right in a decade. They were in last place last year with a terrible road mark (30-51), No. 14 in baseball in runs scored, No. 19 in on-base percentage and dead last in team ERA (4.89).

The offense has a gem in shortstop J.J. Hardy (30 HRs, 80 RBI), a steal from the Twins. His .990 fielding percentage and .491 slugging percentage led AL shortstops.  Throw in Gold Glove catcher Matt Wieters (22 HRs) and center fielder Adam Jones (25 HRs) and the Orioles are surprisingly strong up the middle – a terrific building block.

But second baseman Brian Roberts (concussion) wasn’t on the field much and there are long term concerns. Robert Andino (.263) filled in and was decent, but 3B is a weak spot with Josh Bell and Wilson Betemit. 28-year old Mark Reynonds is on first and belted 37 homers, but just a .221 average, along with 86 RBI, so no one was getting on base in front of him.

RF Nick Markakis (.284, 15 HRs) is solid and won a Gold Glove in right field after going 160 games without committing an error. Jones didn’t win a Gold Glove, but he was outstanding in center field, though left field is wide open with Nolan Reimold I and Jai Miller vying for time.

Then there’s the pitching, which looks brutal. Righthander Jeremy Guthrie was very good the last two seasons, but was traded to Colorado. Tommy Hunter went 3-3 with a 5.06 ERA in 12 games after being acquired from the Rangers, but is no ace. Jake Arrieta (10-8, 5.05 ERA) underwent surgery in August to remove a bone spur from his elbow, though he’s been good in the spring. Lefthander Zach Britton will stay in the rotation after going 11-11 with a 4.61 ERA as a rookie.

That’s why they signed 26-year-old Taiwanese lefthander Wei-Yin Chen, hoping to catch Asian lightening in a bottle. Chen threw 165 innings with a 2.68 ERA and 94/31 K/BB ratio for the Chunichi Dragons in Japan last season and will move right into the Orioles’ rotation at age 26. They also signed Japanese lefthander Tsuyoshi Wada, but he’s a soft thrower and won’t be effective in the rugged AL East parks.

The bullpen is thin with Kevin Gregg (40 walks, 59 innings, 7 blown saves) and former first-round pick Brian Matusz (1-9, 10.65 ERA). Former set-up man Jim Johnson was closing games in September and could remain in that role. They also grabbed three guys from the Rangers in Pedro Strop, lefty Zach Phillips and submariner Darren O’Day.

All in all, they will be closer to 100 losses again than 100 wins.

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How much of a bet is too much of a bet?

So you want success with sports betting & sports picks? You need to know not only who to bet, but how much to bet. There are lots of different thoughts on this. Most of them depend upon how much of an edge you have. If you have a big edge, then you make a big bet. The problem with this is that you can’t hardly know what your exact edge is. This is why it is important to be conservative in your bets. The more conservative the better, because you won’t go broke this way.

Ultimately some people are better off with a flat betting system. Why is this the case? It is because most people don’t have the ability to emotionally handle bet sizing. If they start changing their bet sizes, they are tempted to up it too much when they lose. You need to turn it into a thing where you want to win more than you lose. You want to go 2-1. The money shouldn’t be that important. Just hitting more than you lose has to be the goal. When you go with flat bet sizing, you’ll be better off in most instances.

Posted by Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “

To moneyline or take the points?

For many individuals, one of the most difficult questions is whether to take the points or just hit the moneyline. For instance, your team is a 2.5 point underdog in a football game, so shouldn’t you just take the moneyline? Those points won’t come into play most of the time. Though it is true that the points won’t come into play in a majority of bets, there isn’t always great value in the moneyline. In games where the spread is so low, it’s expected that the game will be very close. Having a couple of points on your side at the end of the game can make a major difference.

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The big point is about greed. You have to check yourself so that you don’t get greedy with these kinds of  sports picks. Ultimately the goal is just to win. You want to keep adding money to your bankroll. If you get greedy and try to hit moneylines, then you will watch a correctly handicapped game turn into a loser on many occasions. Just take the points and you won’t have to worry about this.

Posted by Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “