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Football picks08 Aug 2008 11:41 am

Interesting Q&A on NFL season win totals

I received this question from a long-time subscriber and thought I’d post my response to it for all to see:

Question:

Hi Dog,
Very nice pick last nite on balt - thank you!!!
 
Got your season O/U total wins picks and had a question -
 
do you think this would be a bad bet for somebody that is a very conservative player… i know you did not have a lean on GB (8) or Minn (8.5) but here goes……
 
bet them both over…. my thinking is that one of the two should win the division (they outshine bears and lions big time) and it is also very hard to win a division without winning at least 9 games…
 
so my point is - I feel one would have a very good chance of going 2-0, and very very little chance of going 0-2….  worst case IMHO would be 1-1…….. of course as always there could be injuries :(
 
since the over odds for GB and MINN are about -120: 1-1 would lose 20 (based on 120 to win 100 on each team) 2-0 would win 200…
 
essentially one is risking 20 to win 200 (assuming 0-2 does not happen) BOTH gb and minn would have to regress badly to not at least win one of the bets…..
 
does this make any sense?  sorry for the long explanation-any comments would be appreciated…

THANK YOU!
Mark

My Answer:

Interesting Q&A on NFL season win totals

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Football picks26 Jul 2008 10:12 am

NFL Previews 2008: NFC Central

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
 
1. MINNESOTA
2. GREEN BAY
3. CHICAGO
4. DETROIT

MINNESOTA
COACH: BRAD CHILDRESS 3rd yr (14-18)
LAST YEAR:  8-8
GAMES DECIDED BY 3 OR LESS:  1-3
BIGGEST ADDITION: JARED ALLEN   DE
BIGGEST LOSS: TONY RICHARDSON  FB
 
DIRECTION: GOING UP
OUTLOOK: The Vikings could a surprise this season if Jackson continues to develop at QB and Adrian Peterson can stay healthy. Jackson made 12 starts last season and the Vikings went 8-4 in those games, and 0-4 in the rest. So, despite his lack of consistency, there is hope in Minnesota. The strength of this team is the defensive line. No team was able to run on this team at all in 2007. The secondary should be better with Antoine Winfield healthy, as he missed six games last season. So the two keys for improvement lie in the secondary and at QB. If the Vikings can improve meaningfully in at least one of the two areas, they could be playoff bound.
 
PROJECTED FINISH:  9-7

NFL Previews 2008: NFC Central

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Football picks25 Jul 2008 03:47 pm

NFL Previews 2008: NFC West

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
 
1. SEATTLE
2. ARIZONA
3. ST. LOUIS
4. SAN FRANCISCO

SEATTLE
COACH: MIKE HOLMGREN 10th yr (86-67)
LAST YEAR:  10-6
GAMES DECIDED BY 3 OR LESS:  1-4
BIGGEST ADDITION: JULIUS JONES  RB
BIGGEST LOSS: JOSH BROWN  K
 
DIRECTION: GOING NOWHERE
OUTLOOK: Matt Hasselback is a quality QB but the biggest question is, who is going to be catching the balls he throws? Deion Branch went down in the playoffs last season with a torn ACL and will miss a good portion of the season, and who knows what he’ll have to give in his return. DJ Hackett left for free agency and although Bobby Engram had a career year last season, he is now 35. An historic strength for this team has become a big question mark. Shaun Alexander never made it back after injuries so Julius Jones now gets the load in the backfield. We don’t see him as an every down type back and he gained 1.2 yds less than Barber last year for Dallas at 3.6. The Seahawks will still mange to win games because their defense is amongst the best in the NFL and they have one of the best coaches. The Seahawks lost four games by 3 points or less last year, and if the offense struggles, they may face a lot more of these types of games this season. This team may slip a bit, but given their weak division, they are still a playoff team.
 
PROJECTED FINISH:  10-6

NFL Previews 2008: NFC West

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Football picks18 Jul 2008 11:44 am

NFL Previews 2008: NFC South

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
 
1. NEW ORLEANS
2. CAROLINA
3. TAMPA BAY
4. ATLANTA

NEW ORLEANS 
COACH: SEAN PAYTON 3rd yr (18-16)
LAST YEAR: 7-9
GAMES DECIDED BY 3 OR LESS:  0-1
BIGGEST ADDITION: JONATHON VILMA  LB
BIGGEST LOSS: JEFF FAINE   C

DIRECTION: GOING UP
OUTLOOK: The Saints were a huge positive surprise in ‘06, but an equally disappointing surprise in ‘07. Last season many felt they would challenge for the NFC Championship and a trip to the Superbowl. It never materialized as they got out of the gate 0-4, made a late run, but fell short. Deuce McCallister will be back, but can he be productive off yet another ACL surgery? If he is, Reggie Bush should immediately be more effective, as he was a marked man in McCallister’s absence. Jonathon Vilma in the middle of the Saints defense should provide a lot of help. They will be helped greatly with a very soft schedule (#28 out of 32). The Saints have the weapons to rise again after a disappointing ‘07 season, and we see this team looking more like ‘06 than ‘07.
 
PROJECTED FINISH:  10-6
 
NFL Previews 2008: NFC South

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Football picks18 Jul 2008 11:33 am

NFL Previews 2008: NFC East

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
 
1. DALLAS
2. PHILADELPHIA
3. NY GIANTS
4. WASHINGTON

DALLAS 
COACH: WADE PHILLIPS 2nd yr (13-4)
LAST YEAR:  13-3
GAMES DECIDED BY 3 OR LESS:  2-0
BIGGEST ADDITION: ZACH THOMAS LB
BIGGEST LOSS: JULIUS JONES RB

DIRECTION: GOING DOWN
OUTLOOK: After a great regular season, the curtain came down fast on the Cowboys in the post-season losing to the Giants at home. The Cowboys didn’t need drastic improvement anywhere, as they are solid across the board. The biggest problems this season will come from the competition in their own division. Those six games are all going to be battles as the NFC East appears to be the strongest conference for the upcoming ‘08 season. In addition, road games at Cleveland and at Pittsburgh will surely be no picnic. The Cowboys aren’t really any better or worse than they were last year, but the teams they face six times this season within the division are all better, and it could take a few wins away.
 
PROJECTED FINISH: 10-6

NFL Previews 2008: NFC East

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