Prior to the Kentucky Derby, you are typically required to lay about $1000 to win $100 on a “no” bet that there will be a Triple Crown Winner. Based on historic win rates, that’s probably about right.

Now that the favorite won the Derby (we picked the three-year-old Big Brown), and won from the 20th post by an sizable margin, the odds have dropped considerably. Current odds:

Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in 2008?
Yes +110
No -150

(Available at Bodog or BetUS or Diamond or Bookmaker)

So what was once a bet that required a huge lay-to-win ratio of 10 to 1 has now dropped to 1.5 to 1.

Why? The public now has a “name” to go with for the “yes” bet. The media is all over him and you have seen “Big Brown” written hundreds of times since the Derby. You’ve heard his name countless more times on the radio and TV. All of this combines for a drastic over-betting on the “yes” for this prop.

But the public is acting irrationally. And from that, we shall profit.

A “yes” bet pays +110 now. What does that equate to? It equates to an assumed “win” percentage of about 45% to break even. So, in order to bet “yes” you have to assume that Big Brown has greater than a 45% chance of winning BOTH The Preakness and the Belmont Stakes!

Let’s assume Big Brown’s chances are equal in each of the upcoming races. If he is to have a 45% chance of winning both, that equates to a 67% chance of winning each race individually. Does Big Brown have a 67% chance of winning the The Preakness AND if he does, a 67% chance of winning the Belmont against fields of 10? History would say no way.

In 125 years of the Triple Crown, 11 horses have won the coveted trifecta. That’s 8.8%. Yet, Big Brown has a 45%+ chance? “Wait,” you say, “That 8.8% is based on betting this prop before the Derby is run. Now, Big Brown has just two more races to win - not three.” You are right! Let’s look more closely at what happens AFTER the Derby. Does the expected win percentage climb from 8.8% to 45%+ after we have identified a Kentucky Derby winner?

Based on data over the past two decades, the Kentucky Derby winner wins The Preakness at a 30% rate. Those that have what it takes to win the first two legs (the absolute best of the best in the history of the sport) only win The Belmont Stakes at a 52% rate. For those of you without your calculators handy, that equates to a historic Triple Crown win percentage of 15.6% (.30 x .52) even AFTER the Kentucky Derby winner has been crowned!

So, while the chances of the Derby winner winning the Triple Crown double compared to prior to the Derby (8.8% vs. 15.6%), we still have a 6.5 to 1 longshot bet here. We have a 15.6% historic figure that people are betting into as if it were 45%! That puts a tremendous amount of value on the opposite side - in this case, the “no” bet. Based on the actual historic chances over the past two decades, a “no” bet should require a line of -541 here.

So, we get to lay -150 on a bet that should be -541. Talk about value!

Now, you may be thinking that since a big favorite won the Derby (vs. a longshot), that changes the odds. Yes, it does. In fact, Big Brown probably has a better than average chance of winning the next two Triple Crown races as compared to the average Kentucky Derby winner. But, is Big Brown Brown really better than the following list of horses:

Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones

None of those recent Triple Crown contenters (all of whom actually won the first two legs) could pull off the herculian task. Remember, only 11 horses have ever done this. Is Big Brown really that good that he will defy these odds and win three in a row against the best fields the sport has to offer? Maybe. But it’s not likely. Even if you say he’s got 2x the historic chances (31%), there is only one way to go with this bet. You’d have to give Big Brown 3x the chances of pulling this off, compared to the horses in the last 20 years, to make the “no” bet a break-even proposition.

Wunderdog says: Take the “no” at -150 as you will rarely find a bet with this much value.

Cick to bet this prop bet at: Bodog or BetUS or Diamond or Bookmaker