Updated April 27
by Carlo Campanella

1) Pyro packs the best closing punch of the group and still owns the most consistent form of any 3-year-old in this crop, even after he failed to fire for the first time in his career in the Blue Grass Stakes. He never finished worse than third during his initial six starts, so we’re willing to toss out that poor effort as it was run over the Polytrack, while all of his previous races and the Derby will be contested on dirt. In fact, he entered the Blue Grass in great form, earning back-to-back victories in the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby. This colt is a son of Pulpit, who was sired by A.P. Indy, the former Belmont Stakes winner and one of today’s top sires. If you’re looking to knock this favorite, it could only be that his late closing run might get him into traffic trouble when facing 20 other runners on Derby day.

2) Big Brown hails from the barn of Richard Dutrow, Jr. and has been nothing short of awesome while compiling a perfect 3-for-3 lifetime record after taking Saturday’s $1 million dollar Florida Derby. So far, he’s won on both turf and dirt and has shown the ability to rate off the pace or take his foes wire-to-wire. Probably the colt with the least amount of pedigree, sired by $10,000 stud Boundary, but that didn’t keep him from selling for a solid $190,000 at the Keeneland sales. Been working like gang busters in Florida while waiting to make his next start on Derby day. His biggest knock is that he’s lightly raced, just like the last year when we saw an unbeaten, 3-for-3, Curlin finish fourth in the Derby only to improve with every passing start with the extra experience.

3) Cool Coal Man was once considered trainer Zito’s “other horse,” however, after War Pass was beaten in the Tampa Bay Derby and eventually injured, he’s moved into the limelight. Sired by $75,000 stud Mineshaft, another sire by A.P. Indy, he took the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream by stalking the leaders and sweeping by on the far turn. Willing to toss out his unimpressive effort when he last started in the Blue Grass over Keeneland’s Polytrack, as this colt has done nothing but win four of his last five races on the dirt!

4) Colonel John is the toast of the west coast, amassing four wins from six lifetime starts racing exclusively over the Polytrack in California. Enters the Derby with back-to-back victories in Santa Anita’s Grade 2 Sham Stakes and the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Trained by Eoin Harty for his owner and breeder, WinStar Farm, the biggest knock against this late closing son of Tiznow is that he’s been racing on the Polytrack and now must make the transition to the dirt at Churchill Downs. May have answered those questions by working five furlongs in .57 seconds and change, but was that too much before the run for the roses?

5) Tale of Ekati is one of the most talented 3-year-olds in this crop, but also one of the most inconsistent.  His debut was an awesome 8-length maiden score at Belmont Park. Two races later he stepped into the Stakes division by winning the Futurity Stakes also at Belmont. Just when he started looking like the possible 2-year-old Champion, he was destroyed by almost 18-lengths by War Pass in the Breeder’s Cup. Five months later, he turned the tables on War Pass, running him down right at the wire in the Wood Memorial. If War Pass was as good as some people thought, he could win the Derby, just depends on which horse shows up.

6) Monba, like the above Tale of Ekati, is talented but unpredictable. Grey son of Maria’s Mon, out of an Easy Goer mare, began his career with back-to-back victories, easily making the jump into the allowance 1x ranks by working out a wide trip from the 11 hole. He moved to the Polytrack afterwards, and finished a solid fourth, less than a length behind the talented Colonel John.  The wheels fell off the wagon in the Fountain of Youth, his 3-year-old debut over a sandy Gulfstream Park surface but he rebounded nicely by defeating Pyro, Visionaire, and Cool Coal Man in the Blue Grass.  Was that win aided by the synthetic surface, or has this previous dirt winner just returned to his old form in time for the Derby?

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