Let me take you back to 2005. The league was comprised of the haves and the have-nots. There were a handful of truly dominant teams: Carolina, Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, the Giants, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. They all won 11 or more games with two (Indy and Denver) getting to 13+ wins. Every single one of these teams had winning ATS records and combined for a 84-50 ATS record - good for 63% ATS! Overall, favorites hit an all-time record 57% ATS in 2005. How crazy is that? Consider that in recent NFL history (25 years), favorites averaged about 48% ATS and prior to 2005, never finished above 53%!

This (the long-term advantage on underdogs) is one of the reasons that most good NFL handicappers and professional sports bettors focus on their NFL expert picks on dogs. 2005 was an incredibly tough year for most successful pros. We started off on fire, building a huge bankroll through the preseason and early weeks but struggled down the stretch as the big favorites came through time and time again. We ended up 58% for the year but it was disappointing given our start. 2005 went down as the wackiest NFL picks season ever, with favorites covering at a clip 19% above their historical average and at an all-time high, crushing the previous high.

2006 returned to “normal” with favorites hitting just 44% ATS. In fact, you could say it was a “correction” year as dogs did better than their historical average. Things appeared to be following the pattern they followed over the past quarter-century with dogs representing the betting value. Most chalked 2005 up to an anomaly vs. the start of a long-term trend. Dog bettors (including this one) sighed a breath of relief.

But then 2007 occurred - and it seems like it’s 2005 all over again! There are a handful of teams that are dominating, winning nearly every game and covering every spread, no matter the price. Sound familiar? The Cowboys, Packers, Colts, Jaguars and Patriots are 56-9 (86%) straight up and 47-17 (73%) against the spread! Yes, there are good teams that win a lot of games straight-up every year, but they don’t cover the spread at a 70%+ rate. Last year New England, San Diego, Indianapolis, Chicago and Baltimore combined for a 64-15 straight up mark, but were just 43-31 (58%) ATS. This year the top teams are covering 73% ATS.

Overall on the year, favorites are hitting at a 54% clip - the second highest of all time, right behind 2005! And over the past four weeks, favorites are covering at the unheard of rate of 68% (42-20). Last week was the pinnacle for favorites as they went 13-3 straight up and 12-4 ATS. Over the past month, home underdogs are 4-21 SU and 6-18-1 ATS.

In the face of those stats, it’s very hard or impossible for an underdog bettor to do well. This season most long-term professionals (and the sportsbooks) are struggling while the betting public (who love favorites) is doing unusually well.

So, a familiar question surfaces - one that reared its head in 2005. Is this a short term anomaly or the start of a long-term trend? Will dogs come roaring back (as they have done in 23 of the last 25 years) and even things out? Or will favorites continue to cover at an unheard-of rate? While none of us have a crystal ball, we all have an opinion. But only time will tell. At this point, all we can do is look in awe at what is shaping up to be the second-wackiest NFL betting season in the past quarter-century. If things continue like the past month, it may take over the “wackiest” title from 2005.