I promise not to be so long winded as in Part 1. Instead, with your indulgence, I’d like to share with you some theories I’ve turned into edicts for my own sports wagering. Maybe over the next several days you’ll find one of them to be worth your consideration.

A DUMB BET axiom that I came to a conclusion about several years ago is simply this: do not bet on a game pitting TWO BAD TEAMS versus each other! I’ve found this to be especially true in the NFL where games are difficult enough to predict. Here’s my reasoning. Bad teams can find numerous ways to screw up a game. They are capable of breakdowns in so many departments: kicking, penalties, turnovers. My God, how can you expect yourself to choose a winner in a game nobody deserves to win!

I tried betting totals in BAD VS. BAD contests. I can’t tell you how many goal line fumbles have screwed me or mid-field picks that go for scores the other way. I bet Cleveland a couple of years ago and lost an under wager on an offensive hold in the inzone on the final play of a game so lopsided everybody but the offending tackle was trying to run out the clock!! You just never know with bad teams.

Bet on good teams against good teams, average teams against good teams etc. Even bet on a bad team against a good or average team if there are really enough points to make it worth the risk. I personally hardly ever do that, either. Why, would you trust your hard earned money to teams like Cleveland or Miami or Oakland!!! Bet against them, sure. But don’t bet on some established loser just because this might be their week to snap out of it.

Of course, better players than me can always find exceptions. Last week offers a perfect example — Arizona at Oakland. Now, Wunderdog recommended Oakland. He was absolutely correct in that pick. I will confess right now that I ignored his advice without a second’s hesitation. I steered clear of both of those losers and don’t feel badly about it. That’s cause I can’t pick games like Wunderdog can. Furthermore, though I’ve made money on the majority of his picks once I make a rule I’m rarely going to detour from it because that’s when it bites me! And yes, I had Arizona the week before against Chicago –but that’s because they were getting a boatload of points at home. BAD VS. BAD rarely offers either side anough points to make the risk worth it. So right now, for whatever its worth if you see a matchup like Miami vs. Detroit or New Mexico State vs. Tulane if you run for the hills look for the big rock and you can keep me company –cause I’ll already be hunkered down behind it!