You wager a dime on a game you’ve thoroughly researched and feel strongly about in your gut, as well. And both tell you Chicago is going to blow out Arizona. And you lose–big. That was a BAD Bet. Okay. That sports betting. But then you wager a lousy half-dollar at the last minute on a game about which you know next-to-nothing and have little gut feeling one way or the other. And you win. You are a lucky S.O.B. That was a DUMB BET! Believe me, BAD Bets are inevitable. We all make ‘em. But if you can’t cure Dumb Bets you really need to find a less expensive pastime.
I was a dumb bettor for a very long time. And, though I still make the occasional stupid-as-hell wager I generally know it going in. Sometimes you just wanna play. But again, you can’t do that on a regular basis unless your bank account is bottomless. Here’s what I personally did to stem the flow of Dumb Bets.
First and foremost I regard the entire wagering process as a PROFESSIONAL hobby or business. Why not? Whether I bet a lot or a little, both my money and my ego are on the line! So after years of extremely mixed success I finally starting developing a BETTING METHODOLOGY. That process then lead me to some relatively hard and fast rules that I only break when winning money isn’t a priority. I will still make a Knowingly Dumb Bet on a game but I make minimum wagers on those type games and I am fully prepared to risk the loss financially and psychologically. I gotta tell you, betting on games just to have a stake on the outcome is thankfully becoming a rarer and rarer activity for me.
Let me ask you this? Do you ever bet against a team like Notre Dame just because you hate ‘em? Will you bet on Navy plus 14 this week because you want to show your support for the miitar? Do you bet against Navy because you were in the marines and hate all swabbies? You know yourself that many people make bets for just such idiotic reasons. Win or lose these are Dumb bets! Do you make ‘em? Those are obvious examples. Other Dumb Bets are not so easy to ferret out. But if you truly want to be successful you’ve got to start eliminating them. And a key indicator that you’re making some Dumb Bets is if you are an extremely streaky player. You’ve got potential — but what you need is a CONSIST METHODOLOGY!
So let me quickly outline my WAGERING METHODOLOGY — it turned my career in a much more profitable direction. I keep a Betting Journal. In my computer I record each wager I intend to make and the REASONS why I chose the team or the total and why I choose to wager the amount I did. Got that? Not just the bet and the amount the but the REASONS for both! I do this everytime.
Now, how I research games in for an entirely separate article. But I’m not at all reluctant to tell you that I pay for advice. I’m a Wunderdog fan. But I don’t regard his or any other handicapper’s advice as gospel. But sometimes these professional insights keep me from making ill-informed Dumb Bets.
Now, because of time contraints sometime I have to wager before I can get to my Betting Journal but as soon as possible I record my wagers and rationales. But let me tell you this: when I do the recording of my bets BEFORE placing them I generally enjoy a higher degree of success! Sometimes, I discover in writing down my reasons that they are weak and I’ll wager less or not at all. And sometimes I realize that I feel much stronger about a game than I had first realized and I’ll up my wager from the originally intended amount.
So my very strong advice is keep a Betting Journal and stay organized enough so that you can write out out your selections and wager amounts before actually placing them. Now, I know many readers have no intention of taking this advice. Why? Because it sounds too much like work. Hey, do you want to win occasionally or consistently? Do they pay you at your job whether you show up or not? Same thing with sports betting. You’d better treat it like a job if you expect to be paid. But believe me, this is a job you’ll quickly come to enjoy as you see your success improve. At least, that’s what happened to me.
Next step: sometime each evening or the following day I REVIEW the results in my Betting Journal and try to determine where I was right and where I was wrong. Sometimes this has little to do with whether I won or lost. We’ve all had lucky wins and all suffered bad beats. That’s simply going to happen. But the difference in bad, good and great sports gamblers is how much they learn from both their wins and their losses! So I make further notes in my Betting Journal under each wager entry. Don’t you love computers! Its so easy to make these entries.
The REVIEW entry also requires that you not only research the games before you bet them but research them after they’re decided! This is when you learn what you’ve done right and wrong! Don’t just go by the scores! The internet is a tremendous resource and its easy to review everything pertinent to a game you’ve bet on. If the kicking game decided the outcome had you considered that before hand? Did those special teams deliver as you’d calculated? There are an infinite number of factors and each time you record the actual reasons for a win or loss and compare them to the reasons you earlier recorded for your bets you’ll LEARN!
Now, if you’ve actually been reading this article then perhaps you’re interested in what I’ve learned from my METHODOLOGY. Over the next couple of days I’ll outline for you specific DUMB bets I discovered I was making. They go beyond the usual failure to research. I believe you may find that you are guilty of them, too. And please know, I’m flattered that you are reading my entries. And I thank Wunderdog for giving me this opportunity.
(Simeon Smith is a former television sportscaster now retired and living in Atlanta.)