!NAME_COMMA!

Well, the AL East comes down to this Red Sox/Yankees series. Doesn't get any better than this. While we don't have a pick in that matchup, we do have two strong picks tonight in bases...

Good luck today...

***TORONTO -145 over Kansas City (7:05 Eastern)

KC took two of four on the road vs. Minnesota. Won't happen here. Toronto is 12-6 over KC over the past three seasons including 7-2 north of the border. Josh Towers has been consistently good all season long and while Grienke has been hot lately, Towers is the better pitcher this year. The bullpen difference is huge - 3.47 home ERA for Toronto vs. 5.36 road ERA for the Royals. Kansas City really struggles on turf (0-3 this year with 3.7 runs per game) while the Jays score 4.8 per game at home. Kansas City is 3-22 this season on the road after a high scoring game where 15+ runs were scored. They shot their wad last night and won't be scoring 10 here again tonight. Teams off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher starting a hot pitcher with an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts are just 22-54 (29%) over the past five seasons. Also, road teams starting a pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL) who's off a game in which he gave up no earned runs are 9-28 (24%) since 1997. Good value on this line due to Kansas City's and Grienke's recent success. But, don't let it fool you. Toronto for three stars.

***NY METS -152 over Colorado (7:10 Eastern)

The Mets have quietly won 9 of 11 games, determined to finish the season on a positive note. Colorado is coasting along playing .500 ball, which is an improvement for them. Colorado's going to run into trouble tonight. The Rockies are 0-8 over the past three seasons as Shea. Tonight they face Kris Benson who pitches very well at home. Going for the Rocks is Byung-Hyun Kim who is pitching very poorly right now (6.00 ERA over his last three starts). While improved lately on the road, the Rockies still have trouble producing runs away from the Mile High city. The Mets are scoring 6.0 runs per game of late and should be able to keep this one out of reach for Colorado. This is the fifth road game in a row for Colorado and they are 7-25 this year after 4+ road games. The Mets are hot and while Colorado is improved, they are in a tough situation here. Three stars on New York.